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2024 Forecasting Follies

The Better Letter

That’s because, at best , complex systems – from the weather to the markets – allow only for probabilistic forecasts with very significant margins for error and often seemingly outlandish and hugely divergent potential outcomes. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economic Strategist blew her call , too.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

New York Times Magazine ) • Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns : A small band of quants is shining a light into the shadowy world of unlisted assets. Washington Post ) but see Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 : The world is complex, and it is rarely (if ever) one causal factor driving economic events.

Food 162
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Transcript: Christine Phillpotts, Ariel Investments

The Big Picture

We’ll get to where you work at JP Morgan, but economics bachelor’s from Columbia MBA from Harvard. So I decided to become an economics major and a psychology minor. So the intersection of psychology and economics became really interesting. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting.

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The Better Letter: So What?!

The Better Letter

For math, she teaches the advanced class — the top students in the school. The class had a party recently as a reward for winning a national math competition. – to stay in and play math games at the party instead of more traditionally “fun” activities, inside or out. It is a very bright group.

Math 52
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From Rocket Ship to Roller Coaster

Investing Caffeine

Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Source: Calafia Beach Pundit. This notion rings especially true when it comes to finance and investing. interest rates.

Math 52
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Transcript: Antti Ilmanen

The Big Picture

And when I was studying in university economics, I did not really get the passion. The passion came when I went to invest the country’s foreign exchange reserves there and it was very much global government bond markets. My really first stroke of luck, I think, was getting that job. RITHOLTZ: Right. That makes a lot of sense.

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The importance of evaluating social factors in mortgage bond analysis

Brown Advisory

The New Normal It is difficult for investors and individuals alike not to have been directly impacted by the rapid rise in inflation in 2021 and 2022, the succeeding interest rate hikes by global central banks and the ensuing effects these economic events have had on financial markets, including the mortgage market.