Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. In March, sales in these markets were down 3.0%

Sales 213

Sales Marketing Marketing Numbers 213

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2022 Below are my ten questions for 2023 (I've been doing this every year for over a decade!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably under 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economics 347

Economics Economy Sales Commission 347

Wealth Management

MAY 27, 2025

The migration of lending away from regulated banks and more transparent public markets creates potential risk.

Economics 177

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 177

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Labor Markets Employment ticked up on balance, with six Districts reporting a slight increase and six reporting no change. Vehicle sales grew modestly.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 67, 2025. Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further , making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer. emphasis added

Economics 207

Economics Government Risk Management Economy 207

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2025

The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. Markets are trying to digest a troika of unknowns: 1) What are the new proposals actually going to be? 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? In a word, the U.S.

Taxes 303

Taxes Economics Education Planning 303

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 1718, 2024. A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

Economics 273

Economics Accounting Financial Market Numbers 273

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

Economics 262

Economics Accounting Marketing Marketing 262

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. podcast.moneywithkatie.com) Real estate Mike Simonsen talks with Bill McBride about the state of the national housing market. youtube.com) Stephen Dubner on the crisis facing residential real estate brokers.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Investments Investing 162

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 8, 2024

The Federal Reserve’s signaling to market that their next moves will be rate cuts actually makes it more difficult to cut rates.

Economics 285

Economics Marketing Marketing 285

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration. These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. You might be surprised at the findings.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 316

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. Im tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas.

Marketing 162

Marketing Marketing Sales Numbers 162

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 3, 2024

The United States is the envy of the world in terms of financial markets and economic performance. Ruchir Sharma at The Financial Times outlines how this is impacting capital flows: Global investors are committing more capital to a single country than ever before in modern history.

Marketing 144

Marketing Marketing Financial Market Economics 144

Abnormal Returns

JULY 19, 2024

(infiniteloopspodcast.com) Real estate Derek Thompson talks with Mike Simonsen, president and founder of Altos Research, and Lance Lambert, cofounder and editor-in-chief of Residential Club, about the state of the American housing market. theringer.com) Julia LaRoche talks with Tyler Cowen about how AI will change society and the economy.

Economics 261

Economics Startup Communication Economy 261

Wealth Management

MAY 15, 2025

Behavioral economics can offer hope for helping clients navigate turbulent waters and stay focused on their long-term financial plan.

Economics 229

Economics Financial Planning Management Clients 229

Abnormal Returns

MAY 11, 2025

Markets The impact of macro events can take longer than you think. humbledollar.com) 2025 is not that unusual stock-market wise. marginalrevolution.com) Economy How much economic activity got pulled forward due to tariffs? tker.co) The economic data hasn't rolled over yet into recession.

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing Economics Media 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Labor Markets Employment rose at a slight to modest pace in most Districts.

Economics 289

Economics Manufacturing Insurance Engineering 289

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. ” As the chart above shows, all the major Wall Street brokerage and bank strategists failed to anticipate how well the market would do in 2024 (Bloomberg’s chart below). One last reminder: All forecasts are marketing.

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2024

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity expanded slightly , on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity.

Economics 273

Economics Manufacturing Sales Banking 273

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The chart shows the peak-to-trough declines of all the bear markets with the popular definition of a 20% decline, measured up until the start of the first 20% rally. As Batnick points out, all of these horrendous periods of market pain are already factored into long-term returns of equities. Have a look at the BAML chart above.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 28, 2022

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Market Softens, Sales Put on Hold Amidst Rising Rates and Economic Uncertainty Rising interest rates caused by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to combat inflation continue to impact the multifamily business. Click on graph for larger image.

Marketing 357

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 357

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

That amplified the initial market reaction, with a lot of volatility and a significant drawdown. Whatever comes next seems random and driven by individual whimsor the bond market vigilantes. Think of this as the discounting function of the markets, assessing a range of corporate revenues and profits over the next four quarters.

Economics 318

Economics Economy Communication Marketing 318

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

thebasispoint.com) Why you can't just talk about 'bonds' as a single market. econbrowser.com) The Fed is always dealing with economic crosscurrents. tker.co) Why economic data is iffier: lower response rates. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Rates The yield curve inversion is over.

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economics 278

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

Market Timing vs. Time in the Market Updated January 28th, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team Though these terms may sound similar, market timing is not the same as time in the market. It all comes down to human psychology and the relationship between markets and volatility. Lets take a poll.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Investments 98

Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2025

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7% Before Mid-Day Improvement Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. Because this was one of the weakest moments for the bond market, mortgage rates were sharply higher at first.

Financial Market 191

Financial Market Economics Marketing Marketing 191

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

Markets Jeff Somer, "Hedging and prediction markets are certainly worth knowing about, but for financial well-being, I believe that straightforward strategies are superior for most of us — as long as the great U.S. tker.co) The problem with broad emerging market indices. experiment endures." is booming.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 293

Wealth Management

MARCH 21, 2024

Financial advisors’ optimism over the economy and the markets ticked marginally up in February, dampened only by persistent inflation and uncertainty over upcoming national elections.

Economics 289

Economics Financial Advisor Economy Marketing 289

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.

Economy 222

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 222

MainStreet Financial Planning

MARCH 12, 2025

Economic uncertaintywhether it’s due to market volatility, rising inflation, or potential recessionscan feel overwhelming. Here are five practical tactics to help retirees weather economic uncertainty: Take a Break from the News Constantly consuming news and social media can lead to unnecessary panic.

Economics 78

Economics Asset Allocation Financial Planning Taxes 78

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

Like much of the housing market at the moment, home prices remained relatively flat coming into the fall,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.”

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Sales 277

Sales Numbers Economics Marketing 277

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 With slowly-increasing housing inventory in many markets and first time homebuyers still in the mix, FHA purchase applications fared better with only a slight decline. percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics 254

Economics Marketing Marketing 254

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2025

This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4. Fail better.

Investments 317

Investments Investing Math Media 317

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 21, 2025

One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. We’ve been in a recession just 1% of the time since the end of the Great Financial Crisis in the summer of 2009. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S.

Economy 122

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 122

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve. percent rate so far this year. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 28, 2024

humbledollar.com) What happens when you stop focusing on the stock market. wapo.st) The economic schedule for the coming week. Strategy Stop obsessing about the Fed's next move. tker.co) Why the vast majority of investors should avoid alternatives. wsj.com) Bitcoin Will Charles Schwab ($SCHW) eventually launch its own spot Bitcoin ETF?

Marketing 277

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 277

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in March. Im tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas.

Marketing 113

Marketing Marketing Sales Economics 113