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Saturday links: the passage of time

Abnormal Returns

Autos Waymo cars are making 50,000 paid trips a week. (engadget.com) Pedestrian deaths are a function of speed. (vox.com) Detroit may regret killing off the sedan. (fastcompany.com) Why auto insurance premia are soaring. (nytimes.com) Why 'stroads' are the bane of American cities. (wsj.com) Transport GPS spoofing continues to grow. (ft.com) Urban transit systems are struggling post-pandemic.

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What Stagflation?

The Big Picture

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma

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DoL’s Retirement Security Rule & PTE 2020-02 Amendment: What Advisers Need to Know Now About Giving Rollover Advice After Sept 23, 2024

Nerd's Eye View

On April 25, 2024, the Department of Labor (DoL) issued the final version of its Retirement Security Rule (the "Final Rule"), which imposes an ERISA fiduciary standard "that applies uniformly to all investments that retirement investors may make with respect to their retirement accounts ". The new rule represents the latest attempt by regulators to define the types of individuals and advice that are subject to a fiduciary obligation, following on the heels of the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (

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CB Leading Economic Index: Softer Economic Conditions Ahead

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. economy.

Economics 119
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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Diversification is About Decades

A Wealth of Common Sense

A lot of investors have abandoned international diversification (or at least strongly considered it) in recent years. I understand why this is happening. The U.S. stock market has destroyed all comers ever since the Great Financial Crisis ended. Since 2009, a total U.S. stock market index fund is up more than 660% while a total international index fund is up more like 180%.

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Monday links: destinations unknown

Abnormal Returns

Netflix Don't be surprised if Netflix ($NFLX) starts airing NFL games. (spyglass.org) How Netflix ($NFLX) became the future of television. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) BREIT How has BREIT shrugged off the downturn in commercial real estate? (insights.finominal.com) Why private real estate may not belong in a structure like BREIT. (citywire.com) Fund management Why closed-end funds can trade above NAV for extended periods of time.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (May 18-19)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study indicates that while overall social media engagement for financial services companies was down in 2023 compared to the previous year, firms boosted their engagement through posts that were entirely original content (rather than sharing third-party content), spoke to the firm's or advisor's principles (with posts responding to current news topics lagging), an

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Fourth Consecutive Weekly Gain

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain after notching a new all-time high this week. The index is currently up 11.82% year to date and has recorded a new all-time high 23 times this year.

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Social Media: The Value of Seeking Alpha’s Recommendations

Alpha Architect

The finding that the recommendations from SA articles resulted in statistically significant risk-adjusted alphas (returns unexplained by conventional academic models using factors such as the market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and quality for equity portfolios) is surprising given that the empirical evidence shows how difficult it is for institutional investors such as mutual funds to show outperformance beyond the randomly expected (as can be seen in the annual SPIVA Scorecards) beca

Media 109
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Heavy Truck Sales Increased in April

Calculated Risk

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 124
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Podcast links: reviewing products

Abnormal Returns

Business Logan Bartlett talks with Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. (podcasts.apple.com) Sam Dogen talks with Emily Luk, Co-Founder and CEO of Plenty. (sites.libsyn.com) Private credit Matt Reustle talks the evolution of private credit with Armen Panossian is the co-CEO of Oaktree. (joincolossus.com) Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk about whether private credit is all that special.

Banking 207
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Kitces & Carl Ep 138: Crafting Your Own Stop-Doing List To Create Capacity For What Really Matters

Nerd's Eye View

In the initial stages of their careers, many financial advicers find that, with little revenue coming in and less than a full load of client-facing work to do, they spend the majority of their time on operations and marketing as they try to establish their practice. As a result, an advicer often has the capacity to say "yes" to any opportunity that comes along as they try to keep busy and (hopefully) improve their cash flow.

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Gambler’s Fallacy in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

These are the trailing total returns for the U.S. stock market1 over various time frames: Year to date: +11% One year: +30% Five years: +94% Ten years: +223% Fifteen years: +679% Not bad considering we’ve had two bear markets in the past four years. If you put $10,000 into the U.S. stock market five years ago, your money has essentially doubled: Now look at the returns by year: 2019: +31% 2020: +21% 2021: +26% 2022.

Marketing 107
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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The Dow Hit 40,000. It Doesn’t Matter

Advisor Perspectives

Huge news from the markets today: The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 40,000 points for the first time. The number is splashed across financial news sources the world over (including Bloomberg), even though the index closed back below the threshold by the end of trading.

Numbers 104
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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.9% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April2024.

Food 115
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Sunday links: selling a product

Abnormal Returns

Markets No news is good news for the stock market. (tker.co) The stock market has gone nowhere the past 10 weeks. (allstarcharts.com) What Wall Street jargon really means. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is now taking AI seriously. (nytimes.com) Adobe ($ADBE) is walking a fine line when it comes to AI. (theatlantic.com) Funds Mutual funds just keep closing.

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#FA Success Ep 385: Unblocking Clients That Won’t Implement With A Journey Of Financial Health, With Danielle Howard

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 385th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Danielle Howard. Danielle is the owner of Wealth By Design, a hybrid advisory firm based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, that oversees about $35 million in assets under advisement for 35 client households. What's unique about Danielle, though, is how she has created a process she calls "Financial Fingerprints To Footprints ", where she helps clients who are struggling to implem

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Jai Balaji Industries: Forging Ahead with Growth and Sustainability

Trade Brains

Steel is the sinew of a nation. From towering skyscrapers to sturdy bridges and the intricate machinery that powers industries, steel is woven into the fabric of our progress. Jai Balaji industries, a fully integrated steel company is pushing their boundaries for innovation, crafting lighter, stronger and even more sustainable steel, shaping a future as resilient as the metal itself.

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Household Debt Rises to $17.69 Trillion

Advisor Perspectives

Household debt rose by $184 billion (1.09%) to $17.69 trillion in Q1 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by mortgage and auto loan balances. Meanwhile, credit card balances declined, as is typical for the first quarter.

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MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2024

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.94 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

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Adviser links: objectives and aspirations

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Naomi Win about why we hate uncertainty so much. (standarddeviationspod.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Emily Koochel about combining technology and financial psychology. (podcasts.apple.com) The biz What Goldman Sachs ($GS) hopes to achieve in the RIA custody business. (barrons.com) Why Focus decided to merge Buckingham Strategic Wealth and The Colony Group.

Math 228
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Preparing for Succession

Wealth Management

Too many RIAs fail to clear a path for junior advisors to take over, threatening the future viability of the business. A panel of practice management consultants at the Wealth Management Edge conference discussed why that’s a mistake and what advisors can do to change it.

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Three Inside Up Candlestick Pattern – Trading Ideas And More

Trade Brains

Three Inside Up Candlestick Pattern: In the world of technical analysis, candlestick patterns serve as invaluable tools for traders, offering insights into market sentiment and potential price movements. Among the myriad of patterns, the Three Inside Up stands out for its reliability and significance. In this article, we will delve into the Three Inside Up candlestick pattern, exploring its formation, Psychology, and trading ideas with its example.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Down 0.3% in April

Advisor Perspectives

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in April were up 0.4% and up 3.04% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.3% MoM and down 0.31% year-over-year.

Retail 102
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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 35.0% YoY; Most Home For Sale Since August 2020

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.4% YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.0% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

Sales 110
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Friday links: a wide range of outcomes

Abnormal Returns

Markets Utility stocks are having a moment. (barrons.com) Bonds seem to have bottomed. (allstarcharts.com) Strategy Big round numbers don't matter unless you hold on. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) There are two approaches to investing. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) It's easy to forget the pain of volatility. (wggtb.substack.com) Venture capital Figma shareholders are getting an opportunity to sell stock, post-Adobe deal.

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The AI Assembly at Wealth Management EDGE: The Future of AI

Wealth Management

The impact that artificial intelligence will have on wealth management drew a large crowd at the Wealth Management EDGE conference at the Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla.

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[cdata[ Ensuring a Secure Retirement: Strategies to Supplement Social Security ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ Crafting wise financial plans for retirement is imperative for ensuring comfortability in your golden years. These plans are particularly crucial if you anticipate leaning heavily on Social Security benefits and lack considerable retirement savings to fall back on. Luckily, there are strategies you can follow to live frugally and maximize your current resources, paving the way for your.