Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 2, 2022

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through September 30th. Lumber was at $425 per 1000 board feet on Friday. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 34% from $643 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although peaked much earlier this year.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2022

Great interactive from the Washington Post showing the past 50 years. During that time, millions of people have moved into Hurricane alley — the route that seasonal storms frequently take from the Caribbean up the coast. Click to see the time lapse. Source: Washington Post. The post Populations in Riskier Geographies appeared first on The Big Picture.

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The Reformed Broker

OCTOBER 2, 2022

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 2, 2022

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Goldman Sees US House Prices Falling 5% to 10% • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued its Deceleration" to 15.8% year-over-year increase in July • Inflation Adjusted House Prices Declined Further in July • New Home Sales Increased in August; Completed Inventory Increased • Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow • New Home Sales and Cancellations: Net vs Gross Sales This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provid

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Clients

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 2, 2022

Top clicks this week You need to keep your head to get to the other side of the bear market intact. (thereformedbroker.com) Everything sucks. Five things that could go right. (ramp.beehiiv.com) The bear case is obvious. What's the bull case? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Bear markets are where wealth is built. (thereformedbroker.com) Don't fight the last war: this isn't 2008.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 2, 2022

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of October 2, 2022 Monday: • At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 52.2, down from 52.8 in August. • Also, at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 1 and DOW futures are up 42 (fair value).

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Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 2, 2022

Markets Every bear market is different. (humbledollar.com) Tencent is no longer China's most valuable company. (marginalrevolution.com) Financial influencers are feeling the pain of the bear market. (markets.businessinsider.com) Strategy Barry Ritholtz, "Picking tops and bottoms is an art when you do it for fun, but a fool’s errand if you run money professionally.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2022

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • ‘It Was All a Hoax’ : This 27-year-old Venezuelan man was one of 50 migrants taken to Martha’s Vineyard from San Antonio, Texas, under the direction of Florida governor Ron DeSantis. The Republican is currently facing multiple lawsuits claiming he lured the migrants to Martha’s Vineyard under false pretenses and violated Florida law by using state funds to transport them as a means of protesting President

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