The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investing 349

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

Owners and developers tend to put projects into planning until well after economic conditions weaken. During the Great Recession, for example, the DMI did not substantially decline until 2009. Martin notes, commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 276

Healthcare Economics Planning Education 276

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” 40%) probability of happening.

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Monetary stimulus (ZIRP/QE) from 2009-2021. It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76 Our planet has done this about 4.54 billion times.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2025

He is the author of the Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Wiley, 2009). Barry has named one of the 15 Most Important Economic Journalists in the United States, and has been called one of The 25 Most Dangerous People in Financial Media.

Investing 130

Investing Investments Startup Wealth Management 130

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 1, 2022

” The blog, which he launched in 2009, spawned a bestselling book, now available in 17 languages, as well as a podcast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here ; all of our prior discussions of psychology and behavioral economics can be found here.

Economics 303

Economics Marketing Marketing 303

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2009 -2.6%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 18, 2023

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April dropped to 107.5 This is the 13th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009, and the lowest reading since September 2020. from March's revised figure of 108.2. Today's reading represented a 0.6% month-over-month decline, consistent with the forecast.

Economics 115

Economics 115

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. Who is to Blame, 1-25 (June 29, 2009). _. 2000s : Kept rates too low for too long following 9/11 and dotcom implosion – FOMC Rate did not get over 1% until 2004. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022.

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 22, 2023

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May dropped to 106.7 and the 14th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009. from April's figure of 107.5. This is the index's lowest reading since July 2020. Today's reading represented a 0.7% month-over-month decline, slightly higher than the forecast.

Economics 111

Economics 111

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 204

Sales Economics 204

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

I hope to address this in greater detail in the coming weeks… Previously : How Overrated is Sentiment in Economics? November 22, 2009). Regardless, this is an area of research ripe for further exploration. Black Friday #Fails. Source : Inflation Expectations Continue Decline at the Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Horizons.

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 200

Sales Economics 200

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. For a discussion of recessions, see NBER's What is a recession? Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 in December, down 0.4

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

April 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the sixth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 50.2%, up from 46.9% percent , up 3.3

Manufacturing 251

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 251

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. Economic Innovation Group ). • Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time. Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S.

Communication 298

Communication Startup Management Economics 298

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

Consider the Yardeni chart (top) showing earning surprises: Despite a variety of economic and geopolitical negatives, earnings have been holding up relatively well. It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. 2009 -2.6%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2023: How much will job growth slow in 2023? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. That is a clear employment recession.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

March 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.2 In the last two months, the index has reflected the fastest supplier delivery performance since April 2009, when it registered 45.5 percent, 1.8

Management 253

Management Economy Economics 253

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. Click on graph for larger image. I ignored that pandemic distortion.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Irrelevant Investor

OCTOBER 25, 2022

Today we learned that home prices had their largest drop since 2009. In fact, a lot of the economic data will likely worsen. He said: “The US economic downturn gathere. This is just a small preview of what I believe we’ll see in the coming months as the market adjusts to 7% mortgages.

Economics 130

Economics Marketing Marketing 130

Advisor Perspectives

JULY 20, 2023

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June dropped to 106.1 This is the index's lowest reading since July 2020 and the 15th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009. from May's figure of 106.9. Today's reading represented a 0.7% month-over-month decline, slightly worse than the forecast.

Economics 75

Economics 75

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2023

in financial economics from London Business School. Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Rich Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA), which was founded in 2009 and is running $14.6B She earned her Ph.D. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Assets 182

Assets Management Media Investing 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. In summary, we find evidence for a shorter lag in the peak response of inflation to a policy shock in the post-2009 period even after we adjust the shock definition to incorporate forward guidance and balance sheet policy.

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 2009 64.6% -1.2 in November 2022.

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

May 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the seventh consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 51.4%, up from 50.2% percent , up 1.2

Manufacturing 167

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 167

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

March 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March for the fifth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 46.9%, down from 49.1% percent is 0.4

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 162

Discipline Funds

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

No one has enough control to drive the economic car in a single direction. And while politicians will often take credit for certain outcomes the reality is that the US economic vehicle is being driven by hardworking people who wake up every day and strive to be a little bit better.

Economy 59

Economy Government Economics Engineering 59

Validea

JUNE 2, 2025

Each of these asset classes tends to perform well in different economic regimes, making the All Weather strategy a compelling option for long-term investors who prioritize consistency and downside protection. All Weather Portfolio: Asset Class Behavior Across Economic Regimes Asset Class Performs Well In Why It’s Included U.S.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Investing Investments Economics 52

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

February 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fourth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 49.1%, down from 50.6%

Manufacturing 154

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 154

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 The rate of contraction was the fastest since August and among the sharpest on record (since October 2009). percent, 2.4

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in 2023, its best performance since 2009. 550bps increases in the Federal Funds rate from March 2022 through July 2023 – and its long and variable lags – continues to exert a drag on the economy, which could lead to further economic contraction. Same for the Nasdaq 100: It gained 14.3% in Q4, and a whopping 53.8% over 2022-23.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331