Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. For a discussion of recessions, see NBER's What is a recession? Click on graph for larger image.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. this gives 2.4%

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2010 64.3% -0.3 2010 64.3% -0.3 2010 64.3% -0.3 in December, down 0.4

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 16, 2022

History suggests that the Fed’s recognition of key market and economic indicators also is on an excessive lag. Consider : In the 2010s, the Fed remained on emergency footing from 2008, when they took rates to 0 (zero) until December 2015 (this created lots of distortions). The result is Fed is always late to the party.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 6, 2022

Australian psychologists Steve Loughnan, Nick Haslam, and Brock Bastian coined the term in 2010, defining it as the “psychological conflict between people’s dietary preference for meat and their moral response to animal suffering.”

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Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. That is a clear employment recession.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). Our planet has done this about 4.54

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. Click on graph for larger image. I ignored that pandemic distortion.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

Full transcript below. ~~~ Previously : Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010) Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (April 12, 2011) ~~~ Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. You’re looking at what just took place.

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Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Analysis: Acceleration in consumer inflation increases the odds of further Fed action Robust spending and income for January was in line with other strong economic data for the month, showing renewed economic vigor despite the Fed’s efforts to cool inflationary conditions. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) climbed by 1.8

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2010 64.3% -0.3 2010 64.3% -0.3 2010 64.3% -0.3 in November 2022.

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Validea

JUNE 2, 2025

Each of these asset classes tends to perform well in different economic regimes, making the All Weather strategy a compelling option for long-term investors who prioritize consistency and downside protection. All Weather Portfolio: Asset Class Behavior Across Economic Regimes Asset Class Performs Well In Why It’s Included U.S.

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Trade Brains

JUNE 18, 2025

RattanIndia Enterprises Limited RattanIndia Enterprises Limited was established on November 9, 2010, and focuses on new-age businesses using advanced technology. It trades, exports, and imports minerals, precious metals, gems, jewelry, coal, and agro products, supporting India’s foreign trade and economic growth.

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Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Unusual Economic Indicators : You might have heard about indicators like the Big Mac Index (if you haven’t, you can read our previous article). Today, we’ll introduce you to some unusual economic indicators that might predict the economic conditions. Most Unusual Economic Indicators 1. What is it? What is the proof?

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Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability.

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Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

Existing home sales fall again Existing home sales fell for an eleventh straight month in December to the slowest pace since 2010. The post Consumer activity slows to close 2022: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook appeared first on Nationwide Financial. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg. economy should expand 3.2

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Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) of 1981 allowed for the IRA to become universally available as a savings incentive to all workers under age 70 1/2. An additional provision in the EGTRRA was the option, available beginning in 2010, for Traditional IRA owners to convert funds to a Roth IRA, regardless of income level.

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Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

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Advisor Perspectives

AUGUST 28, 2023

At its annual summit in Johannesburg this week, the bloc of five emerging countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—announced plans to expand for the first time since 2010.

Economics 52

Economics Planning 52

Validea

MAY 5, 2023

And much like the investors and analysts who didn’t heed his warnings in 2008 or in the years since regarding the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 and loose monetary policy, he doesn’t expect many to listen to him now. The post Paul Singer, Who Predicted The Economic Crises, On What’s Next appeared first on Validea's Guru Investor Blog.

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Fortune Financial

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

per annum with growth every single year regardless of economic circumstances. Economically speaking, lavish pet expenditures were once viewed as a luxury, but as incomes have grown, consumers have been more willing to pay up for everything from premium dog foods to extensive life-extending therapies for their pets.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

From the fund page : the goal is seeking stable returns across a variety of economic and financial market conditions, consistent with the preservation of capital. It has been challenging as we've talked about in other posts recently but I believe the 2010's were even worse. Offering diversified exposure to U.S. Check out the following.

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Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. That’s well above the 2010-2019 average of 2.4% And that is what is happening now.

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Advisor Perspectives

AUGUST 20, 2023

While some economists may argue that secular stagnation is to blame for China’s economic slowdown, concerns about sustained slower growth are overblown. If the country falls into a recession, it would constitute the next turn of the debt supercycle that began in the US in 2008 and moved to Europe in 2010.

Economics 52

Economics 52

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. This was well above expectations of a 2.0%

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Carson Wealth

MAY 13, 2024

Economic data remains supportive, according to the Carson Leading Economic Indicator, which is pointing to above-trend growth. This is why we have our own Carson Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the U.S. The banking system has held up, and economic growth has run ahead of the pre-pandemic 2010-2019 trend.

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Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

We just received a tremendous amount of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2). All This Points to Strong Economic Growth The Atlanta Fed puts out a “nowcast” of quarterly real GDP growth that is updated with major economic data releases. It’s a Bird. It’s a Plane! It’s … the U.S. over the past year.

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Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 26, 2024

As we are now a decade and a half removed from that economic meltdown, I feel that a bit of reflection is in order. Did that period of time, albeit historic in many ways, usher in an actual “new normal” or was it simply an atypical period within an otherwise normal 50-year economic period.

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The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 10, 2016

Today I want to revisit what was potentially the most disruptive distraction to one's financial well-being since that time; the double-dip recession scares that first arrived in 2010, and then revisited investors in 2011. Double-Dip first came to the scene in 2010 when the S&P 500 fell 17%. But at this point that's a detail.

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Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The Bearish Narratives Look Even Worse Now We just got a slew of economic data revisions from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and our first response was, Wow! There’s a reason why the S&P 500 has risen over 90% over this same period, and that was because economic activity drove profit growth. Guess What?

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Validea

MARCH 13, 2025

Low Debt Levels (Long-Term Debt Net Current Assets) Limiting debt helps safeguard a companys financial health, especially during economic downturns. The Ben Graham Value Model has delivered some impressive years, with top performances in 2013 ( +68.5% ), 2021 ( +40.8% ), and 2010 ( +36.9% ).

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Investing Caffeine

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Source: Trading Economics Employment Strength Continues : The labor picture remains strong, as well. As you can see, employment was on a tear pre-COVID, adding about 20 million jobs from 2010 to 2020. In fact, the most recent GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figure for the 3 rd quarter came out at a blistering +5.2%

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Discipline Funds

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

When we apply this to finance and investing the study of aggregates is especially useful because you can properly understand what “the market” is and more importantly, you can better understand the economic effects of trading the aggregate market. I spent most of the 2010’s writing articles debunking macroeconomic myths.

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Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. But as the week progressed things calmed down and better economic data showed fears of a recession were once again overblown. 2010 had a European banking crisis. What a Week What a week! 1998 saw the Russian debt default.

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Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Let’s look back in time and see how Nifty got to where it is today, from when it started in 1996 to reach 20,000 points, and how it dealt with different economic challenges: 1996 – Birth of Nifty50 The Nifty 50 index was launched on April 22, 1996, at 1,107 points, with a base value of 1,000 counted from November 3, 1995.

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Numbers Economy Economics Government 59

Discipline Funds

JULY 18, 2023

This 2010 NBER paper found that the yield curve i s not as predictive as you might think if you only looked at US data. And one thing we know from inverted yield curves is that they tend to occur around periods of rising economic and market risk. After all, it has a nearly flawless track record predicting recessions in the USA.

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