Meb Faber Research

JULY 20, 2025

At around 25% of the total, or approximately $30 trillion, the US is the world’s dominant economy. However, many investors assume the share of the pie is much bigger. Likewise, if you ask investors what share of GDP do the emerging markets represent, 90% underestimate that emerging markets are a MAJORITY of global GDP.

Economy

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 4, 2025

1997 had the Asian Contagion, 1998 the Russian Default, and 2010 the European Banking Crisis. The Economy Is Currently Being Held Up By AI This was a big week if you wanted to get a picture of the economy, inflation, and even policy (both monetary and tariffs). The economy created 73,000 jobs in July. Let’s dig in.

Marketing

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers showed a 3.6% Markets The U.S. stock market is set for its best two-year performance since 1997-98. wsj.com) After a good start, energy sector performance has faded. rise in national home prices.

Media

The Big Picture

JULY 1, 2025

So it was Pascal then c plus plus, and then I took an economics class and that’s when the lights went off because it was a very mathematical field in many ways, but also with a link to the Rio economy. So what’s happening with the global economy, what’s happening with interest rates, what is the Fed going to do?

Investing

The Better Letter

JANUARY 2, 2025

As always, I lead with Wall Street, the markets, and the economy, the objects of my day job. So far, since 2010, solar energy has outperformed every single prediction. 2024 wasn’t any different. How will the market perform? ” There are 46 iterations of iPhone and about 1.4 billion users.

Management

The Big Picture

JANUARY 29, 2025

Barry Ritholtz : 1967 seems like a long time, different economy, different market, different credit cycle. Hold aside how the incumbent party loses with the economy up as much as it was in the stock market up that much. It’s how the government manipulates the economy to stay in power. If the third year is the strongest.

Investing

Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

We had a 100-year pandemic that shut down the global economy and then a second vicious 25% bear market in 2022. Across 2024: Overall household debt grew by 3% Disposable income grew by 5% In some ways, thats what driving the economy, even as households become less levered. Think about all of this a little more. of disposable income.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JULY 11, 2025

Rising Deficits Have Boosted Profits in the Past Over the long run, market returns are mostly driven by profit growth, which depends on the economy. It’s the net result of saving and consumption by four sectors of the economy: households, businesses, governments, and the rest of the world via trade. public and private.

Taxes

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

During President Trump's terms (Orange), the economy has lost 1,853,000 private sector jobs. Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. During Mr. Trump's terms, the economy lost 517,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic).

Economy

Discipline Funds

FEBRUARY 1, 2025

But I find it very compelling from the perspective of any 3rd world economy, especially those with unstable authoritarian economies. 3) The Return of the 2010s? One of my dominant themes over the last few years was the theory that the post-Covid economy would eventually mean revert right back to the pre-Covid economy.

Insurance

Trade Brains

AUGUST 3, 2025

These purchases reflect rising foreign interest in core and growth-driven sectors of the Indian economy. Originally part of Triveni Engineering, it was demerged in 2010 to become an independent engineering company focused on energy-efficient solutions. In Q1FY26, the Government of Singapore acquired a 1.10

Investing

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

At The Money: Jeff Hirsch Why Big Federal Spending Plus Inflation = Superbooms (February, 19 2025) Wars, national defense spending, technology innovations historically, these have had big impacts on the economy. Tell us a little bit about what you were looking at in 2010 that said, hey, we could get to 39,000 in 15 years.

Economy

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

During Trump's first term (Orange), the economy lost 2,178,000 private sector jobs. Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. During Trump's term, the economy lost 537,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic). Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).

Economy

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

Trade makes up ~ 70% of both economies GDP. Whereas exports are not a significant piece of the US economy. The economy is likely to see headwinds for housing and some cyclical sectors of the economy from elevated rates and business investment could be muted due to tariffs (as it was in late 2019). of GDP in 2015.

Taxes

The Better Letter

JANUARY 10, 2025

In 2010, Exxon stayed at number one (oil prices had skyrocketed over the previous ten years), Microsoft moved up to third, GE fell to fifth, and Walmart stayed sixth, but only Exxon grew its market cap significantly (Microsoft’s was basically flat; GE’s and Walmart’s fell). All 1990 list members are gone by 2010.

Numbers

The Better Letter

MARCH 18, 2025

During the 2010 World Cup, Paul the Octopus picked the correct winner of eight-straight matches, including the final (his odds of doing so were one in 256 ). NARRATOR: “Next time you are tempted to make a market prediction, you might recall that the global economy has a few more than 52 variables.”

Numbers

Abnormal Returns

JULY 25, 2025

(youtube.com) Energy Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Nicholas Muller, a Carnegie Mellon University economist and author of the new paper, "Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010." podcasts.apple.com) Laurence Kotlikoff talks energy with Peter Fox Penner, Partner and Chief Impact Officer of Energy Impact Partners.

Portfolio Management

Calculated Risk

JUNE 10, 2025

During President Trump's terms (Orange), the economy has lost 1,671,000 private sector jobs. Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. During Mr. Trump's terms, the economy lost 536,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic).

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age group is now increasing. And this is a positive for the economy.

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be. So I think some pundits have it backwards: Instead of a strong local economy keeping housing afloat, I think the bursting housing bubble will significantly impact housing dependent local economies.

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? October 2, 2017) Deficit Chicken Hawks vs Ronald Reagan (July 13, 2010) Politics & Investing The post Catastrophizing Debt appeared first on The Big Picture. population?

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Click on graph for larger image.

Economy

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

Though annual appreciation was still strong, it slowed from the previous month for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced buyer demand in part due to higher mortgage rates and worries about a slowing economy. by June 2023, bringing home price growth close to the long run average from 2010 to 2020.

Economy

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

This now marks the lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010 , although it is reassuring that the pace of this decline is less rapid and the broader economy showed improvement in January,” said Kermit Baker, PhD, AIA Chief Economist. Any score below 50.0 indicates decreasing business conditions.

Economy

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. This is now happening , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

Morningstar, August 9, 2010. Dangerous for economy. Russel Kinnel. Previously : Don’t Blame Morningstar for Our Own Shortcomings (October 26, 2017). Top 10 Investor Errors: Excess Fees (June 30, 2012). Passive investing is: Marxist. Devouring capitalism. Reached a mania. Lobotomized investing. Poses a frightening systemic risk.

Taxes

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends).

Economy

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.

Sales

The Big Picture

MARCH 10, 2023

The FOMC seems a little panicky; the result is the Fed is breaking things throughout the economy. What we got instead was a spike in inflation that was initially ignored, and then belatedly overcompensated for. The Federal Reserve has become the bear in the China shop. There are many errors Jerome Powell & Co.

Banking

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 5, 2023

These were some of the prevailing narratives from the post-GFC world: We only had a bull market in the 2010s because of the Fed juicing the economy. The Fed was trying to juice the economy in the 2010. The only reason tech stocks did well is because of low interest rates.

Economy

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

Full transcript below. ~~~ Previously : Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010) Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (April 12, 2011) ~~~ Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. You’re looking at what just took place.

Marketing

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Back in the autumn of 2001, he noticed that when the US economy was struggling due to the recession, lipstick sales were actually going up instead of down. Keep reading to find out what they are!

Economy