The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economic Forecasts: What’s the Probability of a Recession in 2024?

Economy 285

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 285

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2025

axios.com) Strategy Don't let dividends take the wheel of your portfolio. politico.com) Economy The great yield curve inversion is over. nber.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. Markets The 2020s has seen nothing but big market moves. awealthofcommonsense.com) 30-year mortgage rates are at a six-month high.

Consulting 144

Consulting Media Economy Economics 144

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

riaintel.com) Do you really need a separate allocation to real estate in your portfolio? variety.com) Economy Inflation has stopped going down. Strategy Alternatives managers want in on the defined contribution space. morningstar.com) Growth in ETFs are a boon to Jane Street. theverge.com) Streaming has not killed off movie piracy.

Economics 199

Economics Financial Advising Insurance Media 199

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 12, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) Chances are, you don't need a bespoke portfolio. ft.com) Economy Q4 GDP is tracking at 2%. econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. tker.co) On the divergence between consumer sentiment and the economy. politico.com) Why the U.S.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Economics Economy Manufacturing 279

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) Seven reasons you may want to venture away from the market portfolio. nbcnews.com) Economy An economic soft landing is still on track. dallasfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. Strategy The stock market has changed so much over the past 50 years. Human behavior hasn't.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Economics Media Government 259

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 29, 2023

Strategy How (and where) to hold cash in your portfolio. ft.com) Global Germany's economy is off-track. wsj.com) Economy Case-Shiller national home prices were unchanged through June. calculatedrisk.substack.com) 19 economic charts worth a look including a look at increased business investment.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 261

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 21, 2025

ft.com) Strategy How to think about liquid alternatives in a portfolio (morningstar.com) Barry Ritholtz's "How NOT to Invest" is a master class for investors. nytimes.com) Economy Regional manufacturing surveys are rolling over. bonddad.blogspot.com) Some unconventional measures of economic weakness.

Engineering 130

Engineering Manufacturing Media Economy 130

Abnormal Returns

JULY 5, 2024

Economy Paul Podolsky talks with Lev Borodovsky, creator of The Daily Shot. paulpodolsky.substack.com) Tyler Cowen talks with Joseph Stiglitz, author of "The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society." conversationswithtyler.com) Roben Farzad talks with Hal Hodson about the mind-boggling solar revolution.

Economy 272

Economy Economics Management Portfolio 272

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 9, 2023

(axios.com) Venture capital Why more markdowns are coming to venture capital portfolio valuations. news.crunchbase.com) China China's economy is now experiencing deflation. economist.com) Economy A re-accelerating economy risks higher base inflation. hunterwalk.com) Do VC platform teams add value?

Financial Advising 238

Financial Advising Economy Valuation Consulting 238

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2023

economy—Treasury securities are the world’s “safe” asset and the dollar is the world’s main reserve currency. Although the resulting rebalancing in portfolios might be relatively gradual, it could lead to a decline in the dollar over time (although a sudden drop could not be ruled out) and a higher “country-risk” premium on all U.S.

Government 353

Government Assets Economy Financial Market 353

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

Strategy Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. morningstar.com) Real assets can be a portfolio drag during periods of quiescent inflation. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. wapo.st) China spends A LOT on agricultural subsidies.

Financial Advising 249

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 249

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 159

Economy Economics Food Banking 159

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. morningstar.com) A look at different variants of the 60/40 portfolio. etf.com) Economy The December NFP report showed continued payroll growth and a 3.7% (visualcapitalist.com) Long technology, short utilities was the trade in 2023.

Financial Advising 267

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 267

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? But here is the unexpected thing about those predictions: Even if your forecast of future events is correct, the odds are against you capturing it in your portfolio.

Economy 327

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 327

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 20, 2023

Strategy How to think about the bond sleeve of your portfolio. marketwatch.com) Economy Why the Fed needs a new model of inflation. bloomberg.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. fortunesandfrictions.com) The rise in interest rates is taking its toll on muni bond closed-end funds.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Insurance Media Retirement 245

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 3, 2023

etf.com) Portfolio managers won't outperform if they get it wrong about the biggest seven stocks. economy didn't go into recession this year. theatlantic.com) Why economic perceptions have been so negative. epsilontheory.com) Economy Heavy truck sales are at a record high in the U.S. economy afloat. people.com)

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Portfolio Management Economy Media 244

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. We don’t know if the Fed is right about anything – Economics is at best a squishy and imperfect soft science. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 3, 2023

wsj.com) Strategy Remember all that talk about how the 60/40 portfolio was broken? axios.com) Economy Josh Brown, "The economy ought to be able to heal itself for the most part. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Markets Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024?

Asset Allocation 258

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Startup Economy 258

Abnormal Returns

MAY 7, 2023

humbledollar.com) Concentrated portfolios come with a lot of psychological stress. nytimes.com) Policy How higher minimum wages make for a better economy. npr.org) Economy Catherine Rampell, "Even so, it’s strange that Americans are as dour as they are.Now just imagine how much more bummed out Americans would be if the U.S.

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Economy Banking Media 241

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 21, 2023

insights.finominal.com) Economy Aging isn't great for economic growth. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Adviser links: reducing portfolio volatility. (wsj.com) Comparing the diversification benefits of CTAs vs. global macro hedge funds. ft.com) Americans are driving more, but still below pre-pandemic levels.

Asset Allocation 246

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Media Assets 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 9, 2022

podcasts.apple.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks economic trends with Mohamed El-Erian. nytimes.com) Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal talk with Brad DeLong author of "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century."

Portfolio Management 244

Portfolio Management Economics Economy Management 244

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

ft.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a historically bad year. vox.com) Economy Small businesses are finding it easier to hire. wsj.com) The last few years broke a lot of economic indicators. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the first week of 2023. Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Medical Economics Media 273

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

morningstar.com) Achieving these three portfolio goals simultaneously is tough. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economy Economic anxiety isn't going anywhere. (integratinginvestor.com) Will music royalties turn out to be a worthy investment? wired.com) Asset allocation How various asset classes performed during a recession.

Asset Allocation 274

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Assets Media 274

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 21, 2024

microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. npr.org) Economy Why wealth inequality is growing. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Rates Allan Sloan, "Don’t fall in love with your money fund." barrons.com) You likely don't need a long-term bond fund.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Taxes Communication Manufacturing 274

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 2, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) How to dole out risk in your portfolio. nytimes.com) Regional banks are a linchpin for the economy. bloomberg.com) Economy Why we should be celebrating the current employment situation. unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Banking Economy Insurance 240

Trade Brains

JULY 6, 2022

Understanding How Does Stock Market Affect The Economy: The stock market and the economy are in a lot of talk in recent days. Seeing the market indexes declined by over 30% within a month, an obvious question among people is to understand how does the stock market affects the economy. How the Stock Market Affect the Economy?

Economy 98

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 98

Abnormal Returns

JULY 23, 2023

And when cash is yielding a high real return I think you can argue that cash is the ultimate portfolio insurance." anneapplebaum.com) Economy Why haven't higher interest rates wrecked the economy already? awealthofcommonsense.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Insurance Economy Retail 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

‘We must keep at it until the job is done.’ ( Wall Street Journal ) see also The “Data-Dependent” Fed and the Data Interpreting the mixed signals across the economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs, and market pricing. ( The Overshoot ). Were Those Great Returns the Result of Skill — or Just Luck? Of Dollars And Data ). •

Financial Advice 285

Financial Advice Engineering Economy Banking 285

Integrity Financial Planning

DECEMBER 11, 2023

If so, one thing you may want to keep an eye on is the design of your financial portfolio. Your portfolio may not be set up with the best possible spread of investments and assets. And while this strategy does have its merits, it can have some flaws in certain economic situations. [1]

Portfolio 97

Portfolio Economy Financial Guidance Financial Planning 97

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 18, 2023

humbledollar.com) Can you make your portfolio too simple? papers.ssrn.com) Economy The world is the most equal it has been in a century. foreignaffairs.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (rationalwalk.com) On the danger of getting addicted to 'dry powder.' msn.com) Blackrock ($BLK) has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Government Economy 246

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 21, 2024

disciplinefunds.com) Crypto A little Bitcoin in your portfolio goes a long way. nytimes.com) Rogé Karma, "Even as the pandemic has released its grip on our economy and civil society, it has yet to fully work its way through our politics." theatlantic.com) Economy Americans are pretty happy with their own finances.

Financial Advising 209

Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 209

Validea

MARCH 3, 2025

Elliott’s decade of experience leading research at one of the world’s premier hedge funds provides a rare window into institutional-level thinking that individual investors can apply to their own portfolios. He explains why claims of “this time it’s different” rarely hold true over longer time horizons.

Economics 52

Economics Portfolio Economy Marketing 52

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 10, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) Why it is counterproductive to look at your portfolio too often. investmentnews.com) Economy The U.S. economy is lapping the competition. sherwood.news) Seasonal adjustments matter when it comes to economic data. (wsj.com) The rest of the world does not have the Magnificent Seven.

Financial Advising 199

Financial Advising Startup Economy Insurance 199

Discipline Funds

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

During periods where Democrats were in total control the economy performed better, but the markets performed worse. And during periods of total Republican control the economy did worse and the markets performed better. No one has enough control to drive the economic car in a single direction. 1 So get out there and vote.

Economy 59

Economy Government Economics Engineering 59

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 3, 2024

Wired ) • If you want to know where the world economy is headed, look at the bottom of this toy car : We have a small collection of these cars, and occasionally I use them as a teaching tool. He is the portfolio manager for the Quality Fund ( GQETX ). As the Mac enters its fifth decade, Apple says it will continue to evolve.

Portfolio Management 287

Portfolio Management Economics Retail Manufacturing 287