Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. This was in sharp contrast to all the recession calls you saw in 2022 and 2023, including signals from other popular leading economic indicators.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 52

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

RITHOLTZ: Mark your calendars for 2026. Tell us a little bit about what you do on Twitter and how was it getting that through legal and compliance? RIEDER: Well, first of all, anything I tweet goes through legal and compliance before it gets out there, first part. RIEDER: Let’s see. I use immense amount of data and analysis.

Economy 147

Economy Numbers Marketing Marketing 147

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 23, 2024

It upped its view of economic growth and said things looked pretty good on the economic front. Neither did the Fed push the lost two rate cuts out to 2026. They estimated two rate cuts in 2026 in their September dot plot and stuck to that in their latest update. 2026: Up from 2.0% The S&P 500 is only 3.6%

Marketing 72

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 72

Carson Wealth

MARCH 24, 2025

This was not unexpected, but all eyes were on the Feds dot plot (expected path of interest rates) and the rest of its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Even as Fed members increase the 2025 core PCE projection to 2.8%, they left the projection for 2026 at 2.2% The last update was in December and was viewed hawkish.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 92

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Spoiler alert, 2026 and 2027 will have scary headlines and big market down days as well. Compliance Case # 7667418.1_022425_C The post Market Commentary: Seeing the Big Picture – Stocks Still Making New Highs and Household Balance Sheets Are Healthy appeared first on Carson Wealth.

Marketing 85

Marketing Marketing Economy Planning 85

Carson Wealth

MAY 12, 2025

The market is still pricing in at least three cuts in 2025 and another two in the first half of 2026. In other words, markets are expecting policy to stay tight in the near term, but an economic slowdown later in the year (and into 2026) may push the Fed to cut more rapidly. points over eight meetings.

Marketing 69

Marketing Marketing Economy Investments 69

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

The tariff policy of the Trump administration should be viewed as an economic and market risk, with some potential negative impact on inflation, interest rates, the dollar (stronger), and the path of rate cuts. This is historically what happened as economic expansions wore on. The primary deficit rose to about 6.5% of GDP in 2015.

Marketing 69

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economy 69