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2024 Forecasting Follies

The Better Letter

Traditional market analysis has generally failed to grasp the inherent complexity and dynamic nature of the financial markets, which chaotic reality goes a long way towards explaining highly remarkable and volatile outcomes that seem inevitable in retrospect but were predicted by almost nobody. How will the market perform?

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Transcript: Christine Phillpotts, Ariel Investments

The Big Picture

And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. ’cause these are companies and in some cases countries that were never really fully integrated into the global financial system. And so as the global financial markets were in a tailspin, they were actually very resilient. Makes sense.

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The Evolution of Financial Advice

A Wealth of Common Sense

You need to understand how math, statistics and probabilities work. You need to understand corporations and the global economy generally function over the long haul. You also need a deep understanding of financial market history from booms to.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

You need to understand how math, statistics and probabilities work. You need to understand how corporations and the global economy generally function over the long haul. You also need a deep understanding of financial market history from booms to busts.

Math 268
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Numbers Are Not Reality

The Irrelevant Investor

It's important that investors learn about market history and have a basic understanding of math, but beyond that, less might actually be more. In only six months, the stock market lost a third of its value. One of the more unsettling realities of investing is that we cannot rely on data from the past to guide us in the future.

Numbers 52
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From Rocket Ship to Roller Coaster

Investing Caffeine

However, the fact remains the economy remains strong, corporate profits are at record levels, unemployment is low, and interest rates remain at attractive levels despite nagging inflation ( see chart below ) and the removal of accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Math Matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.

Math 52
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RIA Net Organic Growth is Practically Non-Existent

Steve Sanduski

In other words, essentially all the revenue growth for RIA firms in the Schwab study over the past five years was simply due to growth in the financial markets. Organic growth is the lifeblood of a business and without it, you are at the mercy of volatile financial markets. Crunch the Numbers. Revenue Growth.

Math 52