article thumbnail

New Year, New Clean Slate

Investing Caffeine

More specifically, in a typical bear market, the economy generally slows down causing demand to decelerate, and interest rates to decline, which causes the values of bonds to increase. And if it’s not declining home prices, lower energy prices have also filtered through the global economy to lower transportation and shipping costs (e.g.,

Economy 59
article thumbnail

Market Outlook: 3 Reasons Long-Term Investors Should Be Optimistic

Darrow Wealth Management

For much of last year, even good news about the economy was bad news for markets. Since 1926, stocks were down four consecutive years only once (between 1929 and 1932), three years in a row twice (latest being 2000 to 2002), and one instance of back-to-back losses (between 1974 and 1975). stocks (S&P 500) on record.

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Bracketology (2024 Edition)

The Better Letter

In June 2002, electrician Mike McDermott won £194,501 on the UK National Lottery after correctly choosing five numbers and the bonus ball. NARRATOR: “Next time you are tempted to make a market prediction, you might recall that the global economy has a few more than 52 variables.”

Numbers 82
article thumbnail

Math Problems

The Better Letter

In June 2002, electrician Mike McDermott won £194,501 on the UK National Lottery after correctly choosing five numbers and the bonus ball. Note to self: The global economy has many more than 52 variables. Fast-forward four months to October and Mike was still playing. As Han Solo said, “Never tell me the odds.”

Math 93
article thumbnail

Forecasting Follies 2024

The Better Letter

The economy, the markets, and the world-at-large provide unlimited fodder for them. It’s physics’ three-body problem applied to the global economy’s trillions of inputs. Bernstein, “Forecasting: Fables, Failures, and Futures – Continued,” in Economics and Portfolio Strategy , November 15, 2002, p.

Economy 95
article thumbnail

Forecasting Follies

The Better Letter

trillion into the economy in addition to the $4.1 In 1998, the then-future Nobel laureate Paul Krugman made a remarkable and erroneous prediction : “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” Inflation was already hot.

Economy 116