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joincolossus.com) Finance Christine Benz and Dan Lefkovitz talks markets with Jeremy Grantham of GMO. podcasts.apple.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Vincent Aita, Founder and CIO of Cutter Capital Management. (joincolossus.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Joe Lonsdale of 8VC.
Portfoliomanagement was a lot less evidence-based than it is today. As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. Essentially when we model great investors and look at the underlying factors of their portfolio, they do perform extraordinarily well over time.
I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. I worked in sort of a quasi portfoliomanagement role for like a single client account type business. So we really hit all the major markets and all the major geographies. I have no family history.
She has a really fascinating background, very eclectic, a combination of math and law. You, you get a, a BS in Mathematics and a JD from Boston University Math and Law. It is something, math has always come easy to me since a child. I didn’t get an advanced degree in math. Not the usual combination. What happened?
All of their portfoliomanagers not only are substantial investors in each of their funds, but they do a disclosure year that shows each manager by name and how much money they have invested in their own fund. Maybe there’s a substantial marketing efficiency there. Does that mean the float isn’t giant?
I did in 2013 the largest banking transaction that the market had seen since the financial crisis, it was a $2.4 First of all, I think the amount of investors that participate in the financial markets is much smaller than it is in the U.S. I had the chance to be part of some very interesting transactions in the banking space.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. Now I do fundamental side research portfoliomanagement, which I just, 00:08:20 [Speaker Changed] So, so you joined GMO, there’s 60 people, 30 years.
The topics covered are personal finance math, retirement problems, introduction to mutual funds, the concept of fund & NAV, equity schemes, debt funds, investing in bonds, index funds, rolling returns, Exchange-traded funds(ETF) and basics of macroeconomics. You can enroll in the course here. You can enroll in the course here.
BARRY RITHOLTZ; HOST; MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest, Antti Ilmanen is AQR’s Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group. He is the author of a new book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When the Markets Offer the Least.” ILMANEN: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Right.
This year, VBINX is down 18% while NTSX is down almost 24%, the math appears to check out. For me, this is all a theoretical exercise but there's a wide contingent of very smart portfoliomanagers who seem to be all in on this. Does it do what it's supposed to? According to this white paper from ReSolve and Newfound, it does.
Even with 75% accuracy we only move from an investable universe where 30% of constituents outperform to now selecting the portfolio from a pool with a 56% win rate. We all know that a 55% hit rate is the top decile across the industry, and the maths above demonstrates why. This is why industry hit rates are so low.
Christine Philpots of Aerial Investments has specialized in emerging markets and frontier markets. She’s a boots on the ground type of investor who focuses and specializes in emerging market value. What makes that style of investing so interesting and different is simply market inefficiencies.
Barry Ritholtz : you were head of strategy, product marketing, communications, like is that one job, is that four jobs? You know, this guy isn’t gonna be rattled by a market sell off or a crisis. 00:22:29 And is that something I should incorporate into my portfolio? And that’s, that’s really fascinating.
She was a partner and a portfoliomanager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. And so that’s when I thought, you know, there might be a hole in the market. It’s just the bonds were trading horribly, just because liquidity was gone for the market. It can be an LBO. MIELLE: Exactly.
Why don’t we just have a conversation in the studio about his beef with passive, why he thinks it’s a structural threat to the market? Now, I don’t believe the market structure is subject to the same risks as a single inverse trading instrument, but he makes a really compelling case for this is important.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. And then in a fit of madness, I guess, at the end of 2006, the credit markets were pretty uninteresting.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying. 00:12:21 [Speaker Changed] You get the markets return. Surprise, surprise.
But it was a tremendous experience because I had started off in bond trading, worked my way into portfoliomanagement and running the bond indexing team for a number of years, and then I got asked to take this responsibility, which was much broader. It’s client related, it’s media like we’re doing today.
I don’t have a Bloomberg to price these but I’m thinking if there’s a market for them, they have to be 30-35 cent on the dollar. Here I am talking not just portfoliomanagement but overall lifestyle, habits and choices and yes this does filter into my day job managing investment portfolios. wait, never mind.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. It’s a function of log normal returns that we see in, in stock markets. Outperform the market over decades and you’re a winner.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. So again, so it came back out to the market and it held on to all the pieces except Danaher. What’s the most current data point that may not have filtered into the market? They’d say it’s a crap market. So you’re implying that A, there’s a market inefficiency.
That experience those two things combined to really create a kind of unique perspective on the world of markets, on the world of risk, and on the world of models. Sander Gerber : Well, actually I was good at math. And it helped him emotionally to trade better because he realized that mother markets was gonna be right.
Markets The stock market is having its two best back-to-back years since the Dotcom boom. axios.com) Markets are, for now, shrugging off tariff threats. sherwood.news) Fund management How a portfoliomanager allocates trades matters. sherwood.news) Microstrategy ($MSTR) math doesn't math.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. I 00:13:35 [Speaker Changed] Met him at a, a, a Market Technician’s Association. What was the career plan? Oh, nice event.
So while you might once upon a time have thought about, you know, the Morgan Stanley financial advisors as, as, you know, serving that ultra high net worth, you know, core client, you know, now we’re, you know, serving folks in the mass market through E-Trade. I mean, let me just give you an example. Those are such non-normative terms.
If you are at all interested in fixed income, how you assess bonds, how you evaluate the economy, the market, what the fed’s gonna do, what clients want, how to assess risk in credit markets, well then you are gonna really enjoy this conversation. At the time, I ran a Mexican peso denominated portfolio, believe it or not.
Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Boldly flying in front of a stained glass window PortfolioManagement Sick of the ups and downs of the markets? Jan 08, 2023 Also, the article is wrong when it states that current math pedagogy favors boys over girls.
So your doctoral thesis asserted that consistently beating market averages was attainable by exploiting both value and momentum. Because, you know, there’s this constant fight in academia, if you believe something works, does it work because markets are efficient in its compensation for risk, or for behavioral reasons?
New York Times Magazine ) • Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns : A small band of quants is shining a light into the shadowy world of unlisted assets. He is the portfoliomanager of the Return Stacked ETF Suite, manging 800 million in ETF assets. Try these 15 factors instead. (
He, he does some really, really interesting research and gets deep into the weeds on things like market structure, liquidity cascades, what really drives returns, how much should you be focused on alpha versus beta. And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. And the stock market, you know, had a pretty big drop. And then it turns out, you know, the market, if you go from 91 forward market just sort of went up and business was good and it was good basically until maybe 2010.
And then, as it turns out, a switch flipped in the market in 2014 was a record, 2015 was a record. You know, that February, March market started to go, I mean, this started as a financial story, I guess, is how I got involved, which is that markets woke up to it very quickly, and things got hairy very fast.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
Every year at about this time, I outline the previous year’s load of terrible (mostly market) forecasts. What does that mean for the market?”) The economy, the markets, and the world-at-large provide unlimited fodder for them. ” Stock market forecasts reestablish this truth year after year.
For would-be market experts, their Kobayashi Maru is a public market target, most often included in an annual market preview publication. As I like to say, one forecast that is almost certain to be correct is that market forecasts are almost certain to be wrong. How will the market perform?
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