Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Spoiler alert, 2026 and 2027 will have scary headlines and big market down days as well. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Think about that the next time you see some red on the screen and all the commentators on TV all worked up over the latest worry.

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Carson Wealth

MAY 12, 2025

The market is still pricing in at least three cuts in 2025 and another two in the first half of 2026. In other words, markets are expecting policy to stay tight in the near term, but an economic slowdown later in the year (and into 2026) may push the Fed to cut more rapidly. That would be a relatively quick pace of cuts of about 1.5%-points

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Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

We also calculated 1-year/1-year forward inflation expectations, which is inflation expected in the second year from now (roughly 2026). A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. 1-year ahead inflation expectations have moved up to 2.8%, the highest since March 2023.

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Carson Wealth

APRIL 28, 2025

At the end of 2025, the forward 12-month EPS will actually be the 2026 EPS estimate, and so it makes sense to focus on that instead of 2025 EPS (the assumption is that markets are forward looking). Right now, the 2026 EPS level is at $302/share (about 2% below where it started the year, at $309/share). Its currently around 5,400.)

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Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

This will be needed simply to avoid tax increases on January 1st, 2026, when several provisions of the 2017 tax cuts sunset. Our overall takeaway is to make some adjustments to portfolio positioning to help mitigate risk from tariffs, but to maintain our equity overweight.

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Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 3, 2024

Unless these tax cuts are pro-actively renewed, Americans will see their taxes go up starting in 2026. Keep in mind that 2026 is a mid-term election year, and that’s going to crystallize Congress’s focus on getting something done. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

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Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 21, 2024

The prospect of higher taxes across the board in 2026, and lower corresponding household spending, should help clarify the sense of purpose of members of Congress. trillion over the next 10 years (2026-2035). A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 31, 2025

But if there is an effort to overstep or to appoint a loyal and partisan Fed chair when Jerome Powell (himself a Trump appointee) steps down in May 2026, markets will respond. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. There are mechanisms that help maintain Fed independence.

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