Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined. Manufacturing added 32 thousand jobs and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

Retail 354

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 354

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JANUARY 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. Manufacturing added 8 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: December Employment Report: 223 thousand Jobs, 3.5% million jobs.

Retail 363

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. Manufacturing added 19 thousand jobs and is now 214 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. With revisions: The 4.81 million jobs. million, was little changed in January.

Numbers 363

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 11 thousand jobs and is now 206 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: April Employment Report: 253 thousand Jobs, 3.4%

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

Calculated Risk

APRIL 9, 2025

An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. city average). The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. city average). The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 1 thousand and is now 173 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

Other key indicators include the October Trade Deficit, the November ISM manufacturing index and November vehicle sales. -- Monday, December 2nd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 7 thousand jobs and is now 204 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 21 thousand jobs in June.

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. While the manufacturing sector (which makes up 'only' 8% of the U.S.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. Manufacturing added 14 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 88 thousand jobs in November. million jobs.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 7 thousand and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: September Employment Report: 254 thousand Jobs, 4.1% YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, September 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0,

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 181 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 185 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Manufacturing employment was unchanged and is now 176 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. Manufacturing lost 4 thousand jobs and is now 198 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The participation rate increased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%.

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 17 thousand jobs and is now 226 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8%

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 16 thousand jobs and is now 212 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: August Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.8%

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 24 thousand and is now 147 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August. Manufacturing contacts in several Districts also noted that supply chain delays improved, and that they were better able to meet existing orders. One sector where supply did not become more available was single-family housing.

Manufacturing 298

Manufacturing Transportation Retail Sales 298

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 35 thousand jobs and is now 175 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 19 thousand jobs in October.

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8,

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 262

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 28 thousand jobs and is now 200 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November.

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 6 thousand jobs and is now 201 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2023

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, January 16th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Retail 264

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 264

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November.

Retail 242

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 242

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2023

The key reports this week are March Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. -- Monday, April 17th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Tuesday, April 18th -- 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March.

Manufacturing 257

Manufacturing Sales Banking Numbers 257

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2022

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined. Manufacturing added 22 thousand jobs and is now 163 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. And the employment-population ratio was unchanged. million in September.

Education 246

Education Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

(marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. npr.org) Human population may soon peak.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 279

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. Manufacturing lost 1 thousand jobs and is now 198 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 72 thousand jobs in March. million jobs.

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 4, 2023

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly below expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 49,000, combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 2 thousand jobs and is now 200 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 17 thousand jobs in July.

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

If you’re well above this number, you can be fairly sure job growth is positive. If you’re at this number, like right now (and also seeing downward momentum), we can’t be sure the economy is actually creating any net jobs. The tariff mess in April led some forecasters to predict an economic crash as early as this summer.

Economics 69

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 69

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2024

For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, July 15th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0,

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 8 thousand and is now 170 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211