The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7, the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings).
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The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Glamour is a supernatural form of mental compulsion or influence that is specific to vampires. Glamouring is similar to hypnosis, and while all vampires have this power, it needs to be taught as it does not appear to come naturally… The process of glamouring begins with eye contact between a vampire and a respondent. Once eye contact is made, the respondent is held in a trance, making them susceptible to the pow.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
RV parks have grown in popularity with consumers during the pandemic. Investors have noticed the trend.
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The office of the CFO is rapidly evolving, with more and more demands being placed upon the finance and accounting team each year. Join us in this webinar, where we share 8 things to NOT do when it comes to helping the CFO office advance in supporting the business. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how best to support an organization's finance leadership.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
I wonder how far my view of the universe is from (objective) reality. My pal Dave Nadig suggests that we are all much further away from any sort of recognition of the true universe than we suspect. We chatted about this last week, and the more I thought about it, the further away from reality it turns out that we actually are. Best I can figure, we may all be at least six degrees 1 away from truly comprehending, well, anything: 1.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 12, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 45% above one year ago.
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Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
The most critical expertise needed is in the areas of taxes, legal title, recognition, liquidity and premiums.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Gregor Macdonald, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the latest on the Sam Bankman-Fried saga, the inverted yield curve, electrification of the power grid, the growth of electric vehicles, peak oil, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000 , a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 225,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
So, the whole house is down with Covid. I had some minor symptoms I assumed were vaccine side effects, but I kept testing negative. By the time I tested positive it was way too late for Paxlovid. I isolated to keep everyone else safe. Too late! Mrs. Big Picture went from no symptoms to full-on flu 2 days after me. Paxlovid helped her dramatically — she went from worse than me to much better in 24 hours.
Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant
Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
They do the work to strengthen their interpersonal skills.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal. Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible I's unusual for the Fed to be this candid but Kansas City Fed President Esther George says Reducing Inflation Without a Rece
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Reaches $16.51 trillion in Q3 2022; Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Decline The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the third quarter of 2022, increasing by $351 billion (2.2%) to $16.51 trillion.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Bonds Mortgage bond buyers are on strike. (wsj.com) After the sell-off, how attractive are muni bonds? (morningstar.com) Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury bond market has dried up. (ft.com) Strategy Rubin Miller, "Nothing about being a great investor requires imagination." (fortunesandfrictions.com) Ben Carlson, "You’re never going to get caught up in a Ponzi Scheme investing in a total stock market index fund.
Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA
In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Investors in the sector have been more reluctant to close deals as the cost of capital rises. But given a strong outlook for income growth, many acquisitions are still going through.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 13, 2022
Integration Issue or Fraud Issue? An ATX notice says " Due to the current market situation, the integration is taking longer than usual." Is this an integration issue or something else? Please consider the AAX announcement Forward Through Adversity. AAX scheduled a system upgrade that will help protect our users from the multiple malicious attacks that we’ve observed during this vulnerable time.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 794 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This is below the previous six months, and 36 thousand below the recent peak in April and May.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that AdvisorTech giant Envestnet has announced a partnership with New Zealand-based FNZ that will allow Envestnet to offer custodial services to advisors beginning in the second half of 2023. At a time of significant change in the RIA custodial space, epitomized by the ‘Schwabitrade’ integration (also in late 2023), Envestnet’s custodial offe
Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP
The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
The decrease in October moving intentions was the sixth straight and coincides with a rapid run-up in mortgage rates, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey data.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Bonds Bond investors are swapping mutual funds for ETFs. (advisorperspectives.com) Bonds vs. bond funds: people have strong feelings. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What lessons can we take away from the bond market this year? (monevator.com) FTX Why investors were so willing to overlook issues with FTX, and crypto in general. (wsj.com) Taking a tax loss due to FTX-related losses is harder than it looks.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
With inflation running hot, a potential recession looming, and both stock and bond markets seeing significant drops so far this year, there is no shortage of potential stressors for financial planning clients. And as crises arise and stress builds up, some clients may reach a tipping point where they seek out their advisor looking for answers to ensure their financial plan remains on track.
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You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Executives outline plans to roll out private wealth services, and move deeper into the enterprise market targeting trust banks and insurance companies.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Data from BLS, calculation and chart by Mish. Definitions The Civilian Noninstitutional Population is defined as persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. The participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October Existing-home sales retreated for the ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year declines. Total existing-home sales - completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
For many financial advisors, improving business development strategies can be a challenging task to address. With the myriad tools available to advisors that help them analyze the potential outcomes of their ideas and strategies, collecting the data to do so has become easier than ever. At the same time, though, over-analyzing strategies prior to implementing them can create a substantial gap between ideating a plan and actually putting it into motion.
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Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Unlike CDOs, which collapsed during the housing crisis, not a single AAA CLO has defaulted since the inception of the asset class 30 years ago
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October Existing Home Sales Key Points Existing-home sales faded for the ninth month in a row to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million. Sales fell 5.9% from September and 28.4% from one year ago.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.43 million SAAR in October Excerpt: On prices, the NAR reported: The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $379,100, a gain of 6.6% from October 2021 ($355,700), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 128 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Welcome back to the 307th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Stacey Hyde. Stacey is the President of Envision Financial Planning, an independent RIA based in Memphis, Tennessee, that oversees nearly $200 million in assets under management for 206 client households. What's unique about Stacey, though, is how, to gain more flexibility and independence for her firm, she and her partner decided to drop their FINRA licenses and launch their own RIA…
Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry
Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.
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