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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Vehicle sales grew modestly.

Economics 162
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Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025

Calculated Risk

For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged. -- Monday, June 16th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 179
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Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025

Calculated Risk

For manufacturing, the February Industrial Production report and the March NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, March 17th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released. 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a 0.7%

Retail 191
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Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024

Calculated Risk

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, January 13th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, January 14th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9%

Retail 162
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Schedule for Week of November 17, 2024

Calculated Risk

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, the November Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week. -- Monday, November 18th -- 10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. down from 10.3.

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Comments on July Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 28,000, combined. Manufacturing added 30 thousand jobs and is now 41 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: July Employment Report: 528 thousand Jobs, 3.5% million jobs.

Numbers 364
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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246