Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales 130

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 130

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). Alas, utterly nothing.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it?

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

Full transcript below. ~~~ Previously : Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010) Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (April 12, 2011) ~~~ Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. You’re looking at what just took place.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Analysis: Acceleration in consumer inflation increases the odds of further Fed action Robust spending and income for January was in line with other strong economic data for the month, showing renewed economic vigor despite the Fed’s efforts to cool inflationary conditions. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) climbed by 1.8

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% after adjusting for inflation, matching the average annual pace between 2010 and 2019.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually measures this, via a metric called “part-time employment for economic reasons.”

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. for almost a year now.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 97

Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

economy has accelerated over the past year, defying calls of recession amid the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. We just received a tremendous amount of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2). In sum: Not only is there no recession, but the economy does not even appear to be headed for a “landing” at this point.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 98

Carson Wealth

MAY 13, 2024

Economic data remains supportive, according to the Carson Leading Economic Indicator, which is pointing to above-trend growth. While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Admittedly, it can be hard to get a full picture of the economy as the data rolls in week after week. and 28 other countries.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

Investing Caffeine

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Economy Remains Healthy : As mentioned earlier, the constant barrage of recession calls over the last two years has been blatantly wrong. Source: Trading Economics Employment Strength Continues : The labor picture remains strong, as well. growth rate (see chart below).

Economy 91

Economy CFP Economics Investing 91

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The economy continues to surprise to the upside, as we will discuss more below. With earnings hitting new highs and the economy continuing to expand, it’s no wonder stocks have hit 42 new all-time highs in 2024. That’s because in the US, a recession is officially “dated” by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economics 96

Discipline Funds

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economies or large components of the economy. It takes years and decades for economies to grow, contract, grow and grow. I spent most of the 2010’s writing articles debunking macroeconomic myths. Let me explain.

Investing 122

Investing Investments Taxes Portfolio 122

Validea

MAY 5, 2023

And much like the investors and analysts who didn’t heed his warnings in 2008 or in the years since regarding the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 and loose monetary policy, he doesn’t expect many to listen to him now. The post Paul Singer, Who Predicted The Economic Crises, On What’s Next appeared first on Validea's Guru Investor Blog.

Economics 52

Economics Government Banking Economy 52

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

Existing home sales fall again Existing home sales fell for an eleventh straight month in December to the slowest pace since 2010. economy should expand 3.2 The post Consumer activity slows to close 2022: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook appeared first on Nationwide Financial. What we’re watching this week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Engineering 52

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. annual pace, which is faster than the 2010-2019 pace of 1.2%.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Carson Wealth

APRIL 29, 2024

The Headline GDP Number Masks a Strong Economy The economy grew 1.6% Excluding these categories provides a much clearer picture of actual spending and production in the economy, i.e., final demand after adjusting for inflation. in the first quarter, well above the 2010-2019 average pace of 2.4%. Think of it like core GDP.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. History says to expect it.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. But as the week progressed things calmed down and better economic data showed fears of a recession were once again overblown. 2010 had a European banking crisis. What a Week What a week! 1998 saw the Russian debt default.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Economy 95

Fortune Financial

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

per annum with growth every single year regardless of economic circumstances. Economically speaking, lavish pet expenditures were once viewed as a luxury, but as incomes have grown, consumers have been more willing to pay up for everything from premium dog foods to extensive life-extending therapies for their pets. members to ~2.5

Food 95

Food Budgeting Financial Advisor Economics 95

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Discipline Funds

JULY 18, 2023

This 2010 NBER paper found that the yield curve i s not as predictive as you might think if you only looked at US data. But the curve typically inverts when there’s a problem in the economy and the Fed views current inflation as being too high. After all, it has a nearly flawless track record predicting recessions in the USA.

Economy 98

Economy Marketing Marketing Banking 98

Carson Wealth

MARCH 25, 2024

A Dovish Fed Signals Rate Cuts Amid a Strong Economy — That’s Bullish The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its March meeting, but the headline takeaway was that the median official continues to project three interest rate cuts in 2024, each worth 0.25%. Fed officials upgraded their economic growth projections for 2024 from 1.4%

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 97

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 18, 2023

In their updated “ Summary of Economic Projections ,” they revised their estimates of core inflation for 2023 down from 3.7% Markets were off to the races after the Fed released its statement and economic projections. Lower interest rates can have significant positive effects on the economy, including on mortgage rates.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 96

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 26, 2024

As we are now a decade and a half removed from that economic meltdown, I feel that a bit of reflection is in order. Did that period of time, albeit historic in many ways, usher in an actual “new normal” or was it simply an atypical period within an otherwise normal 50-year economic period.

Marketing 74

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Economics 74

The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 10, 2016

Today I want to revisit what was potentially the most disruptive distraction to one's financial well-being since that time; the double-dip recession scares that first arrived in 2010, and then revisited investors in 2011. Double-Dip first came to the scene in 2010 when the S&P 500 fell 17%. But at this point that's a detail.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 52

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Let’s look back in time and see how Nifty got to where it is today, from when it started in 1996 to reach 20,000 points, and how it dealt with different economic challenges: 1996 – Birth of Nifty50 The Nifty 50 index was launched on April 22, 1996, at 1,107 points, with a base value of 1,000 counted from November 3, 1995.

Numbers 59

Numbers Economy Economics Government 59

Truemind Capital

JANUARY 24, 2024

Returns on investments (equity/debt/gold) are influenced by various factors – economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and prices at which you invest. Nominal GDP growth (real economic growth + inflation) is highly correlated with the aggregate revenue & profitability growth of all the businesses in India over the long term.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Economy Economics 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. BITTERLY MICHELL: … obviously, the United States, the global economy. It was at Bank One, at the time. Like lives are completely changed across …. RITHOLTZ: Right. risk matters.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

The Big Picture

AUGUST 16, 2022

TROPIN: Yeah, I think when we got that — RITHOLTZ: But the economy really seems to be slowing. You know, it would not surprise me as earnings slow down and the economy slows down. TROPIN: I think the slowdown in the economy is somewhat priced in, but I think we could see lower prices from here. RITHOLTZ: Right.

Management 305

Management Assets Risk Management Marketing 305

Investing Caffeine

MAY 2, 2022

Although I have noted some of the key headwinds the economy faces above, it is worth noting that current corporate profits remain at/near all-time record highs (see chart below) and the 3.6% As Albert Einstein stated, “In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”.

Electronics 59

Electronics Economy CFP Government 59

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 28, 2023

Credit markets continue to show very few signs of economic stress. Recent economic data from China show that the world’s second largest economy is in trouble. Much of China’s economic growth is driven by real estate investment, which has pulled back significantly. economy is likely to be minimal. In the U.S.,

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52