James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained.

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James Hendries

MARCH 6, 2023

Suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity. Analogies eventually break down, especially this one. Why The “Landing” Analogy?

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James Hendries

JANUARY 26, 2023

Topic 1: Economy Bull case: Consumer is resilient, the labor market is strong, wages are rising, and inflation is coming down steadily. Background: The global economy will likely slow from the upper-2% range in 2022 down to slightly above zero in 2023 ( Figure 1 ). Call us cautious bulls. Our take: The U.S.

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 11, 2022

A stimulus packed government ‘mini budget’ announcement that included significant unfunded tax cuts sent sterling spiraling to an all-time low of $1.035 per pound, see Figure 1 , as currency markets panicked about the U.K.’s government backtracking on some of the tax cuts) but have been edging up again in the past few days.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

economy is in or about to enter recession, so we thought a piece on what a recession might mean for the stock market would be of interest. economy is not currently in recession, odds are still perhaps a coin flip or better that one may come in the next year. While Friday’s strong jobs report provides more evidence that the U.S.

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Given the country’s weak economy, due in large part to stringent zero-COVID-19 measures that have led to strict and prolonged lockdowns, coupled with a debt-laden property market, authorities in Beijing and throughout the Chinese provinces will need to focus on reviving the country’s economic underpinning. At the same time, U.S.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

We think the move lower in yields may be a bit premature as we expect the economy to stay out of a recession this year. Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 7, 2022

economy following disappointing August inflation data was the top cause of the market’s struggles. Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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James Hendries

JULY 3, 2023

economy remains on solid footing, and expectations the Fed is close to completing its rate hiking campaign, bankers are hopeful they can begin taking a growing pipeline of companies public. economy and corporate America have has been impressive. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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James Hendries

MARCH 13, 2023

For the “no landing” crowd thinking strong consumer spending and low unemployment would keep this economy growing until the inflation fight is won, they now have to consider signs of stress in the banking system after the failure of SVB Financial (commonly known as Silicon Valley Bank).

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James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

Perhaps the market’s biggest fear has been that the Fed may overdo its tightening to fight inflation and send the economy into a painful recession, break something, or both. He acknowledged that the economy is slowing (which is what the Fed wants) and that the full effect of the rate hikes had not yet been felt. Of course, the U.S.

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The key to getting the market back into balance is a bigger labor force, and the economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market. The global economy is complex, and a simplification of reality always introduces distortions, so perhaps we should zoom out a bit.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

Market participants remained on edge due to high inflation and the risk that the Federal Reserve over-tightens monetary policy to combat it, potentially sending the economy into recession. Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. The Economy Slows But Inflation Follows Too Slowly. economy grew at a 2.6%

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 25, 2022

economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. Diffusion describes an economy that has experienced a contraction in a wide range of sectors, such as trade, business activity, and consumer spending. If the U.S. At LPL Research, our starting point is always looking at history. Technical Definition.

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James Hendries

JUNE 26, 2023

economy and corporate America has been impressive. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. 06/2024)

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

However, as Fed rate hikes flow into the real economy, the risk of a recession increases, which should help bring down yields. Over the past six months, the Fed has been aggressively raising short-term interest rates in an effort to arrest these continued consumer price increases and deliberately slow the economy.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 20, 2023

economy grew at a solid 3.2% and European economies, currency effects, and some mitigation of profit margin pressures from cost controls and lower inflation. economy may “muddle through” and skirt recession. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. And don’t forget the U.S.

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ClearMoney

FEBRUARY 21, 2022

We believe current market prices quickly incorporate expectations about the effects of these events on economies and companies. Our investment approach centers on using information in current market prices rather than trying to outguess them. One way is through government sanctions. Dimensional Japan Ltd., UNITED STATES.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 13, 2023

The expectation was predicated on the view that inflation pressures would ease as global economies recalibrated to a post-pandemic environment. economy to avoid recession, and support above-average valuations. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

The news on the economy and corporate profits hasn’t been great lately, but thanks to low expectations, it’s been good enough to push stocks nicely higher. economy into recession, causing unemployment to rise and slashing corporate profits. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. Encouraging Signs.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 31, 2023

economy is only facing a growth scare and muddles through on the back of a resilient consumer who is flush with cash. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. Finally, while we believe recession risk remains high, there is the chance the U.S.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 18, 2022

economy in mid-March, 62% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, and aggregate earnings were within one percentage point of expectations. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, so the ISM index tends to have some predictive power when it comes to earnings. The S&P 500 is more manufacturing-heavy than the U.S.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 30, 2022

The numerous challenges last quarter included a slowing economy, intensifying inflation pressures, ongoing global supply chain disruptions, and a surging U.S. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

The economy is now employing more workers in temporary help services than ever before, and this could be a cause for concern. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. Odds of another 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed have come down but 50 vs. 75 is still a close call.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Forward-looking sales estimates paint a more subdued picture, which makes sense given the macro headwinds facing the economy and the consumer. Faster than expected deceleration in inflation and the economy avoiding a recession altogether (i.e., Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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ClearMoney

DECEMBER 5, 2021

Exhibit 1 shows that roughly half the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries have general government debt-to-gross domestic product2 (debt/GDP) ratios above 70%, with 10 countries—including the US, Japan, and the United Kingdom (UK)—exceeding 100%. Turning to the Data.

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ClearMoney

DECEMBER 5, 2021

Exhibit 1 shows that roughly half the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries have general government debt-to-gross domestic product2 (debt/GDP) ratios above 70%, with 10 countries—including the US, Japan, and the United Kingdom (UK)—exceeding 100%. Turning to the Data.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 25, 2023

So, Brian is not a stranger to me, and we have some shared financial interests, but the reason I wanted to bring him in here is there are few people in the industry who have a better perch by which to look at the world of registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, all of the changes that are taking place in the space.

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James Hendries

JULY 6, 2022

economy will avoid recession. The good news is that if the economy does contract to the point where it is officially labeled a recession (the National Bureau of Labor Statistics makes that call), the impact will likely be muted somewhat by the strong financial position enjoyed by consumers heading into it.

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James Hendries

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,” the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations, likely in the summer or early fall.

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James Hendries

JULY 21, 2022

A global economy that was already vulnerable to inflation from supply chain disruptions, tight labor markets, excess stimulus, and loose monetary policy came under more pressure when Russian aggression in Ukraine added sharply rising commodity prices and put Europe on the brink of recession. In the midst of the storm. under a Democrat.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

This alone would be enough to give us a mixed government, where a party different from the president’s controls at least one Chamber of Congress. With the economy exhibiting low growth and generationally high inflation, these additional factors point to the House very likely flipping with some possibility of a wave election for Republicans.

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