Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged at 3.7 This is below pre-recession levels and near the fewest part time workers (for economic reasons) in over 20 years.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” 40%) probability of happening.

Banking 295

Banking Economy Economics 295

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). And that means prices probably won’t decline sharply like in 2008 when prices fell about 12% according to the Case-Shiller National Index. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). Here is a table of the participation rate and unemployment rate since 2008.

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

The Big Picture

JULY 21, 2023

Since 2008, the Census Bureau has included government transfers in its Supplemental Poverty Measure. Or is anything economic Phil Gramm touches simply destined to be a dumpster fire of lies, foolishness, and incompetency? ” In 2008. It is untrue. Sheer stupidity? You may remember Phil Gramm.

Math 246

Math Government Economics Food 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2022

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit the six percent mark for the first time since 2008 – rising to 6.01 percent – which is essentially double what it was a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

Government 319

Government Economics Marketing Marketing 319

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. To sum up, the Fed was late to recognize post 9/11 the impact their ultra low rates were having; Post 2008-09 crisis, they kept rates at zero until 2015, post Covid, they kept rates at zero despite inflation and market signals.

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 million, changed little in October.

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 YoY in November.

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2024

From Lance Lambert at ResiClub: Renowned housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market Here is the intro: Years before the housing bubble burst in 2008, housing analyst Bill McBride began chronicling the troubles in the U.S. housing market in his blog Calculated Risk.

Marketing 173

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 173

The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2023

It’s rare to see stocks as hated as they were in the middle of 2008-09, but that is a very contrarian signal. The bearish signals I am gathering for next week seem to be primarily fundamental or economic in nature… Previously : Observations to Start 2023 (January 3, 2023) Groping for a Bottom (October 14, 2022) The post Bull or Bear?

Retail 296

Retail Banking Marketing Marketing 296

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69

Economics 305

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 305

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining growing balances of home equity lines of credit (HELOC). “ Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. rise from 2024Q1.

Retail 325

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 325

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1%

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

"Credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances continued to increase in the third quarter of 2022 reflecting a combination of robust consumer demand and higher prices," said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013.

Banking 324

Banking Accounting Economics 324

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

Interest rates are heading higher, and the economic toll from the rapid, ongoing rise in the cost of credit is only starting to unfold. New York Times ). • Global Biodiversity: A Stable Ecosystem Yields Stable Economics : The U.N. . • New York Times ). • Global Biodiversity: A Stable Ecosystem Yields Stable Economics : The U.N.

Nonprofit 276

Nonprofit Asset Allocation Economy Economics 276

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 16, 2022

History suggests that the Fed’s recognition of key market and economic indicators also is on an excessive lag. Consider : In the 2010s, the Fed remained on emergency footing from 2008, when they took rates to 0 (zero) until December 2015 (this created lots of distortions). The result is Fed is always late to the party.

Economics 310

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 310

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

percent, its highest level since mid-2008. After a brief pause in July, mortgage rates have increased more than a percentage point over the past six weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The 30-year fixed rate was 6.52

Economics 237

Economics 237

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. “The rise from 2023Q2.

Retail 314

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 314

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investments 278

The Big Picture

MARCH 21, 2023

Why 2023 is Not 2008 : But that is incomparable to the 2008-09 era, where every financial institution had consumed CDOs, where toxic sub-prime loans were securitized into ticking time bombs. Even in the market of good intentions, however, it’s important to provide some economic incentives to drive organizations.

Banking 286

Banking Investments Investing Management 286

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. Economic Innovation Group ). • My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • When is a Bear Market Over? Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time. How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S.

Communication 295

Communication Startup Management Economics 295

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 5, 2022

Bitcoin mining in the crypto crash — the mining companies’ creative accounting : Bitcoin miners used to be ruthless economic agents, in it for the money. In 2008, he received the George Polk Award for financial reporting. Wall Street Journal ). Amy Castor ).

Accounting 276

Accounting Economics Assets Investments 276

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. The post- 2008-09 era saw wealth inequality, already substantial in the United States, explode. I wrote a book about this).

Medicine 330

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 330

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 15, 2024

It was the worst economic period most of us have ever lived through. The 2008 crash wiped out $11 trillion in wealth, Housing prices were down by nearly 30%. The stock market crashed almost 60%. The unemployment rate hit double-digits. The collective net worth of American households reached roughly $66 trillion by the end of 2007.

Economics 141

Economics Marketing Marketing 141

Darrow Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

During times of economic, financial, and political uncertainty, investors often wonder where to invest or what changes to make to their portfolio. The chart below shows what happened to fixed income (bonds) in 2008. The returns are normalized total returns of various bond indices during the 2008 -2009 financial crisis.

Marketing 54

Marketing Marketing Retirement Portfolio 54

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

percent – the highest since October 2008,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “As Mortgage rates followed suit last week, increasing across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate jumping 24 basis points to 6.25

Economy 239

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 239

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 5, 2023

stock market has, on average, outperformed international equities over the last 15 years since emerging from the Great Recession of 2008, many investors argue that international diversification is a poor allocation of dollars that would otherwise be earning more in the U.S. Given the current (as of March 2023) economic positions for the U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Portfolio Investments 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2023: How much will job growth slow in 2023? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Zoe Financial

APRIL 7, 2025

Economic Update: Market reaction: The sell-off reflects uncertainty, not full confidence that the tariffs will hold negotiations are expectedarket reaction: The sell-off reflects uncertainty, not full confidence that the tariffs will hold negotiations are expected. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.

Marketing 81

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Financial Advisor 81

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). Here is a table of the participation rate and unemployment rate since 2008.

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

in 2023, hitting levels of activity that haven’t been recorded since 2008,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for DCN. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. Over the month, commercial planning grew 1.0% and institutional planning improved 6.1%. “

Planning 182

Planning Economics 182

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 11, 2022

Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 a number of macro doom-and-gloomers began predicting a collapse of the U.S. It was an appealing narrative if you were someone stuck in the negative feedback loop of the biggest economic crash since the Great Depression. The Fed was “printing” trillions of dollars.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economics 145

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Our planet has done this about 4.54

Economy 327

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 327

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

He serves on the advisory board of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. It was a huge price decline where syndicators got stuck, very reminiscent of the 2008-09 era for banks. Private direct non-bank lenders stepped into the void, creating both risks and opportunities. Currently, he is Vice Chairman of IBM.

Management 179

Management Medical Portfolio Management Economics 179

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

If you got unlucky in 2008 trying to time the market and you were down 39%, it is very difficult emotionally speaking to reverse course and try to time the market by buying. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Investments 98