Calculated Risk

JUNE 15, 2025

Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the July meeting, with the next rate cut in September, and a second rate cut in December. The May statement said that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”. Per the usual, markets will be focused on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Banking

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Labor Markets Employment ticked up on balance, with six Districts reporting a slight increase and six reporting no change. Vehicle sales grew modestly.

Economics

Wealth Management

JUNE 27, 2025

The WealthStack Podcast: Unlocking Private Markets with AssetMarks Michael Kim The WealthStack Podcast: Unlocking Private Markets with AssetMarks Michael Kim AssetMarks Michael Kim unpacks how technology, education and private equity access are converging to redefine portfolio construction.

Estate Planning

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

Economics

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. In March, sales in these markets were down 3.0%

Sales

Calculated Risk

JULY 30, 2025

FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.

Economics

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 3, 2024

The United States is the envy of the world in terms of financial markets and economic performance. Ruchir Sharma at The Financial Times outlines how this is impacting capital flows: Global investors are committing more capital to a single country than ever before in modern history.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 67, 2025. Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further , making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer. emphasis added

Economics

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 1718, 2024. A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

Economics

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

Market Timing vs. Time in the Market Updated January 28th, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team Though these terms may sound similar, market timing is not the same as time in the market. It all comes down to human psychology and the relationship between markets and volatility. Lets take a poll.

Marketing

Wealth Management

MAY 27, 2025

The migration of lending away from regulated banks and more transparent public markets creates potential risk.

Economics

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2025

The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. Markets are trying to digest a troika of unknowns: 1) What are the new proposals actually going to be? 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? In a word, the U.S.

Taxes

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. Im tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2025

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post analyzing borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points. trillion at the end of June 2025.

Economics

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. ” As the chart above shows, all the major Wall Street brokerage and bank strategists failed to anticipate how well the market would do in 2024 (Bloomberg’s chart below). One last reminder: All forecasts are marketing.

Banking

MainStreet Financial Planning

MARCH 12, 2025

Economic uncertaintywhether it’s due to market volatility, rising inflation, or potential recessionscan feel overwhelming. Here are five practical tactics to help retirees weather economic uncertainty: Take a Break from the News Constantly consuming news and social media can lead to unnecessary panic.

Economics

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 13, 2025

From there, we have several articles on investment planning: How interested financial advisors can evaluate different types of private investments, whose return profiles tend to be more opaque and challenging to analyze compared to publicly traded instruments Why one author sees a confluence of factors (including a relatively low cost of capital and (..)

Financial Planner

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025. Participants noted that monetary policy would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. A few participants saw risks to the labor market as having become predominant.

Economics

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 21, 2025

One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. We’ve been in a recession just 1% of the time since the end of the Great Financial Crisis in the summer of 2009. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S.

Economy

The Big Picture

JUNE 3, 2025

bond market sending ominous warnings, you may be wondering why America the country didn’t do what America’s households and companies did in the 2010s: Refinance all of its outstanding debt cheaply. Whether it was ideology, economic innumeracy, or simply idiocy does not matter. And suppose you were a member of Congress.

Economics

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve. percent rate so far this year. emphasis added

Economy

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

Like much of the housing market at the moment, home prices remained relatively flat coming into the fall,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.”

Economy

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

Inching Closer to New Highs Stocks had some drama last week as the president of the United States and the world’s richest man had a very public falling out, but that did little to slow down the bull market. The Rocky Balboa Market Something unique about 2025 so far is how stocks have bounced back when they’ve been down. It fell 20.5%

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2025

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7% Before Mid-Day Improvement Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. Because this was one of the weakest moments for the bond market, mortgage rates were sharply higher at first.

Economics

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2025

Who would ever have guessed that chaotically deploying a random set of discredited economic policies for 6 months would disrupt the economy and hurt the labor market…? Listen to my conversation with Neil Dutta from July for his economic warnings of a recession late 2025/early 2026). Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%

Economy

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

That amplified the initial market reaction, with a lot of volatility and a significant drawdown. Whatever comes next seems random and driven by individual whimsor the bond market vigilantes. Think of this as the discounting function of the markets, assessing a range of corporate revenues and profits over the next four quarters.

Economics

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

This alliance has the potential to challenge established power structures, particularly in global economic governance. By facilitating transactions in local currencies, it promotes economic cooperation among member states. In addition, adopting a BRICS currency aligns with India’s broader economic strategy.

Economics

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 With slowly-increasing housing inventory in many markets and first time homebuyers still in the mix, FHA purchase applications fared better with only a slight decline. percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics

Calculated Risk

JUNE 17, 2025

Also at 2:00 PM, FOMC Projections This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections. • The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at this meeting.

Economics

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 19, 2024

From housing economist Tom Lawler: According to CME FedWatch , the “market-based” probability that the FOMC will cut its federal funds rate target by 25 bp at its December meeting is about 59%. Folks will also play close attention to the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from meeting participants.

Economics

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

One potential positive is market breadth has held up quite well in the face of the near-bear market. Powell’s prepared remarks started off by saying the economy was/is in good shape, including labor markets and the inflation picture. The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure.

Marketing

Wealth Management

JUNE 10, 2025

RIA Edge Podcast: Schwab’s Jalina Kerr on How Resilient RIAs Can Turn Market Volatility Into Growth RIA Edge Podcast: Schwab’s Jalina Kerr on How Resilient RIAs Can Turn Market Volatility Into Growth Jalina Kerr of Charles Schwab shares how the most adaptive firms are expanding beyond portfolio management, into areas like estate and tax planning.

Wealth Management

Wealth Management

JULY 2, 2025

I heard anecdotally from a lot of the firms that the focus on millennials is kind of more of a marketing idea than an execution idea. “As that begins to shift, as wealth begins to shift down to Gen X, a lot of advisors see Gen X as the next great opportunity for advice. “I

Financial Advisor

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 25th, 2024 Pre-Holiday Optimism Lifts Markets Stocks advanced last week, powering ahead with pre-holiday optimism despite geopolitical tensions and two disappointing Q3 corporate updates. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was flat (-0.05 New Home Sales.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.

Economy

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 2829, 2025. Furthermore, some participants commented that with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure in the near future.

Economy

Calculated Risk

JUNE 18, 2025

FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated.

Economics