Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 22, 2022

In 2001 I got laid off from Schwab, sold our house in Scottsdale while I went to work at Fisher Investments for most of 2002, keeping our cabin in Walker which we moved into full time late that year and have been living in Walker ever since. In a way we've been retired since 2002. Like I said, we took calculated risks.

Investments

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 25, 2022

Going back to 2002 and PRPFX has a CAGR that beats VBAIX by 74 basis points annually thanks mostly to how well gold did in the first decade of this century. Portfolio 1 is 75% SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)/25% client and personal holding BTAL, Portfolio 2 is 100% PRPFX and Portfolio 3 is 100% VBAIX.

Portfolio

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 6, 2024

In 2000, BPLSX outperformed by 69%, in 2001 it outperformed by 37%, 22% in 2002 and 46% in 2009. That is not a bad result but might be less than you'd think when looking at the CAGR numbers. I outlined the four years that account for just about all of the long term outperformance.

Assets

Brown Advisory

APRIL 1, 2020

These strategies may include the conversion of an IRA or qualified retirement plan to a Roth IRA , because the tax consequences of such a conversion are based on asset values at the time of conversion, and any future growth in value will avoid income taxation, both within the plan and at the time of distribution to the plan beneficiary.

Strategic Planning

Brown Advisory

APRIL 1, 2020

These strategies may include the conversion of an IRA or qualified retirement plan to a Roth IRA , because the tax consequences of such a conversion are based on asset values at the time of conversion, and any future growth in value will avoid income taxation, both within the plan and at the time of distribution to the plan beneficiary.

Strategic Planning

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 12, 2024

The Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) peaked out in $60 in 2000 and it bottomed in 2002 at $12. Marketwatch had a useful summary of a paper from Emory University that concludes the optimal retirement portfolio allocation is 33% domestic stocks and 67% foreign stocks, so no bonds. The tech sector isn't going to zero. Bitcoin is all risk.

Portfolio

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 11, 2024

The first from when I worked at Fisher Investments in 2002. A tiny slice of the portfolio into one of these, provided there was a fund with two names that you liked, could be a way to allocate to asymmetry. I've told this 100 times but two connections for me to asymmetry or barbelling.

Portfolio

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

Even before that, a story I've told many times, when I was at Fisher Investments in 2002 there were a couple of guys who talked about getting a return equal to the S&P 500 by shorting Nikkei Futures with just 2% of the portfolio and 98% in cash.

Portfolio

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2023

One is that a politician who votes to cut benefits or raise the retirement age will probably lose some voter support. Keep in mind that extending the full retirement age (FRA) to 68 or 69 or whatever is a de facto benefit cut. Now comes the grim numbers about how much we have collectively saved for retirement.

Retirement

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 24, 2024

Merger arbitrage could have some sort of problem I suppose but the under the symbol MERFX, which goes back to 1990, the worst year for the fund was 2002 when it dropped 5.67% but during that year it did go down 14% before recovering most of that decline before the year ended. That can only be taken as a proxy but it's better than nothing.

Portfolio

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Mr. Backhoe recruited both of us into the fire department in 2002. Somehow, I made it into Prescott, into the parking lot of what I think was an O'Reilly's and it stalled out halfway into the parking spot due to the dip in the lot, four feet short of where I wanted to park. Joellyn and I had a pretty good laugh over that.

Engineering

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 16, 2025

I visited Walker on my second date with my future wife in 1991 and realized it was the answer but we didn't land there full time until 2002. If you're 50, you should have at least a general sense of when you want to retire how much you might need (rough number is fine) and where you stand in relation to that number.

Healthcare

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 18, 2025

First, it was up in 2000, 2001 and 2002 while the S&P 500 was in the process of cutting half. I own a few shares of FIRS out of curiosity, it has an interesting take on the Permanent Portfolio. Speaking of PRPFX, building a core around that is not a bad idea, there will be drawbacks but it is not crazy. In 2022 it was only down 5.49%.

Management