September, 2023

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Should Your Investment Manager Have Skin in the Game?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: My job is to run a concentrated 20 company portfolio (all listed companies, buy and hold, long term horizon etc.). I get a base salary and a bonus for performance. So a good amount of my annual earnings are tied to the performance of the companies I pick. I also have a small personal investment account. My question is around how I should think about investing this – should I use the fact that I spend.

Investing 124
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7 Economic Myths Busted

Carson Wealth

By Ryan Detrick, Chief Marketing Strategist We’ve been hearing many of the same myths over and over, yet we don’t think they are the big worry that the media and many make them out to be. These are legitimate concerns and have many investors worried, but we think the chances of them becoming larger issues are smaller than many expect. We are going myth busting today and here are seven of the biggest ones we’re targeting.

Economics 144
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Can Economists Predict Recessions?

The Big Picture

Before your week ends and you head out for door, I had to share a new paper from St. Louis Fed. The title: Can Economists Predict Recessions? Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). Beyond that short time frame, it’s simply too variable: “These questions have taken on particular importance recently. In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of

Economy 289
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Jeremy Grantham, Bubble Historian

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Valuation 306
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site The question with emerging market equities is if, not when. (abnormalreturns.com) The return on hassle is a real thing. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. (morningstar.com) Bull markets have four distinct stages. (ritholtz.com) The rise in real interest rates is stunning. (econbrowser.com) How retirement can open you up to new possibilities.

Math 276

More Trending

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The U.S. Housing Market vs. The Canadian Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Way back in 2017, I wrote about how bananas Canadian housing prices were. This was the chart I used at the time: Canada basically skipped the housing bust from the Great Financial Crisis. Well, things got even more bananas in the ensuing years. Here’s the updated version: Canadian housing prices can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent or something like that.

Marketing 137
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More Firms to Pay $79M To Settle SEC Off-Channel Communication Charges

Wealth Management

The firms, ranging from broker/dealers and dual registrants to affiliated investment advisors, include Interactive Brokers, Nuveen Securities and Baird, among others, and are similar to 2022 charges against Wall Street firms resulting in $1.1 billion in collective penalties.

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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 319
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New Research Helps Explain the Underperformance of Active Managers

Advisor Perspectives

By applying artificial intelligence and Chat GPT to statements made by active fund managers, researchers have found that their underperformance can be partly explained by overconfidence that led to, among other things, excessive risk taking.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Public predictions are exhausting. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How investors should re-think about their bond allocations. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What investors get wrong about the 'Yale Model.' (capitalallocators.com) How investors should think about their bond allocations. (blog.validea.com) How an inverted yield curve affects stock and bond market returns.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Lowest in 28 Years

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 1, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economy 135
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24 Things I Believe About Investing

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here are some things I believe about investing. 1. I believe simple beats complex. The problem is simple is much harder to implement because complex will always sound more intelligent and appealing. 2. I believe the timing of buy or sell decisions matters less than your holding period. Picking tops and bottoms is for the lucky and the liars. Patiently holding onto your investments is more important for most investors than.

Investing 132
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Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs – Portfolio Analysis!

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs : Goldman Sachs has been serving clients in India since the 1980s and established an onshore presence in Bengaluru, in 2004, Mumbai, India in December 2006 and a new office in Hyderabad opened in 2021 following a ten-year joint venture. Today, Goldman employs 9000+ Indians and serves leading corporate and institutional clients through corporate finance advisory, equity sales and trading, and fixed-income securities businesses, as well as providing macro-e

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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MiB: Jon McAuliffe, the Voleon Group

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Jon McAuliffe , who is co-founder and chief investment officer at the Voleon Group , heading the firm’s investment strategy, research, and development. Previously, he developed and managed statistical arbitrage trading strategies at D.E.Shaw. McAuliffe has a unique track record of successful innovation applying statistical methods to real-life prediction problems, particularly in the financial markets.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: Orion’s Eric Clarke on How Advisors Can Innovate, Disrupt and Win

Wealth Management

The outgoing CEO of Orion Advisor Solutions shares his journey from the founding of the company, the firm’s growth over the years and perspectives on the future of wealth management, technology and AI.

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Thursday links: perma-bear positioning

Abnormal Returns

Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. (wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. (theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open? (ft.com) Books A review of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by Victor Haghani and James White.

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Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in July

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during July 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,958.9 billion. The July figure is 5.5 percent above the July 2022 estimate of $1,869.3 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,548.9 billio

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Ten Years

The Irrelevant Investor

“I just have to say thank you. I’ve been in this business a long time. I’ve worked with a lot of people. You’re the first person who never lied to me.” I smiled as I felt the ball in the back of my throat swell up, fought back a tear, and gave my partner Jonathan Novy a hug. That experience took place at FutureProof, the best financial conference I’ve ever been to.

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Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. It was done with the aim of promoting financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked population. This population is situated generally in tier-3 & tier-4 areas. An SFBs main aim is to develop a market to promote a credit market to provide loans to MSMEs, among other lending services.

Banking 126
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Unemployment Up 0.3% = Fed on Hold

The Big Picture

The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.

Economy 310
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Why Now Might Be the Right Time for a Like-Kind Exchange

Wealth Management

One way to mitigate the impact of a failed exchange is “tax straddling,” which involves timing the exchange so the sale falls in one tax year and the receipt of proceeds in the following year.

Taxes 123
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Saturday links: outrage overload

Abnormal Returns

Autos Honda ($HMC) is adopting the Tesla charging standard. (theverge.com) Tesla ($TSLA) is going to install charging stations at Hilton Hotels in North America. (cnbc.com) Why you may end up with a EV at the car rental desk. (wsj.com) New cars are a data privacy nightmare. (theverge.com) Energy Solar is winning the energy transition. (noahpinion.blog) Putting solar panels on self-storage buildings is a no-brainer.

Food 265
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Personal Income increased 0.4% in August; Spending increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).

Food 127
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bubbles and BUBBLES

The Irrelevant Investor

Technology moves the world forward. For the past decade, it’s done the same thing for the stock market. A lot of time was spent debating if the Fed drove these stocks higher with low interest rates. Another theory is that investors are just chasing returns. And yet another is that index funds are making the big stocks even bigger. Bits and pieces of these theories may be true, but the simplest and best explanation a.

Marketing 124
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Where the Housing Bubbles Are

A Wealth of Common Sense

Jeremy Grantham was on The Compound and Friends with Michael and Josh last week talking bubbles. [link] says real estate is a global bubble and prices should fall 30% or so. I partially agree and partially disagree with Grantham here. I continue to believe the U.S. housing market is not in a bubble. Is the housing market broken in many way.

Marketing 122
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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The Least Bad Choice

The Big Picture

I have been watching various sentiment polls and Right/Wrong Track questionnaires with detached bemusement. Bemused because they are so silly, and detached because I know I can’t change human nature. What I can do is share a few modest insights; hopefully, these will allow you to gain a fresh perspective you might not have otherwise considered or perhaps even garner a better understanding of what is happening right here and now.

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The Healthy Advisor: Finding Courage to Leave an Abusive Relationship with Cary Carbonaro

Wealth Management

To an outsider, advisor Cary Carbonaro looked like a strong, successful woman. But behind closed doors, she faced physical, mental and verbal abuse on a daily basis in a toxic relationship.

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Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets

Meb Faber Research

Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets Guest: Liz Ann Sonders is the Chief Investment Strategist of Charles Schwab. She has a range of investment strategy responsibilities, from market and economic analysis to investor education, all focused on the individual investor. Recorded: 8/16/2023 | Run-Time: 57:07 Summary: In today’s episode, Liz Ann starts […] The post Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock

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