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Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will the economy grow in 2025?

Economy 173
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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345
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#5 – “The US is a Minority of Global GDP”

Meb Faber Research

At around 25% of the total, or approximately $30 trillion, the US is the world’s dominant economy. Turns out India and China are pretty big economies too, and emerging markets hold about 80% of world population. But if you were to guess just how much of the total the US represents, likely you’d be wrong.

Economy 52
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Market Commentary: Better Times May Be Ahead Despite the Market’s Reaction to the Last Fed Meeting of the Year

Carson Wealth

It upped its view of economic growth and said things looked pretty good on the economic front. Lastly, the full year was negative in 1994 and 2015 after no Santa. In short, the economy and markets are looking at elevated interest rates over the next two years. These long-term interest rates matter a lot for the economy.

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Market Commentary: Stocks Resilient Despite DeepSeek, Tariff Talk

Carson Wealth

The difference is that weve gotten a string of strong economic data since then, resulting in fading recession fears (and fewer rate cuts being priced in as a result). He admitted that they do need to see what the actual policy will be before estimating the economic impact, let alone determining the appropriate policy.

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How Will the One, Big, Beautiful Tax Bill Impact Markets?

Carson Wealth

Rising Deficits Have Boosted Profits in the Past Over the long run, market returns are mostly driven by profit growth, which depends on the economy. It’s the net result of saving and consumption by four sectors of the economy: households, businesses, governments, and the rest of the world via trade. increases profits.

Taxes 75
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Three Things – Weekend Reading

Discipline Funds

But I find it very compelling from the perspective of any 3rd world economy, especially those with unstable authoritarian economies. One of my dominant themes over the last few years was the theory that the post-Covid economy would eventually mean revert right back to the pre-Covid economy. RGDP came in at 2.3%