Preparing for the Sunset of the 2017 Tax Reform Act
Wealth Management
JUNE 21, 2024
Some strategic actions and best practices in the wake of the sunsetting of the 2017 Tax Reform and Jobs Act in 2025.
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Wealth Management
JUNE 21, 2024
Some strategic actions and best practices in the wake of the sunsetting of the 2017 Tax Reform and Jobs Act in 2025.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 10, 2025
The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. Note that months-of-supply is higher than 6 of the last 8 years, and at the same level as in 2017. Since both inventory and sales have fallen significantly, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply.
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Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 27, 2024
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2024 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, up from 2.7 percent in September, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 16, 2025
compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8%
Calculated Risk
MARCH 20, 2025
compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9%
Calculated Risk
APRIL 9, 2025
The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. Note that months-of-supply is higher than 6 of the last 8 years, and at the same level as in 2017. Since both inventory and sales have fallen significantly, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply.
Nerd's Eye View
JULY 4, 2025
without a scheduled sunset) the lower individual tax rates enacted as part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), increasing the estate and gift tax exemption (which was scheduled to revert to approximately $7.14
Wealth Management
MARCH 11, 2024
Fidelity shook up its senior management ranks last month.
Calculated Risk
MAY 29, 2025
compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.7%
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 31, 2024
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2024 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.7 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.7 percent in August, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 5, 2025
percent in January, the highest reading in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017. On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 22, 2024
We can assume the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be extended. There were many promises made during the campaign that obviously will not happen (deport 20 million people, no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security benefits, 200% tariffs, and on and on). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Q4-over-Q4).
Calculated Risk
MARCH 28, 2025
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2025 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY , up from 2.7 percent in January, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 14, 2025
percent of its 2017 average, total IP in January was 2.0 Manufacturing output declined 0.1 percent in January, held down by a 5.2 percent decrease in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The index for mining fell 1.2 percent, while the index for utilities jumped 7.2 percent, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 3, 2025
million SAAR in the January 2017-2020 period. However, sales in January, at 4.08 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were down from December and still historically low. Sales averaged almost 5.5 So, sales were still about 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 28, 2025
million SAAR for the month of March in the 2017-2019 period. Also, months-of-supply for March was above pre-pandemic levels for the period 2017-2019. Sales at 4.02 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were below the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawlers estimate was very close (as usual).
Calculated Risk
MAY 26, 2025
million SAAR for the month of April in the 2017-2019 period. Also, months-of-supply for April was above pre-pandemic levels for the period 2017-2019 and the highest for April since 2016. Sales at 4.00 Sales averaged close to 5.4 So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels. Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 31, 2025
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2024 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.8 percent in November, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 17, 2025
compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2%
Calculated Risk
JULY 31, 2022
Here is a graph from Mortgagenewsdaily.com that shows the 30-year mortgage rate since 2017. After reaching 6.28% on June 14th, 30-year mortgage rates decreased to 5.13% on Friday according to Mortgagenewsdaily.com. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.66%, likely due to the weaker economy.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 2, 2025
Source : S&P 500s 2024 Rally Shocked Forecasters Expecting It to Fizzle By Alexandra Semenova and Sagarika Jaisinghani Bloomberg, December 29, 2024 See also : My Year-End Stock Market Forecast (December 10, 2024) All those 2025 mortgage rates forecasts are now wrong By Mike Simonsen Housing Wire, December 19, 2024 Previously : Coming March 18: (..)
Calculated Risk
APRIL 30, 2025
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2025 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6 percent YoY , down from 3.0 percent in January, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 4, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: IICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" A brief excerpt: And on Florida inventory: Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months • In fact, six of the nine markets seeing the strongest inventory growth over the (..)
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 3, 2024
The abrupt firing this week of Dan Arnold, who took over as LPL's CEO in 2017 and once told the firm’s advisors that his mission was about “taking care of you, so you can take care of your clients,” is proving a shock.
Calculated Risk
MAY 8, 2025
compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.1%
Calculated Risk
MARCH 7, 2025
percent, the highest reading in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017. On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. in August 2017 and 4.3 Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply. Note that months-of-supply is higher than the last 3 years (2021 - 2023), and above August 2019. Months-of-supply was at 4.2
Calculated Risk
JUNE 13, 2025
compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% higher than this time last year.
Calculated Risk
MAY 30, 2025
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April 2025 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.5 percent YoY , down from 2.6 percent the previous month, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image.
Wealth Management
JANUARY 16, 2025
Graham, who joined Cambridge in 2017, stepped down from his role on Dec. The IBD is currently searching for a replacement.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 28, 2024
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is on the cusp of expiration. What that could could mean for you.
The Big Picture
JUNE 27, 2025
Peneva joined Swiss Re in 2017, becoming co-head of client solutions & analytics, before being named Group Chief Investment Office and member of the Group Executive Comittee in 2023. She explains the importance of matching your assets to your future liabilities, and why liquidity and quality are so important.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 16, 2025
percent of its 2017 average, total IP in March was 1.3 The March decline was led by a 5.8 percent drop in the index for utilities, as temperatures were warmer than is typical for the month. In contrast, the indexes for manufacturing and mining grew 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. percent above its year-earlier level.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 23, 2025
compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For December, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 22.0% YoY, but still down 15.7% above year-ago levels.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 13, 2023
And below is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010, 2021, and 2030 (projections are from the Census Bureau, 2017 ). Note that the largest age group is in the early-to-mid 30s. There is also a large cohort in their early 20s. Note the younger baby boom generation dominated in 2010.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 18, 2022
percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in September was 5.3 In September, manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent after advancing a similar amount in the previous month. The index for mining moved up 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities fell 0.3 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up 0.2
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 9, 2025
It quickly became a perennial favorite on Nerd's Eye View, and so I've updated it every year, with new lists of books in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and a fresh round last year in 2024.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 30, 2024
million SAAR in November 2017, 2018, and 2019. The big story for November was that existing home sales increased year-over-year (YoY) for the second time since July 2021 (October was the first). However, sales in November, at 4.15 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were still historically low. Sales averaged about 4.5
Nerd's Eye View
MAY 16, 2025
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that Republicans in the House of Representatives this week released their long-awaited tax plan to address the impending sunset of many measures in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Treasury Bond (May 19, 2016) Last Call for 50-Year Treasury Bonds (March 16, 2017) Deficit Spending Should Be Counter-Cyclical Not Pro-Cyclical (August 28, 2017) Can We Please Have an Honest Debate About Tax Policy? This is what happens to nations governed by 535 innumerate asshats… Previously : Time for a 50-Year U.S.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 3, 2025
On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index currently sits at 7 percent, marking a new record high in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017.
Calculated Risk
MAY 15, 2025
percent of its 2017 average, total IP in April was 1.5 In April, manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.3 The index for mining fell 0.3 percent, and the index for utilities rose 3.3 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged down to 77.7 percent, a rate that is 1.9
The Big Picture
MARCH 13, 2025
I have known Scott Galloway since way before his first book, The Four , came out in 2017. He had been on MiB prior, and it was my pleasure to intro it at NYU Stern when it first was published.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 27, 2025
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May 2025 (2017 dollars). The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.7 percent YoY , up from 2.5 percent in April, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022. Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
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