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People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.
With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession.
medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation. economist.com) Economy This high yield bond indicator is signalling economic trouble ahead. bonddad.blogspot.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Adviser links: what bear markets demand.
Markets Small cap stocks stand out for their cheap valuations. compoundadvisors.com) Strategy Ben Carlson, "We’ve never seen a market environment like this where both stocks and bonds were crushed simultaneously." observer.com) Treasury market liquidity is a growing risk. ft.com) Credit cards are a legacy system.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.
Top clicks this week A big regime shift has happened in the economy and financial markets. ritholtz.com) The bond market bear market is pretty epic. wired.com) Bond bear markets are different than stock bear markets. awealthofcommonsense.com) Where the valuation of the 60/40 portfolio stands.
Markets The equity risk premium has fallen. spglobal.com) Finance Elon Musk's xAI and SpaceX are getting a valuation boost. money market mutual funds now have more than $7 trillion in assets. bloomberg.com) Prediction markets How big can prediction markets get? ft.com) Is private credit in a bubble? msn.com) U.S.
Markets Some of the most speculative sectors are perking up. blockworks.co) Strategy Rubin Miller, "Investing on hopes and hunches — making emotional decisions — is why so few portfolios earn the actual market return." fortunesandfrictions.com) The rise of passive investing hasn't broken the markets.
Markets Are the Magnificent Seven all that overvalued? morningstar.com) Has Nvidia ($NVDA) earned it valuation? wisdomtree.com) Global Signs of strength in the Mexican economy. apricitas.io) Canada's economy has some real advantages. bloomberg.com) Agriculture is driving Brazil's economy.
This week, Michael Batnick, Rob Arnott, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss lessons from the tech bubble, smart beta, big tech valuations, Tesla and Nvidia, how AI might impact markets and the economy, and much more! The post Big Market Delusions appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments.
Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count. wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. awealthofcommonsense.com) Market statistics can gloss over the big picture. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Markets The best time to prepare for a bear market is before it begins. billion valuation? marginalrevolution.com) Economy Q2 GDP Nowcasts are coming down. apolloacademy.com) Anger about the economy isn't really about the economy. sherwood.news) Companies Does Intel ($INTC) have a route forward?
Strategy Three reasons why the stock market declines. ritholtz.com) Semiconductors Trying to put a valuation on Nvidia ($NVDA). ft.com) Economy The Fed is going to have to cut rates to stick the soft landing. sherwood.news) What does the collapse in dollar store sales tell us about the economy? unemployment rate.
stock market of late. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Big tech stocks have their own valuation experience. nytimes.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are off their lows of a year ago. disciplinefunds.com) Have Fed rate hikes already worked its way through the economy? bloomberg.com) Salt Lake City is booming.
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
Markets By this measure, the stock market is at record-high concentration. axios.com) It's been awhile since we had a 2% stock market drop. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why you shouldn't care what other investors or the markets are doing. hbr.org) Startups SpaceX is doing a tender at a $210 billion valuation.
frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. politico.com) Why market economics doesn't necessarily work in health care. longreads.com) Populism is bad for a country's economy. marginalrevolution.com) Economy Shouldn't there be more layoffs by now?
Markets Why aren't stocks down more? bestinterest.blog) 60/40 portfolios Where the valuation of the 60/40 portfolio stands. vox.com) Economy The U.S. economy grew at a 4.9% theirrelevantinvestor.com) The stock-bond correlation does one thing: it changes. (fa-mag.com) morningstar.com) Why the 60/40 portfolio endures.
Markets What a 'breakaway momentum thrust' means for investors. ritholtz.com) India's stock market held up well in 2022. ft.com) Startups How unicorns are dealing with the decline in valuations. theinformation.com) The bloom is off the 'passion economy' rose? ft.com) Economy Existing home sales plunged in December.
Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. wsj.com) Startups are going to experience a "new normal" valuation-wise. avc.com) SpaceX is raising new capital at a $137 billion valuation. nytimes.com) The UK has 'deconverged' from the rest of the global economy.
Markets Today's constructive CPI report rang a bell for financial markets. finance.yahoo.com) The market for leveraged loans is open for business, especially refinancings. scheplick.com) NA beer Athletic Brewing is riding the wave of interest in NA beverages to a much higher valuation.
klementoninvesting.substack.com) Why are market cap weighted indices hard to beat for managers? axios.com) Venture capital Why more markdowns are coming to venture capital portfolio valuations. news.crunchbase.com) China China's economy is now experiencing deflation. vox.com) David Rubenstein on his Bitcoin regrets.
MarketsMarketvaluations aren't that helpful in the short term. bloomberg.com) Economy Consumer balance sheets are in good shape. tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. ft.com) Strategy Why you can ignore all the magazine cover commentary.
wsj.com) Investors have poured some $600 billion into money market funds YTD. barrons.com) Strategy The stock market is long term proposition. tomtunguz.com) Morgan Housel, "Companies should want the valuation they deserve, and not a penny more." nytimes.com) Lower natural gas prices are helping buoy the global economy.
As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. Some are known and already priced in, more are ambiguous, not fully reflected in market prices, and some are random surprises that by definition markets have not accounted for. to closer to 5%.
We discuss Chancellor’s history as an analyst interested in speculative bubbles, which led him to write a research paper on valuations and why the dotcom bubble looks a lot like other historical bubbles. That eventually was expanded into Devil Take the Hindmost published in 1999, a few quarters before the bubble popped.
Markets Six charts that defined markets in 2023. finance.yahoo.com) Hipgnosis is having a hard time coming up with song valuations. visualcapitalist.com) Economy The Fed is moderately tight. capitalspectator.com) The housing market remains bifurcated. axios.com) The Nasdaq 100 is just different. buy back shares?
Markets The stock market is laser focused on interest rates. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Do marketvaluations mean revert over time? thediff.co) Why there's never a shortage of pundits willing to make a big market call. ft.com) It's hard to find much that is going well for the Chinese economy.
The US economy has been on a tear versus every other G20 economy over the last 10 years and especially in the last few years. While high interest rates are slowing most other developed economies the US has stayed relatively robust. This is especially true in the pricing of the US stock market. That’s a coin flip.
Markets How worried should investors be about the debt ceiling drama? No, but the options market is changing. awealthofcommonsense.com) Rubin Miller, "The stock market is brashly indifferent to our opinions." nytimes.com) Funds How the launch of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY) changed financial markets.
This means valuations could actually move even higher and owning capital is going to become increasingly important for financial well-being. The whole economy is going to become increasingly decentralized. Entrepreneurs and consultants who can leverage AI and help other people navigate the economy will become more valuable.
Markets A 3% 30-year Treasury bond is no great deal. morningstar.com) Eight reasons why a 1929-style stock market crash is less likely today. dariusforoux.com) Strategy The good thing about bear markets is that they eventually end. awealthofcommonsense.com) Why you should ignore the steady stream of market 'sorcerers.'
Markets More signs that the U.S. stock market is overbought. tomtunguz.com) With valuations down, why aren't big tech companies buying more startups? reasonstobecheerful.world) Economy The Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE, moderated in June. capitalspectator.com) The Series I savings bond frenzy is over.
finance.yahoo.com) MarketsValuations don't matter in the short term. etf.com) How options income ETFs are marketed. morningstar.com) Economy Any single economic data point is filled with noise. Rates Mortgage rates are at levels not seen since 2001. axios.com) Global government bond yields are at 15-year highs.
Markets Wall Street strategists views on the market can differ in the short and long term. tker.co) You can't take historical stock market statistics to the bank. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself.
Market Drama Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA March 3rd, 2025 Watch Time: 4 min. Welcome to this week’s Market Drama! Stock Market Update: S&P 500: Down 1% for the week, up 1.2% Stocks ex-Emerging Markets): Up 8% YTD, outperforming U.S. Economies and markets fluctuate.
marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. spyglass.org) This is Apple's ($AAPL) brand promise.
Markets There's no sign that options trading is slowing down. axios.com) Finance Private equity managers are abusing their discretion when it comes to valuations. theverge.com) Economy Roger Lowenstein, "The only “good” Fed is that one promotes sustainable growth. wsj.com) The 10-year Treasury rates peaked back in the Fall.
He co-hosts the Behind the Markets podcast with Wharton finance Professor Jeremy Siegel and has helped update and revise Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies. Dividends come from earnings, and so those are sort of anchors to valuation.
Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy Q1 2024 GDP came in at 1.6% collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit.
(novelinvestor.com) The stock market is constantly providing us 'instant feedback' much to our detriment. nytimes.com) Companies Revisiting Tesla's ($TSLA) valuation, post-Twitter fiasco. thebasispoint.com) Housing The Fed's policies are hitting the economy primarily through the housing channel.
Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation. wired.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers show the rollover in housing prices.
We discussed lessons from the tech bubble, smart beta, big tech valuations, Tesla and Nvidia, how AI might impact markets and the economy, and much more! We had Rob Arnott on The Compound and Friends this week live at Future Proof! You can watch the new TCAF below or listen as a podcast.
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