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Cycle Watch | Cooler economic growth ahead

Nationwide Financial

Key takeaways: Economic activity was downshifted by mid-year, with elevated interest rates and inflation fatigue weighing on consumer and business spending behavior. The less frothy economic data provide more reason for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates in the second half of 2024. above its 10-year average of 17.9x.

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Sunday links: the appeal of simple stories

Abnormal Returns

riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. wsj.com) Retail Dollar stores are attracting a more upscale crowd these days. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (axios.com) Why everybody and their brother submitted a spot Bitcoin ETF application this week.

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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025

Dear Mr. Market

Historically, this bracket has been dominated by the tech sector, but after years of outsized gains, big tech valuations are stretched. This region is filled with heavy-hitters: tech giants, retail titans, and energy powerhouses. While UEC benefited from the rising nuclear narrative, SOFI thrived on the broader shift in banking.

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Thursday links: the cause of bubbles

Abnormal Returns

theatlantic.com) Finding a good retail CEO is tough these days. howardlindzon.com) Private assets Why private equity needs much better valuations. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? Everything else it built in-house has crashed and burned." pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!

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Market Drama

Zoe Financial

despite beating earnings expectations, showing high valuation pressure. Economic Update: Retail Sales: Weaker than expected in January. Economic Surprise Index: Declined over the last 4-5 weeks from high levels. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Nvidia: Fell 8.5%

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Wednesday links: something completely different

Abnormal Returns

institutionalinvestor.com) Startup valuations trended down in the second half of 2022. angellist.com) Economic uncertainty is not slow the pace of investment at Brookfield Infrastructure Partners ($BIP). institutionalinvestor.com) Economy Retail sales fell 1.1% in December 2022.

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Debt Funds or FDs: What Should You Choose After RBI’s Repo Rate Update?

Trade Brains

But beneath this surface-level move lies a far more intricate interplay of economics, sectoral impact, and capital allocation—especially when considering where to invest next: in fixed deposits (FDs) or debt mutual funds. The Real Economic Undercurrent A CRR cut is not just a technical move.

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