Thu.Feb 09, 2023

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The Hype Cycle, Expertise & Dunning Kruger

The Big Picture

I am always fascinated when seemingly random sources converge on the same concept. The current convergence involved some research I was doing centered on Dunning Kruger, Vanguard’s Tim Buckley, my partner Josh’s AI/ChatGPT post, and the general state of the market. It’s like a real-time version of “ The Blind Men and the Elephant ,” by John Godfrey Saxe.

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New CRE Tech Platform Aims to be a ‘Dating Service’ for 1031 Exchange Deals

Wealth Management

The nxtCRE platform aims to connect 1031 exchange investors, property sellers and lenders.

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Insiders

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 70% YoY; New Listings Down 11% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 4, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 70% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, but climbed at a slightly slower yearly pace than last week. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, this week by 11% fro

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Longevity Is the Biggest Threat to Successful Retirement

Wealth Management

Wealthier people are most likely to outlive mortality averages; advisors have a special obligation to focus on longevity risk with their clients.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Thursday links: a clear and present danger

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How a big, successful trade can distort your thinking for years to come. (youngmoney.co) Meb Faber on why more people don't invest in managed futures funds. (rcmalternatives.com) Companies Activist investors are lining up against Salesforce ($CRM). (wsj.com) Just how big is Apple's ($AAPL) services business? (finbold.com) Do we need to slow down the race to public AI?

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Danaher, AbbVie, Paramount & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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More Trending

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Kitces & Carl Ep 105: When A Prospect Doesn’t Meet Your Minimum: Navigating The Awkwardness Gracefully

Nerd's Eye View

For many financial advisors, setting asset minimums helps ensure that their firm can generate enough revenue to maintain business costs and compensate the advisor appropriately. While finding prospective clients who are a good fit for the firm can be challenging, what can be even more challenging is letting a prospect who doesn’t meet the firm’s asset minimum requirements know that they wouldn’t be a good fit for the firm.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: Verdence's Leo Kelly on Breaking Away Twice

Wealth Management

Leo Kelly, the founder and CEO of Verdence Capital Advisors, discusses life after Merrill and the choice to “breakaway” twice: first by joining Hightower and 5 years later by launching an RIA.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7.3% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Hovers Around 55% U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 4. Jan. 29 to Feb. 4, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 55.3% (-7.3%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $145.35 (+13.9%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $80.45 (+5.6%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.

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William Blair, InvestCloud Launch New SYSTM Platform For RIAs

Wealth Management

The first component of the new platform, a turnkey asset management platform supporting SMAs and UMAs, is now live.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE

Calculated Risk

During the early stages of the pandemic, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE hit an all-time low of 3.3% of PCE. Then energy expenditures increased to 2018 levels by the end of 2021. With the invasion of Ukraine, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE increased further in 2022. Here is an update through the December 2022 PCE report. This graph shows expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures.

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Seven Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (Feb. 10, 2023)

Wealth Management

A new report from the Federal Reserve shows tighter underwriting standards and weaker demand for commercial real estate loans. Multifamily Dive looks at five markets that have the most potential for multifamily distress. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 196,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending February 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 196,000 , an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 183,000. The 4-week moving average was 189,250, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 191,750. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

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Transitioning Your Broker Dealer is Easier Than You Think

Wealth Management

Wednesday, March 08, 2023 | 2:00 PM ET

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Longform links: an interesting place

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "A Hacker's Mind: How the Powerful Bend Society’s Rules, and How to Bend them Back" by Bruce Schneier. (wired.com) A Q&A with Eduardo J. Gómez author of "Junk Food Politics: How Beverage and Fast Food Industries Are Reshaping Emerging Economies." (npr.org) An excerpt from "The Wise Hours: A Journey Into the Wild and Secret World of Owls," a new book by Miriam Darlington.

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RIA Edge 100: The Mather Group

Wealth Management

The Mather Group has grown by more than 700% over the last five years, due to an active M&A pipeline, a mysterious lead generation strategy and a “truly professional” CEO.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

We are back from the ETF Exchange event and ready to rumble! (Or at least read). With no further adieu, the morning train WFH reads: • The AI Bubble of 2023 : The repetition of patterns is amazing. In every generation we see new bubbles, which form when a new innovation comes along and everyone gets excited about the future. The crowd gets swept away on a wave of madness, fueled by the recent gains they’ve seen for themselves (or for others) and all other considerations go out the window.

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NYC, San Jose Fuel End to Global Property Prices’ 13-Year Streak

Wealth Management

An index of office, industrial and retail properties fell 0.5% in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, breaking a 13-year streak of gains, MSCI Real Assets said in a report Thursday that analyzed 18 metro areas in North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Deconstructing 10, 20 & 30 Year Stock Market Returns

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I’ve just come across your blog post from 2016, “Deconstructing 30-Year Stock Market Returns.” Thank you for that! It was just about exactly what I was looking for. I wonder if you have updated your finding since then? Also, have you run the analysis for other time periods? 10-year and 20-year rolling averages would also be interesting.

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Vanguard’s One-of-a-Kind Fund Design Is About to Get Some Competition

Wealth Management

Mutual fund issuer PGIA has filed to replicate Vanguard's model on its ETFs.

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15 tips on working from home: find your balance

Nationwide Financial

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020 and many offices sent workers home, it was uncertain when we would go back into the office. Now, nearly three years from that first lockdown, many companies have implemented full-time and hybrid remote work policies. After adjusting to such a big shift, it can still feel hard to establish helpful working habits outside of the office.

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Quant Funds Shed Billions as Wall Street’s Hottest Trends Falter

Wealth Management

Smart-beta equity ETFs — which typically offer long-only versions of factors — posted outflows of about $4.8 billion in January, the largest monthly exit in four years.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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: Labcorp to spin off its clinical research organization under the name Fortrea

MarketWatch

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report incorrectly stated that Labcorp is spinning off a second business. It is not. The company only plans to spin off its clinical research organization. The report has been corrected. Labcorp LH said Thursday that it plans to spin off its clinical development business into a publicly traded clinical research organization, or CRO, in mid-2023.

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The 2022 Wealth Stack Study: A Comprehensive Guide to Driving Growth

Wealth Management

Wealth managers are entering 2023 with a keen focus on how they can use technology to better serve their current clients, find new clients, and develop and enhance connections - while also making their businesses as efficient and effective as possible.

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: Hilton stock rises toward 9-month high after profit more than doubles to beat expectations

MarketWatch

Shares of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT hiked up 2.4% toward a nine-month high in premarket trading Thursday, after the hotel operator reported fourth-quarter profit that more than doubled and beat expectations, as revenue per available room (RevPAR) exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the second straight quarter. Net income rose to $332 million, or $1.21 a share, from $147 million, or 52 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

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Serving Clients at All Stages of the Financial Planning Lifecycle Effectively and Efficiently

eMoney Advisor

Recent research 1 found that there is a large population of Americans interested in financial guidance. Of an estimated 104 million households seeking some level of financial advice, 88 million of those households want that advice from a financial professional. If you are looking for opportunities to grow your business, expanding your services to clients at all stages of the financial planning lifecycle creates new opportunities for you to reach those households in search of professional advice

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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3 Money-Saving Moving Tips!

MainStreet Financial Planning

Whether you’re moving across town or across states, moving can be stressful and expensive. Here are a few tips to help reduce stress, save on costs, and help make the transition as smooth as possible. Utilize online communities : There are a lot of expenses related to moving and moving supplies are one of the sneakiest culprits. You can easily spend hundreds of dollars just on specialty boxes – it seems they have created a specialty box for everything – mirrors, TVs, lamps, wardrobe boxes, and t

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WHY do auditors do that?

Norman Marks

One of the most powerful words for an auditor is one of the shortest: “why”. We should always ask an individual performing a control why they are doing it. Even if we know why, if the individual doesn’t know why that can affect their ability to perform the control properly, on a consistent basis.

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The Compound and Friends: Belski the Bull

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s episode is sponsored by Advisorshares: See here for more information on their Dorsey Wright ETFs On today’s show, we discuss: What recession? Some economists see chances of a growth rebound Bob Igers return Alphabet falls most in 3 months on Bard accuracy concerns Google stock tumbles after Bard ad shows inaccurate answer, AI race heats up Recommendations: Kramer v Kramer Taylor Sheridan.

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: Tesla stock rallies again, toward the longest win streak in seven months

MarketWatch

Shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA jumped 3.2% toward a three-month high in premarket trading, putting them on track an eighth straight gain. If the electric vehicle maker’s stock closes up Thursday, it would mark the longest winning streak since the eight-session stretch that ended July 22, 2022. The stock has soared 20.8% over the past seven sessions, and rocketed 58.3% amid a 14-session stretch in which it has gained 13 times.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.