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People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.
With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.
wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments. What are some examples?
frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. politico.com) Why market economics doesn't necessarily work in health care. longreads.com) Populism is bad for a country's economy. marginalrevolution.com) Economy Shouldn't there be more layoffs by now?
(theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation. wsj.com) China is dramatically reducing the amount of economic statistics it publishes. economist.com) Economy This high yield bond indicator is signalling economic trouble ahead. thediff.co) Global How the U.S.
Key takeaways: Economic activity was downshifted by mid-year, with elevated interest rates and inflation fatigue weighing on consumer and business spending behavior. economy should post more modest growth in the second half of 2024 as interest rate and inflation headwinds build for consumers. above its 10-year average of 17.9x.
Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. bloomberg.com) Economy Consumer balance sheets are in good shape. bonddad.blogspot.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. theatlantic.com) Children are becoming a luxury good.
(scheplick.com) NA beer Athletic Brewing is riding the wave of interest in NA beverages to a much higher valuation. npr.org) Economy June CPI actually fell. bonddad.blogspot.com) We really don't have an analogy for the current economic environment. wsj.com) Should minors be allowed to buy non-alcoholic drinks?
wsj.com) Companies Just how important AI is for valuations today. nber.org) Economy The Federal Reserve has all the data in the world, and still gets things wrong. tker.co) The economic schedule for the coming week. (axios.com) A look at Gary Sernovitz's new novel "Counting House."
(axios.com) Venture capital Why more markdowns are coming to venture capital portfolio valuations. news.crunchbase.com) China China's economy is now experiencing deflation. economist.com) Economy A re-accelerating economy risks higher base inflation. hunterwalk.com) Do VC platform teams add value?
I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! The Fed gets it precisely right : Yay!
(techcrunch.com) SpaceX SpaceX is reportedly planning a tender offer for employee shares at a $175 billion valuation. axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) yahoo.com) Why SpaceX continues to win new launch business. take that into consideration."
Does that mean you are less enamored of Berkshire shares at current valuations? ' (barrons.com) How long will Ajit Jain stay in the lead of Berkshire's insurance business? semafor.com) Economy The quits rate keeps falling. and Europe are decoupling economically. ft.com) Why it's difficult for Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A)
marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. (amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips.
Economics Margaret Hoover talks with Felix Salmon author of "The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal." conversationswithtyler.com) Cardiff Garcia talks about the economics of innovation with Heidi Williams and Caleb Watney. Aswath Damodaran about stock valuations, market efficiency, and the rise of AI.
finance.yahoo.com) Markets Valuations don't matter in the short term. morningstar.com) Economy Any single economic data point is filled with noise. Rates Mortgage rates are at levels not seen since 2001. axios.com) Global government bond yields are at 15-year highs. theinformation.com) The city of San Francisco is struggling.
tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation. wired.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers show the rollover in housing prices. calculatedriskblog.com) Indicators show the economic cycle is maturing, but not yet in recession. (cnn.com) Big Tech is set to cut costs (and jobs) in 2023.
riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. axios.com) Economy Where various recession probability models stand. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Crypto Bitcoin had a good week. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Saturday linkfest.
The US economy has been on a tear versus every other G20 economy over the last 10 years and especially in the last few years. While high interest rates are slowing most other developed economies the US has stayed relatively robust. On the other hand, you could argue that high valuations simply reflect a price premium.
Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy. But we won’t know how big a losing trade it might be until early 2024, when we see the updated valuations.
despite beating earnings expectations, showing high valuation pressure. Economic Update: Retail Sales: Weaker than expected in January. Economic Surprise Index: Declined over the last 4-5 weeks from high levels. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written.
A couple of participants noted concerns about asset valuation pressures in other markets. A few of these participants noted signs that the deterioration of conditions in this sector of the CRE market might be lessening. emphasis added
(howardlindzon.com) Private assets Why private equity needs much better valuations. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. axios.com) Funds Tax efficiency is the secret sauce of ETFs. pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook.
In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today’s market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification.
Historically, this bracket has been dominated by the tech sector, but after years of outsized gains, big tech valuations are stretched. However, shifting economic conditions, a potential rate-cut cycle, and valuation opportunities have created a renewed focus on small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in financials and energy.
institutionalinvestor.com) Startup valuations trended down in the second half of 2022. angellist.com) Economic uncertainty is not slow the pace of investment at Brookfield Infrastructure Partners ($BIP). institutionalinvestor.com) Economy Retail sales fell 1.1% in December 2022.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year : Cambell Harvey’s work showed link between curve inversion and growth Strong labor demand, risk avoidance support US economy now. Bloomberg ). The index is now up 8.9% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03
The year began with a reversal in investors’ mood, from widespread pessimism about a pending recession at the end of 2022 to optimism for a soft landing for the economy, predicated on better-than-expected economic data. Rates might rise and stay higher for longer, challenging the current lofty valuations for equities.
Several global and domestic factors have contributed to this downturn, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, market valuations, and economic concerns. China’s Economic Stimulus: A Cause for Concern China’s efforts to stimulate its slowing economy have also impacted global markets, including India.
Strategy Why stock market valuations are logically higher today than they were in the past. npr.org) Economy Jobless claims are not breaking out, yet. marketwatch.com) What's driving economic pessimism? ofdollarsanddata.com) Why compounding is still unheralded. wsj.com) The U.S. lags, badly, in real-time funds transfer.
Additionally, foreign investors are shifting funds from India to China, attracted by lower valuations. These valuations reflect different economic conditions and investor sentiments in each country. On the other hand, low P/E ratios might signal undervaluation or economic challenges.
My greatest contribution to the field of economics is my General Theory of Assflation. My argument for why stocks were going up was because there was real fundamental improvement in the economy. This chart is wonderful as it breaks down the assets by valuation in a more granular manner. But are they? Whoa, 1 year?
Despite rosy forecasts, the US economy faces powerful headwinds that call into question its ability to serve as the world’s main growth driver. These challenges are compounded by domestic and geopolitical uncertainties that have not been reflected in market valuations and economic assessments.
wsj.com) How a seed investor approaches valuation discussions. nytimes.com) Economy How will the fertility crisis affect GDP growth? axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (om.co) Twitter really hates paying its bills. platformer.news) VC You can expect to see more startups closing up shop as funding dries.
On today's Animal Spirits, we discuss: Ben Hunt on unrealistic expectations Drew Dickson weighs in on the passive bubble WeWork might slash their valuation prior to the IPO Galloway on Uber and other things An introduction to credit card points The stock market actually might be the economy Americans own more stock than ever Academics on the passive (..)
Will the economy avoid a recession? Will the Federal Reserve continue to lower interest rates, supporting valuations? PMI and ISM data will offer an overall snapshot of the economys performance. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written.
Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the domestic economy grew at an inflation-adjusted pace of 2.4% The most economically sensitive industries saw the strongest stock price gains. The low interest rates that justified higher stock valuations are not so low anymore. A report from the U.S. during the second quarter of 2023.
It all added up to the third most volatile market in 25 years. And while the economy isn’t going to just turn on a dime and recover overnight, there is hope for a better second half of the year. Valuations Could Move to a More Normal Range . Virus variants: Will virus mutations undo the economic recovery? High inflation.
Market Valuations : Multiples are no longer considered cheap. Economic Updates: Payroll data: 227k new jobs added, above 220k expected. If earnings continue to grow steadily, inflation decelerates, and economic growth is maintained, the market could rally further with no immediate signs of a recession.
We believe the odds of a recession remain low, with continued income growth, a recovery in rate-sensitive cyclical areas of the economy, and untapped potential for productivity gains helping to support the expansion. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, and the economy rarely saw eye to eye. We continue to favor the U.S.,
This either sets the stage for upward revisions as pessimism eases or suggests the S&P 500 has gotten ahead of itself, with a valuation of 18x forward earnings. Pessimists argue about still elevated inflation, tightening financial conditions, the risk to earnings estimates, and rising valuations. Consumer spending was up 0.2%
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