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The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post analyzing borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. trillion at the end of June 2025.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 YoY in October.
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2008 0.1% -2.5% in 2024 (around 2.6%
This week, we speak with New York Times Global Economic Correspondent Peter Goodman. Prior to the New York Times, Peter began his career as a freelance writer in Southeast Asia before serving as The Washington Post’s Asia Economic Correspondent and later Shanghai Bureau Chief.
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining delinquency rates in the auto loan market. said Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining student loan delinquency, including which borrowers were past due in the first quarter and implications for their access to other credit. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. rise from 2024Q4.
Other years that saw big returns after down days were 2003, 2008, 2009, 2020, and of course now. Yes, 2008 was a horrible year for stocks, but those other three years all were solid years after hiccups in the first quarter. The tariff mess in April led some forecasters to predict an economic crash as early as this summer.
If you got unlucky in 2008 trying to time the market and you were down 39%, it is very difficult emotionally speaking to reverse course and try to time the market by buying. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate.
Key Topics Covered: Markets and Macroeconomic Reality Elliott dismantles the notion that markets can permanently detach from economic fundamentals, walking through how earnings, margins, and wage growth are all interconnected. He explains why claims of “this time it’s different” rarely hold true over longer time horizons.
During times of economic, financial, and political uncertainty, investors often wonder where to invest or what changes to make to their portfolio. The chart below shows what happened to fixed income (bonds) in 2008. The returns are normalized total returns of various bond indices during the 2008 -2009 financial crisis.
David Armstrong , Executive Director, Content and User Engagement at WealthManagement.com June 10, 2025 Economic uncertainty, heightened volatility and on-again, off-again trade policies are challenging for investors.
No one has enough control to drive the economic car in a single direction. And while politicians will often take credit for certain outcomes the reality is that the US economic vehicle is being driven by hardworking people who wake up every day and strive to be a little bit better.
Those other times we saw fear similar to this were times like the recession and near bear market of 1990, October 2008 and March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis, and the end of the bear market in 2022. And lower exports are a drag on US economic growth. Heres the catch. Wait, Is GDP Growth Really Going To Be Negative in Q1?
Economic Update: Market reaction: The sell-off reflects uncertainty, not full confidence that the tariffs will hold negotiations are expectedarket reaction: The sell-off reflects uncertainty, not full confidence that the tariffs will hold negotiations are expected. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.
The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in November was in 2008, and it has been higher 11 of the past 12 years. If economic growth is expected to be strong, there’s presumably less reason for the Fed to cut rates by a lot. However, to a first approximation, yields are essentially expected Fed policy rates in the future.
But if you were to guess just how much of the total the US represents, likely you’d be wrong. At around 25% of the total, or approximately $30 trillion, the US is the world’s dominant economy. rara) Deploy mode: deploy uid: 687dca94d918f -->
She also shared that she gained a lot of understanding by watching her mentorher mother, also a financial advisorhelp clients navigate the rough waters of the economic collapse in 2008. These volatile conditions reward strategic, creative and calm investors,” she said.
It is the most for a Republican President since 1988, but it trails the 365 (2008) and 332 (2012) President Obama won in his two elections. Potential higher deficits, more spending, better economic growth and tariffs (which are potentially inflationary) were all cited as reasons for the move higher. That’s well above the 4.1%
Think of investors who sold during the financial crisis of 2008-09, only to miss one of the strongest bull markets in history. By investing in multiple asset classes, which have varying drivers of returns, your portfolio might be positioned to weather different market and economic environments.
economy still has challenges, especially lingering inflation and poor consumer sentiment, many important economic metrics are outperforming the 2008 cycle (the most recent nonpandemic business cycle and the cycle in which the first Trump administration began), and some are even at historical highs. Table 1 below summarizes recent U.S.
Each of these asset classes tends to perform well in different economic regimes, making the All Weather strategy a compelling option for long-term investors who prioritize consistency and downside protection. All Weather Portfolio: Asset Class Behavior Across Economic Regimes Asset Class Performs Well In Why It’s Included U.S.
A short excerpt from his write-up of our conversation : “In my conversation with Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management and host of Bloomberg’s “Masters in Business” podcast, we explored market and real estate cycles, caution, and capital allocation in today’s increasingly unpredictable economic environment.
However, shifting economic conditions, a potential rate-cut cycle, and valuation opportunities have created a renewed focus on small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in financials and energy. This bracket focuses on who benefits most when the Russia-Ukraine war ends and economic rebuilding begins.
From the fund page : the goal is seeking stable returns across a variety of economic and financial market conditions, consistent with the preservation of capital. And since the other funds came along, RYMFX has shown to not be such a great representation of the strategy even though it helped in 2008.
It upped its view of economic growth and said things looked pretty good on the economic front. Notably, there was no SCR in 2000 and 2008, not the best times for investors, and potentially a major warning that something wasnt right. The S&P 500 is only 3.6% Then what else did the Fed say on Wednesday?
Issues are More Gray Than Black or White Journalists – most of whom have little investing experience – like to authoritatively paint economic issues in black-or-white terms. Or are these risks being overstated and distorted by media outlets that chase monetary gains? Source: NewsWeek Financial Crisis Depression 2.0
Low Debt Levels (Long-Term Debt Net Current Assets) Limiting debt helps safeguard a companys financial health, especially during economic downturns. The worst years include 2008 ( -27.2% ), 2018 ( -22.6% ), and 2015 ( -22.1% ). However, like many value strategies, it has also faced challenging periods.
The “whiplash theme” of the current administration’s economic agenda necessitates investor readiness to adjust to sudden changes in fiscal policy. Uncertainty and unpredictability given the difficulty of economic forecasting due to the unusual level of policy influence in the market right now. Better client outcomes in turbulent times.
And then when I left the journal for the first time in 2008, they said, well, who should we hire to replace you? 00:16:42 [Speaker Changed] Coming into sort of late 2008, I think, if I recall correctly, I was somewhere between 70 and 80% stocks by that point. I did it in 2008 in oh nine. I said, Jason’s wife.
Consider the following tailwinds benefitting the new president: Strong Economy: The broadest measurement of economic activity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), registered a healthy +2.8% growth rate for Q3 Resilient Jobs Market: The just-reported unemployment rate of 4.1% today is representative of a strong but slowing job market.
Laura has been inspiring people with the Money Girl podcast since 2008. Our favorite episode of Journey to Launch: How to Stay Financially Grounded in Uncertain Times addresses what to do during uncertain economic times. Her mission is to help her listeners live rich and enjoy the journey with her. addresses 7.
Combined, these negative side effects have the potential of significantly dampening economic growth. As you may recall, much of the 2022 decline was caused by the Fed slamming on the economic breaks with its fastest rate-hiking cycle in four decades (raising rates from 0.0% per year) because of the -20% hit on stocks during 2022.
Headlines were ablaze with bold predictions of economic calamity. Doom-and-gloom calls often rely on logical-sounding arguments rooted in economic data, but markets are forward-looking and dynamic. Famous for : Correctly predicting the 2008 housing collapse. Lets rewind to December 2023. They adapt. Policymakers adjust.
But before we get to that, let’s start with Bachelor’s in economics from Hamilton, MBA from NYU. And a friend of mine who had gotten fired from this economic consulting firm, got a job at Chase Econometrics, IDC, and said, you have to come over here. But in 2008 in the financial crisis, I turned 50. It’s crazy.
That’s one reason why the 2008–2009 recession was as bad as it was—households were much more levered and when unemployment rose and home prices fell, everything crashed. The greater the leverage, the harder the crash (like in 2008-2009). But it’s worth discussing how large these risks are (or are not).
MLB was last to the instant replay party, finally adding it to check on home runs on August 28, 2008, nine years after Frank Pulli dipped his toe into the water. Over more than a decade (2008-2019), Major League home-plate umpires made every pitch call correctly on one team roughly twice per season. The NBA followed suit in 2002.
In fact, there’s a national accounting identity that precisely relates profits to the various components of GDP, called the Levy-Kalecki profit equation: What it captures is the various sources of profits on a broad economic level. increases profits. The idea is that one business’s investment is another business’s revenue, and profits.
You get a bachelor’s in economics from Colgate and then an MBA in finance from NYU Stern. I was an economics and English major. So 2008, you know, as you remember, Barry fourth quarter was chaotic. So let’s start with your background. Sounds like you had been thinking about finance as a career right from the start.
During financial stress—like the 2008 crisis or the COVID crash in 2020—CDS prices surge as investors seek protection. While the name-calling is colorful, the economic pressure is real: U.S. Today, however, CDS prices are falling across both high-yield (junk bonds) and investment-grade (Blue Chip) debt. GDP contracted -0.5% in Q1 2025.
The world order started changing in 2008 when significant quantitative easing (QE) – money printing and near-zero interest rates, was announced by major central banks led by the US Fed during the subprime crisis. Any attempts to reduce quantitative easing lead to stock market tantrums and economic slowdown.
They speak at the Petroleum Club of Houston and the Economic Club in New York; they present at Stanford and Yale and everywhere in between. He reminded the House members that the Federal Reserves charter was to maintain high employment and low inflation.
Economic Update: Soft Data: Sentiment indicators continue to weaken. Recession Risk: Risk exists, but no major imbalances like in 2008. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.
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