In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Friday, January 05, 2024

December Employment Report: 216 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2024 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 45,000, from +150,000 to +105,000, and the change for November was revised down by 26,000, from +199,000 to +173,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 71,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 216 thousand in December.  Private payrolls increased by 164 thousand, and public payrolls increased 52 thousand.

Payrolls for October and November were revised down 71 thousand, combined.

Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In December, the year-over-year change was 2.70 million jobs.  Employment was up solidly year-over-year but has slowed closer to more normal levels of job growth recently.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.5% in December, from 62.8% in November. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.1% from 60.4% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% in December from 3.7% in November.

This was above consensus expectations; however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 71,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...