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Turn Off TV – Emperor Media Has No Clothes!

Investing Caffeine

Issues are More Gray Than Black or White Journalists – most of whom have little investing experience – like to authoritatively paint economic issues in black-or-white terms. To claim the media offers a balanced view of both the positives and negatives of complicated financial topics would be disingenuous.

Media 52
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Past Elections Status Quo Means No Need for Woe

Investing Caffeine

Source : Yardeni Research (Yardeni.com) More recently, over the last 26 years, the stock market has been up significantly under each president, regardless of political party. growth rate for Q3 Resilient Jobs Market: The just-reported unemployment rate of 4.1% today is representative of a strong but slowing job market.

Economy 52
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2024 Forecasting Follies

The Better Letter

That’s because, at best , complex systems – from the weather to the markets – allow only for probabilistic forecasts with very significant margins for error and often seemingly outlandish and hugely divergent potential outcomes. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economic Strategist blew her call , too.

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Why Macro Forecasting Is So Hard Impossible

The Big Picture

Let us stop for a moment to consider all that is going on with the new administration’s new economic trade policies at ~100 days. That is before we get to other issues with economic long-term ramifications.1 There is a new tariff policy that is (by design) threatening the pre-existing global trade order.

Economy 268
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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

Economics 322
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September 2016 Insights on Markets and Investments

Brown Advisory

September 2016 Insights on Markets and Investments achen Mon, 09/12/2016 - 01:00 In this issue: Investors Facing Rising Risks Need Solid Defense, Savvy Offense Increasing political and economic risk during the past year has widened the range of possible positive and negative scenarios for financial markets.

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September 2016 Insights on Markets and Investments

Brown Advisory

September 2016 Insights on Markets and Investments. Mon, 09/12/2016 - 01:00. In this issue: Investors Facing Rising Risks Need Solid Defense, Savvy Offense Increasing political and economic risk during the past year has widened the range of possible positive and negative scenarios for financial markets.