Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. 2009 -2.6% Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investments 278

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investments 241

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might place some checks on the executive branch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales 165

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 165

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. 2009 -2.6% 2009 -2.6%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Government Investments 111

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2025

But this is a fun conversation with Pete Dominick discussing the economy, the market and of course, the new book! He is the author of the Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Wiley, 2009). Yeah, yeah, more of me, I know.

Investments 130

Investments Investing Startup Wealth Management 130

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. Monetary stimulus (ZIRP/QE) from 2009-2021. Alas, utterly nothing. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22. The next ~12 years saw gains of 608.5%

Economy 329

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 329

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”

Banking 299

Banking Economy Economics 299

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Sales 208

Sales Numbers Economy 208

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. This is now happening , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. etf.com) Economy The Fed has hiked 11 of the last 13 meetings. semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open?

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 293

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

This suggests vehicle sales might increase in 2023 even with higher rates and a soft economy. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA.

Sales 237

Sales Economy 237

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fifth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in March; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.3 percent recorded in March. percent , 1.4 percent , up 3.3

Manufacturing 251

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 251

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

A Wealth of Common Sense

AUGUST 13, 2024

economy has been in a recession for just two months! That’s roughly 1% of the time, meaning that since July 2009, the United States has avoided a recession 99% of the time. Do you know how long we’ve been in a recession for since the end of the Great Financial Crisis? Two months. In 15 years, the U.S.

Economy 132

Economy 132

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. I noted near the lows in June that I “ The contrarian in me is just starting to get that itch to buy here, but it’s not a full-throated “Gotta gotta gotta get some” like 2020 or 2009.” Revenues , too).

Economics 265

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 265

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

In the last two months, the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since April 2009, when it registered 45.5 The Prices Index was down 6.1 percentage points in March, to 59.5 percent.

Economy 253

Economy Management Economics 253

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in 2023, its best performance since 2009. Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. Same for the Nasdaq 100: It gained 14.3% in Q4, and a whopping 53.8% over 2022-23. Data via Yardeni Research ).

Economy 332

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 332

Discipline Funds

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

During periods where Democrats were in total control the economy performed better, but the markets performed worse. And during periods of total Republican control the economy did worse and the markets performed better. The point here is that the markets and the economy don’t really care about politics.

Economy 59

Economy Government Economics Engineering 59

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Once we reach that point, then the second step of our inflation fighting process, as I see it, will be pausing to let the tightening we have already done work its way through the economy. I have us pausing at 5.4 And Wall Street economists are expecting three or more rate hikes this year.

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM ® Report On Business ® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) “The The rate of contraction was the fastest since August and among the sharpest on record (since October 2009).

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in April; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. percent , 3.1 percent , up 1.2

Manufacturing 167

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 167

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 75

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 75

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

Other years that saw big returns after down days were 2003, 2008, 2009, 2020, and of course now. The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. Since 1980, only 2020 would be better than 2025 so far. But pop the hood and there’s cause for concern.

Economics 64

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 64

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a fourth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in February; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.7 percent recorded in February. percent is 0.4

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a third month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in January; readings from the last three months are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in January.

Manufacturing 154

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 154

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 28, 2023

However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Back in the autumn of 2001, he noticed that when the US economy was struggling due to the recession, lipstick sales were actually going up instead of down. Keep reading to find out what they are!

Economy 64

Economy Economics Sales Government 64

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

October 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in October, with the overall economy achieving a 29th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. This reading, the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 133

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2024

My back from vacay morning reads: • Pandemic Start-Ups Are Thriving, and Helping to Fuel the Economy : A record surge in new businesses has helped drive job growth, and could have longer-term benefits. ( In 2009, the market cap of the US stock market was 30% of the global stock market cap. Prior to launching Cutter, he focused on U.S.

Electronics 148

Electronics Recruitment License Healthcare 148

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

Marketing 78

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 78

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2025

Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. Alright, so, so you go from public finance, how did you evolve towards co-head of innovation economy? So Barry Ritholtz : Let’s talk about your dual role, your, your co-head of innovation economy and your head of specialized industries.

Banking 130

Banking Economy Startup Marketing 130

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 1, 2023

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a second month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. percent recorded in December; the last two readings are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent , 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4 percent is 0.5 percent, 2.1

Manufacturing 133

Manufacturing Economy Management 133

Calculated Risk

JUNE 5, 2023

percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. percent and the index’s lowest reading since May 2009 (40 percent). In the last six months, the average reading of 48.0 percent (with a low of 45.8 percentage points in May, to 56.2 percent, an 8.8-percentage

Economy 100

Economy Management Economics 100

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. Even more impressive is the past four times this happened (1997, 2003, 2009, and 2020) all saw at least double-digit returns. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 3, 2023

percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

Economy 100

Economy Economics Management 100