September, 2023

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Should Your Investment Manager Have Skin in the Game?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: My job is to run a concentrated 20 company portfolio (all listed companies, buy and hold, long term horizon etc.). I get a base salary and a bonus for performance. So a good amount of my annual earnings are tied to the performance of the companies I pick. I also have a small personal investment account. My question is around how I should think about investing this – should I use the fact that I spend.

Investing 138
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7 Economic Myths Busted

Carson Wealth

By Ryan Detrick, Chief Marketing Strategist We’ve been hearing many of the same myths over and over, yet we don’t think they are the big worry that the media and many make them out to be. These are legitimate concerns and have many investors worried, but we think the chances of them becoming larger issues are smaller than many expect. We are going myth busting today and here are seven of the biggest ones we’re targeting.

Economics 144
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Can Economists Predict Recessions?

The Big Picture

Before your week ends and you head out for door, I had to share a new paper from St. Louis Fed. The title: Can Economists Predict Recessions? Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). Beyond that short time frame, it’s simply too variable: “These questions have taken on particular importance recently. In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of

Economy 298
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Jeremy Grantham, Bubble Historian

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Valuation 306
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Thursday links: perma-bear positioning

Abnormal Returns

Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. (wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. (theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open? (ft.com) Books A review of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by Victor Haghani and James White.

More Trending

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24 Things I Believe About Investing

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here are some things I believe about investing. 1. I believe simple beats complex. The problem is simple is much harder to implement because complex will always sound more intelligent and appealing. 2. I believe the timing of buy or sell decisions matters less than your holding period. Picking tops and bottoms is for the lucky and the liars. Patiently holding onto your investments is more important for most investors than.

Investing 141
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Heavy Truck Sales Solid in August, Up 2% YoY

Calculated Risk

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for August today. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 136
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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 325
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New Research Helps Explain the Underperformance of Active Managers

Advisor Perspectives

By applying artificial intelligence and Chat GPT to statements made by active fund managers, researchers have found that their underperformance can be partly explained by overconfidence that led to, among other things, excessive risk taking.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site The question with emerging market equities is if, not when. (abnormalreturns.com) The return on hassle is a real thing. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. (morningstar.com) Bull markets have four distinct stages. (ritholtz.com) The rise in real interest rates is stunning. (econbrowser.com) How retirement can open you up to new possibilities.

Math 299
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How to Crush the CFP? Exam ?: Part 1

Alpha Architect

Let’s talk about the right approach(es) and the proper study techniques you need to pass the CFPⓇ exam with confidence and get the certification you need to advance your career in finance and investing. How to Crush the CFPⓇ Exam ?: Part 1 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

CFP 133
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Where the Housing Bubbles Are

A Wealth of Common Sense

Jeremy Grantham was on The Compound and Friends with Michael and Josh last week talking bubbles. [link] says real estate is a global bubble and prices should fall 30% or so. I partially agree and partially disagree with Grantham here. I continue to believe the U.S. housing market is not in a bubble. Is the housing market broken in many way.

Marketing 138
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Lowest in 28 Years

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 1, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economy 136
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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MiB: Jon McAuliffe, the Voleon Group

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Jon McAuliffe , who is co-founder and chief investment officer at the Voleon Group , heading the firm’s investment strategy, research, and development. Previously, he developed and managed statistical arbitrage trading strategies at D.E.Shaw. McAuliffe has a unique track record of successful innovation applying statistical methods to real-life prediction problems, particularly in the financial markets.

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Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs – Portfolio Analysis!

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs : Goldman Sachs has been serving clients in India since the 1980s and established an onshore presence in Bengaluru, in 2004, Mumbai, India in December 2006 and a new office in Hyderabad opened in 2021 following a ten-year joint venture. Today, Goldman employs 9000+ Indians and serves leading corporate and institutional clients through corporate finance advisory, equity sales and trading, and fixed-income securities businesses, as well as providing macro-e

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Research links: the inevitability of losses

Abnormal Returns

Trend following Trend following ignore narratives. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) How trend following can help diversify a portfolio. (priceactionlab.com) ESG Green investing strategies should be lower risk. (alphaarchitect.com) ESG leaders have been outperforming the market. (bloomberg.com) Behavior How scarcity affects decision making. (sciencedaily.com) The marshmallow effect and investment performance.

Banking 289
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Trend Following and Momentum Turning Points

Alpha Architect

Trend follower nerd alert: This study is important because it offers a comprehensive analysis of TS momentum strategies, its unifying framework that links performance to underlying variables, and its practical implications for investors seeking to enhance their understanding of momentum investing and improve their portfolio performance. Trend Following and Momentum Turning Points was originally published at Alpha Architect.

Portfolio 126
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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How to Outperform

A Wealth of Common Sense

Kerala is a coastal state in India with a large fishing industry. Beginning in 1997, mobile phones were introduced to the region. By 2001 more than 60% of the fishers and traders were using phones to coordinate sales and set prices for the fish. Robert Jensen used data from this market in a research paper called The Digital Provide to show how the addition of more information impacted fish prices in the marketplace.

Sales 136
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Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in July

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during July 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,958.9 billion. The July figure is 5.5 percent above the July 2022 estimate of $1,869.3 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,548.9 billio

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Unemployment Up 0.3% = Fed on Hold

The Big Picture

The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.

Economy 317
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Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets

Meb Faber Research

Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets Guest: Liz Ann Sonders is the Chief Investment Strategist of Charles Schwab. She has a range of investment strategy responsibilities, from market and economic analysis to investor education, all focused on the individual investor. Recorded: 8/16/2023 | Run-Time: 57:07 Summary: In today’s episode, Liz Ann starts […] The post Episode #498: Liz Ann Sonders on The State of the Markets appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock

Marketing 127
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Public predictions are exhausting. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How investors should re-think about their bond allocations. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What investors get wrong about the 'Yale Model.' (capitalallocators.com) How investors should think about their bond allocations. (blog.validea.com) How an inverted yield curve affects stock and bond market returns.

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Dissecting the Investment Factor

Alpha Architect

Investment predicts returns because, given expected profitability, high costs of capital imply low net present value of new capital and low investment, and low costs of capital imply high net present value of new capital and high investment. Dissecting the Investment Factor was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Investing 121
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How Rich Are American Households?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The Federal Reserve has tracked household balance sheet data going back to 1952. Each quarter they provide details on total financial assets and liabilities for households and nonprofit organizations. This data doesn’t tell us where the economy is heading but it can help understand how Americans are generally positioned for whatever happens next.

Nonprofit 134
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Personal Income increased 0.4% in August; Spending increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).

Food 128
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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The Least Bad Choice

The Big Picture

I have been watching various sentiment polls and Right/Wrong Track questionnaires with detached bemusement. Bemused because they are so silly, and detached because I know I can’t change human nature. What I can do is share a few modest insights; hopefully, these will allow you to gain a fresh perspective you might not have otherwise considered or perhaps even garner a better understanding of what is happening right here and now.

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Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. It was done with the aim of promoting financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked population. This population is situated generally in tier-3 & tier-4 areas. An SFBs main aim is to develop a market to promote a credit market to provide loans to MSMEs, among other lending services.

Banking 126
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Sunday links: household finances

Abnormal Returns

Finance Goldman Sachs ($GS) want to sell HNW clients a piece of a sports franchise. (frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. (hunterwalk.com) Fund management How securities lending works. (morningstar.com) A new ETF looks to generate income from selling daily options. (reuters.com) Apple Insights from this week's big Apple event.