The Big Picture
MAY 23, 2024
Nothing truly occurs in a vacuum. All events have preceding factors, with many prior elements bubbling below the surface, most of which you didn’t even know existed. Unintended consequences of this action here will result in over there. If the flapping of a Butterfly’s wings can be felt halfway around the world, imagine the impact of the largest central bank intervention and emergency government fiscal program in the modern era.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 30, 2024
Books An excerpt from "In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work" by Kyla Scanlon. (kyla.substack.com) A Q&A with Teresa Ghilarducci author of "Work, Retire, Repeat: The Uncertainty of Retirement in the New Economy." (fa-mag.com) An excerpt from Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.’s new book, "The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century.
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Nerd's Eye View
MAY 20, 2024
Ongoing research into how advicers can structure their practices to be better and more successful has consistently highlighted the benefits of choosing to serve a specific niche. In fact, the more specific the niche, the better, as a highly specialized niche not only allows an advicer to differentiate themselves in a crowded marketplace of other 'generalist' advicers, but also helps them build a more efficient practice where they serve clients who share similar characteristics (and puzzles to so
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 19, 2024
Few practices in the business world are as absurd, senseless, irrational, and cynical as the allocation of investments of large public pension funds and endowments. And few fail so often and so predictably to achieve their true objectives.
Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem
Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i
Calculated Risk
MAY 29, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 24, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
MAY 20, 2024
My long-standing skepticism about survey data has reached the point where I feel compelled to comment on the current state of the art. While it is always risky to ignore broad deep reliable surveys I’m following up on a few prior sentiment posts. First off, I am not discussing online surveys; those easily gained and worthless. Rather I am discussing the regular surveys that come in to people through their landlines texts and mobile phones.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 19, 2024
Top clicks this week Three assets that don't diversify your portfolio as well as you think. (morningstar.com) The problematic math of passing down generational wealth. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) International diversification requires a long time horizon. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The S&P 500 is now nearly 40% of global market cap. (apolloacademy.com) Don't confuse selling calls with income.
Trade Brains
MAY 17, 2024
In today’s world, we’re constantly surrounded by a symphony of technology. From the quiet hum of our laptops to the dazzling display of our smartphones, these marvels rely on a hidden partnership between batteries and electronic solutions. Batteries and electronics are the unsung heroes of our modern world. Their seamless partnership is so deeply embedded in our daily lives that we often take them for granted.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 17, 2024
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. economy.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Calculated Risk
MAY 30, 2024
The DOL reported : In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000 , an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MAY 17, 2024
These are the trailing total returns for the U.S. stock market1 over various time frames: Year to date: +11% One year: +30% Five years: +94% Ten years: +223% Fifteen years: +679% Not bad considering we’ve had two bear markets in the past four years. If you put $10,000 into the U.S. stock market five years ago, your money has essentially doubled: Now look at the returns by year: 2019: +31% 2020: +21% 2021: +26% 2022.
The Big Picture
MAY 2, 2024
The Fed held its benchmark Federal-Funds rate steady yesterday at 5.25% – 5.5%, leaving the possibility of cuts in the future. Jerome Powell repeated his “ Data Dependent ” mantra. “Persuasive evidence” that higher interest rates were no longer necessary to bring down inflation is what the FOMC wants, and today I want to share a few pieces of that evidence.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 29, 2024
Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Carl Richards about the behavior gap and how to avoid it. (ritholtz.com) Shane Parrish talks with Morgan Housel author of "Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes." (youtube.com) Amy Arnott and Christine Benz talk with Jamila Souffrant author of "Your Journey to Financial Freedom: A Step-by-Step Guide to Achieving Wealth and Happiness.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Carson Wealth
MAY 23, 2024
One of the most important decisions you’ll make when designing your estate plan is who to name in the various fiduciary roles: trustee, personal representative, executor and agent. While a critical decision, it’s often given significantly less thought than the distribution of your assets. But even a meticulously designed estate plan drafted by an accomplished estate planning attorney can fail to achieve its purpose if the trustee fails to administer the trust properly.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 30, 2024
The U.S. economy grew at a slower than expected pace to start off the year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in Q1 2024, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate is lower than the forecasted 1.6% growth and is a slowdown from the Q4 2023 GDP final estimate of 3.4%.
Calculated Risk
MAY 13, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the February bottom, and almost above the maximum for inventory last year! Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 10th, inventory was at 568 thousand (7-day average), compared to 560 thousand the prior week.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MAY 19, 2024
Four charts about the economy you might find surprising: 1. Wages are cumulative too. The Congressional Budget Office released new research comparing inflation on a basket of goods and services households at different income levels consume between now and 2019 along with changes in wages. Here’s the chart: And the explanation: For households in every quintile (or fifth) of the income distribution, the share of inc.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
The Big Picture
MAY 9, 2024
Nestled in between lip-sync dancers and fashion influencers, financial fraud lurks on TikTok. At least one person1 has noticed the risks to young consumers of social media: Since August 2020, @TikTokInvestors has been curating the most outrageous money-losing and dangerous videos culled from the “financial experts” at TikTok. The advice ranges from wrong to risky to criminal: -401ks?
Abnormal Returns
MAY 4, 2024
EVs What is going to become of Tesla's ($TSLA) charging network? (washingtonpost.com) Do EVs need artificial noises? (axios.com) Autos Automatic braking will soon be a standard, required feature on cars. (theverge.com) Do you really want a GM ($GM) car without Apple CarPlay? (bloomberg.com) What goes into a VIN? (theconversation.com) Energy Why Plant Vogle could be the last large scale nuclear power plants built in the U.S.
Trade Brains
MAY 10, 2024
Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern: Technical analysts rely heavily on chart and candlestick patterns to conduct comprehensive analyses of stock prices and accurately predict their future movements. Each pattern formed in the market has a clear and justified reason behind its formation and indicates the market’s direction. Here in this article, we shall discuss a two-candlestick pattern called the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern with its meaning, formation, indication, and how to
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 30, 2024
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.25%, a deceleration from 3.40% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 0.79%, a decrease from 2.79% for the Q4 headline number.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
Calculated Risk
MAY 20, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 17.0% from the February bottom, and above the maximum for inventory last year! Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 17th, inventory was at 578 thousand (7-day average), compared to 568 thousand the prior week.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MAY 7, 2024
One of my favorite pop culture developments in recent years is the famous person press tour. If you write a new book or have a new movie or TV show coming out, you have to talk to every outlet imaginable to sell your project. There is so much content and so much competition for our attention these days that even uber-successful people are forced to make the hard sell.
The Big Picture
MAY 16, 2024
The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma
Abnormal Returns
MAY 12, 2024
Top clicks this week We are in the midst of a historic bond bear market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why TIPS are more attractive than nominal bonds at this point. (morningstar.com) Charlie Munger was constantly learning and "unlearning." (davisfunds.com) Stocks have stopped going up. (sherwood.news) Don't take your investing advice from TikTok. (ritholtz.com) The number of single-stock ETFs is growing.
Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®
Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?
Wealth Management
MAY 29, 2024
FSI Wealth Management, a San Diego, Calif.-based team with $215 million in assets, is joining LPL from Securities America, in the wake of Osaic's integration and rebranding efforts.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 20, 2024
Relative to 18 developed economies since 1870, U.S. leverage is high though not unprecedented. However, unless the recent rise in interest rates reverses, the U.S. will need to cut its debt load.
Calculated Risk
MAY 29, 2024
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 2024: Reports from 4,568 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) report aggregate net income of $64.2 billion in first quarter 2024, an increase of $28.4 billion (79.5 percent) from the prior quarter. A large decline in noninterest expense because of several substantial, non-recurring items recognized by large banks in the prior quarter, as well as higher noninterest income and lo
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