Remove 2003 Remove Economics Remove Financial Services
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Market Commentary: S&P 500 Approaching All-Time High but US Economic Momentum Slowing

Carson Wealth

Other years that saw big returns after down days were 2003, 2008, 2009, 2020, and of course now. US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. Since 1980, only 2020 would be better than 2025 so far.

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Market Commentary: Tariffs Have Increased Market Uncertainty, but Job Growth Remains Solid

Carson Wealth

Our basic conclusion was that while we did see an increase in economic risks, it did not change our baseline view. Economic data has been coming in on the softer side (but not recessionary), and the February payroll data confirm the slowdown. Not what you want to see if youre looking for an acceleration in economic growth.

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Market Commentary: Taking a Look at the AI Economy as Stocks Approach New Highs

Carson Wealth

It subsequently pulled back by 8% over the next three years (2001-2003), an annualized pace of -2.7%. This will result in a big swing in its contribution to economic growth, from the positive side to the negative side. That doesn’t sound like a lot but a swing from +13% per year to -2.7% is significant.

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Market Commentary: Stocks Pause on Geopolitical Risk but Underlying Dyanamics Remain Positive

Carson Wealth

Markets saw strong gains despite the start of the Iraq invasion in 2003 and Israel’s Six-Day War in 1967. Despite several Middle Eastern conflicts that did not lead to market drawdowns, there are some that had market and economic repercussions. The Yom Kippur War in 1973 played at least some role in the ensuing market sell-off.

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Market Commentary: Seeing the Big Picture – Stocks Still Making New Highs and Household Balance Sheets Are Healthy

Carson Wealth

However, its lower than the minimum we saw during the 2003-2007 expansion cycle. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services. Meanwhile, card balances that are seriously delinquent (90+ days) is 0.62% of disposable income.

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Transcript: Apollo’s Torsten Slok

The Big Picture

WA was the career plan, always economics and finance. And I studied economics in university. And I spent a year in Princeton in the economics department in 95, 96 when Ben Panke was the chairman of the economics department. I’m curious how different studying economics is in Denmark versus United States.

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Market Commentary: Stocks Pause on Geopolitical Risk but Underlying Dynamics Remain Positive

Carson Wealth

Markets saw strong gains despite the start of the Iraq invasion in 2003 and Israel’s Six-Day War in 1967. Despite several Middle Eastern conflicts that did not lead to market drawdowns, there are some that had market and economic repercussions. The Yom Kippur War in 1973 played at least some role in the ensuing market sell-off.