The Big Picture
APRIL 28, 2025
We have no idea how good we had it. Lets consider the returns data from the period post-Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and then unpack what it might mean. Starting January 1, 2010, the S&P 500 generated a total return (with dividends reinvested) of 566.8% , or 13.3% per year from the start of 2010 through the end of Q1 2025. The Nasdaq 100 has nearly doubled that.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 21, 2025
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
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Wealth Management
MAY 14, 2025
Advisors can better serve wealthy clients through strategic charitable giving of appreciated assets, from real estate to business interests.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 23, 2025
During periods of market volatility, it's common for financial advisors to receive calls from clients who are nervous about what a steep market decline might mean for their portfolio and long-term financial goals. In these moments, an advisor's first instinct might be to take a logic-based approach – citing long-term market trends and encouraging the client to stay invested.
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Abnormal Returns
MARCH 17, 2025
Markets Corrections happen more often than you remember. (optimisticallie.com) Market moves just happen faster these days. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Books "Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meetings" by Alex Morris is a good refresher course. (newsletter.rationalwalk.com) A review of "The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck" by Davie Spiegelhalter.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 2, 2025
A regular theme around these parts is “ Nobody Knows Anything. ” Specifically, nobody knows what will happen in the future. This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. We do not know which geopolitical hot spot will erupt in turmoil; we have no idea where or when the next natural disaster will hit.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
MARCH 24, 2025
Calculation: BEA Table 3.1 Line 20 (Current Expenditures) divided by Table 1.1.5 Line 1 (GDP). Alternatively, Item #2 below divided by GDP. “ If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything. ” – Ronald Coase Hey, it’s @TBPInvictus. Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart t
The Big Picture
MARCH 3, 2025
Since March Madness is nearly upon us, how about a fun basketball story? I was lucky enough to be a hoops fan during the golden age of basketball: Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, the Bad Boy Detroit Pistons, Michael Jordan, and the perennially-on-the-verge-of-winning-it-all New York Knicks during the Patrick Ewing, John Starks, Charles Oakley, Anthony Mason era.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 4, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in January 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 26, 2025
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been Big Seller of Treasuries In an interview last week, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that any plans by the Treasury to extend the maturity were a long ways off. One of the reasons cited by Secretary Bessent was the Federal Reserves current balance sheet runoff policy. Here is a quote from Bessent.
Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 20, 2025
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 28.5% YoY.
The Big Picture
APRIL 15, 2025
I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. I am sharing this now because so many questions have poured in. Best Worst Cases Last Monday, I discussed the consequences of chaos. While the purposes of the new tariff policy were not well explained some of the goals were muddled and unclear it seems a large part of the problem was the roll-out.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 9, 2025
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 1819, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that i nflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded the magnitude and persistence of such effects. Several participants noted that the announced or planned tariff increases were larger and broader than many of their business contacts had expected.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased. Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 19, 2025
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: On a 12-month average basis, Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak. . Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts, and the only question is timing. Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.
The Big Picture
APRIL 17, 2025
Your Biggest, Most Avoidable, Unforced Investment Errors Adapted from How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them (Harriman House, March 18, 2025) By Barry Ritholtz Tariffs, inflation, war, debt ceiling, profit warnings, geopolitics, market volatility theres always something happening to fuel your urge to make a decision any decision!
The Big Picture
MARCH 31, 2025
A quick note on tariffs : Over the past few weeks, I’ve been putting together my quarterly call for clients. The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. Its easy to get distracted by the chaos of random policies that have been coming rapid-fire at Americans.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 4, 2025
From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Our monetary policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face as we gain a better understanding of the policy changes
Calculated Risk
APRIL 30, 2025
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.
Wealth Management
MAY 5, 2025
From the heads of mega-RIAs to solo practitioners, many wealth managers say outgoing Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has impacted their investing and management styles.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 29, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
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Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2025
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Experiences Loosening Conditions, Decreased Deal Flow and Less Available Financing to Start the New Year Apartment market conditions declined in the National Multifamily Housing Councils (NMHCs) most recent Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 23, 2025
During periods of market volatility, it's common for financial advisors to receive calls from clients who are nervous about what a steep market decline might mean for their portfolio and long-term financial goals. In these moments, an advisor's first instinct might be to take a logic-based approach – citing long-term market trends and encouraging the client to stay invested.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 10, 2025
Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.3% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2025.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 7, 2025
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November , up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
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Calculated Risk
JANUARY 14, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-January provides a snapshot of the current housing market. I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale ! Im watching months-of-supply closely. New home inventory, as a percentage of total inventory, is still very high.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 6, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moodys Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Offices Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply, And Industrial Maintains Status Quo Amid record-level inventory growth, average vacancy rate edged up 10 bps in each of the last two quarters and finished 2024 at 6.1%, 40 bps
Calculated Risk
APRIL 30, 2025
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 23, 2025
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined. The next graph shows new home sales for 2024 and 2025 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
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