Calculated Risk
APRIL 13, 2025
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will be released on April 30th. The data released so far suggests the PCE inflation will be soft in March. From Goldman Sachs economists: The producer price index (PPI), the PPI excluding food and energy, and the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade were all below consensus expectations in March.
The Big Picture
APRIL 13, 2025
In the latest edition of more or me, I chat with my friend Eric Golden: I speak My guest today is Barry Ritholtz. As the founder & CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management Barry manages assets of over $5B. He is also a famous author and commentator, fondly known as the ‘Prickly Prophet of Wall Street’ for his contrarian views. In this conversation, Barry shares the origin story and the ideas behind his latest book, “How Not to Invest.” We also talk about how hes remained a
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Abnormal Returns
APRIL 13, 2025
Top clicks this week Why this is different than the GFC. (morningstar.com) What is the basis trade? (apolloacademy.com) 'Sell America' includes selling Treasurys. (morningstar.com) How long does it take for the stock market to recover from a bear market? (ofdollarsanddata.com) How often do corrections turn into bear markets? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Markets are moving faster than ever before.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 13, 2025
Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 13, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 250 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $64.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $93 - so WTI oil prices are down about 28% year-over-year.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 13, 2025
Volatility is heightened right now. We have volatility in markets, government policy, trade and supply chains, which translates into emotional volatility. Let’s look at some of the ways this manifests through a host of behavioral biases that impact us all in some way: Recency biasis when you give more weight or importance to recent events. Stocks are up.
Wealth Management
APRIL 13, 2025
Noah Doyle and Charles Princiotto left Janny Montgomery Scott's affiliation to launch SoundRidge Private Wealth using Wells Fargos 1099 model.
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Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
APRIL 13, 2025
By Matt Pais, MDRT Senior Content Specialist Many clients understand the importance of sharing information with advisors. Occasionally, though, some dont. What should you say to these people? When one client refused to show financial statements to Ozer Culhagil, Ph.D., the 16-year MDRT member asked why. I dont like financial advisors, the client responded.
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
APRIL 13, 2025
Man Institute wrote about how to prepare for an equity drawdown. The hedge combo they decided on, paired with 75% in equities, was to equalweight the hedge sleeve with "quality" long short, gold/silver, the ten year US treasury and long Swiss franc-short Aussie dollar currency pair. Many years ago we looked at long Aussie-short Swiss franc as a proxy for speculation so it is interesting that Man spun it around to function as a hedge.
The Big Picture
APRIL 13, 2025
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: Crashing the Car of Pax Americana : Pax Americana is the Bretton Woods monetary system and the Plaza Accords and the SWIFT banking system and the unquestioned dominance of the USD as the worlds reserve currency. It is the NATO alliance and the Pacific Fleet and CENTCOM and the NSA and the unquestioned dominance of the US military as the worlds security arbiter.It’s American brands, American universiti
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 13, 2025
Rates 30-year mortgage rates are once again above 7.0% (mortgagenewsdaily.com) TIPS are getting hurt worse than nominal Treasurys. (fa-mag.com) Some explanations for the Treasury sell-off. (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Treasury volatility is crazy high. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) If the U.S. Treasury market isn't the global safe haven, what is? (nytimes.com) Markets How good is the P/E ratio if E is uncertain?
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