Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 25, 2024

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of February 25, 2024 Monday: • At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home sales increased to 675 thousand SAAR, up from 646 thousand in December. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.

Sales 95

Sales Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 95

Calculated Risk

MARCH 4, 2024

This morning, the BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for February. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 85

Sales 85

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2023

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.1% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1 retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 109

Retail Sales Food 109

Calculated Risk

MARCH 25, 2024

Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking a Steady Course with Potential Upside (pay content). However, the forecasted steady climb in inventory should put sales in good stead to rise above 16-million-unit annualized rates for most of the remainder of 2024. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for March (Red).

Sales 108

Sales 108

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2024

All Day Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.9 It was all but certain that the new week/month would bring a change to that sideways trend, but the reality [w]as immediate and abrupt. [ 30 year fixed 7.05% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for February. •

Sales 73

Sales 73

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2024

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rose 1.6% in February Pending home sales in January grew 1.6% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 All four U.S. in February. in February.

Sales 114

Sales 114

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

Light-Vehicle Sales to Weaken Again in December; Inventory Set to Rise (pay content). This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for December (Red). million SAAR, would be down 8% from last month, but up 2% from a year ago (sales weakened in the second half of 2021, due to supply chain issues).

Sales 138

Sales Marketing Marketing 138

Calculated Risk

APRIL 14, 2024

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of April 14, 2024 Monday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. The consensus is for a 0.3% The consensus is for a reading of -9.0, up from -20.9. •

Retail 67

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 67

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2024

At 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.40 The consensus is for a reading of -2.5, down from 5.2. • The consensus is for 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.00 million SAAR for February (well above consensus).

Sales 86

Sales Manufacturing 86

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2023

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.7% from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 retail and food services sales for September 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.9 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 117

Retail Sales Food 117

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Receded 4.9% in January Pending home sales in January dropped 4.9% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 74.3 All four U.S. in January. in January.

Sales 133

Sales 133

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2024

At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for February. The consensus is for 208 thousand initial claims, down from 210 thousand last week. • At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, down from 44.0 in February. • The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.

Sales 113

Sales Manufacturing Management 113

Calculated Risk

MARCH 14, 2024

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.5 retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 73

Retail Sales Food 73

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2024

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for February: Affordability Front-and-Center in March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Gain (pay site). Thanks to that boost, total deliveries in March increased year-over-year despite a decline in sales of all pickups, SUVs, vans, midsize cars and luxury-priced cars.

Sales 91

Sales Marketing Marketing 91

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 17, 2024

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed a 0.6% rise in headline sales compared to November, highlighting a second straight month of increased consumer spending. Core sales (ex Autos) also beat expectations by increasing 0.4% The latest figure was higher than the anticipated 0.4% monthly growth.

Retail 111

Retail Sales 111

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 22, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales, Inventory Continue Upward Climb in February (pay content). This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for February (Red). Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, far behind housing. From WardsAuto: U.S. from a year ago.

Sales 140

Sales Marketing Marketing 140

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 14, 2022

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 145

Retail Sales Food 145

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for August today. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 136

Sales Marketing Marketing 136

Calculated Risk

MARCH 24, 2024

The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales. For example, last week, for February 2024, the NAR reported sales of 4.38 million SAAR, and Tom Lawler had estimated they would report sales of 4.40 million (almost exact). million SAAR.

Sales 96

Sales 96

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2024

Earlier the BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December. The BEA estimates sales of 15.83 from the November sales rate, and up 16.8% The first graph shows annual sales since 1976. Sales in 2020 were impacted by the pandemic, and then sales rebounded slightly in 2021. from December 2022.

Sales 73

Sales 73

Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 25, 2024

The February release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000 units, falling short of the 675,000 forecast. New home sales were down 0.3% month-over-month from a revised rate of 664,000 in January and are up 5.9% from one year ago.

Sales 69

Sales 69

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 0.6 retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 70

Retail Sales Food 70

Advisor Perspectives

OCTOBER 26, 2023

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. Despite the growth, pending home sales remain low as the latest index reading is the third lowest in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 11.0% The index inched up 1.1% in September to 72.6,

Sales 116

Sales 116

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

Many times, though, they’ll tell me they’re really “bad at sales” or “bad at closing.” If it happens often, it can paralyze you from asking for the sale with confidence — and prospects notice the lack of confidence. You can’t stop needing a sale, but you can stop projecting that need by focusing on what prospects need.

Sales 88

Sales Commission Financial Advisor Insurance 88

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

All day, Light vehicle sales for February. Sales were at 15.0 The consensus is for sales of 15.5 The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for February). • million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). million SAAR.

Sales 73

Sales Manufacturing 73

Calculated Risk

MARCH 21, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.3% year-over-year compared to February 2023.

Sales 110

Sales 110

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2023

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for September: September U.S. Light-Vehicles Sales Bounce Back Despite Gloomy Conditions (pay site). Sales losses will be more strongly felt in October as production cuts mount. However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 134

Sales Marketing Marketing 134

Calculated Risk

MARCH 24, 2024

At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. Weekend: • Schedule for Week of March 24, 2024 Monday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data. • The consensus is for 673 thousand SAAR, up from 661 thousand in January.

Sales 62

Sales Marketing Marketing 62

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release March existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, April 18th at 10:00AM ET. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.23

Sales 57

Sales Marketing Marketing 57

Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 21, 2024

Existing home sales jumped to their highest level in a year in February. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 9.5% Existing home sales are down 3.3% from January to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million units. compared to one year ago.

Sales 75

Sales 75

Calculated Risk

MARCH 25, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales at 662,000 Annual Rate in February Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand. The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Sales 113

Sales 113

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Climbed 8.3% in December Pending home sales in December elevated 8.3% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 77.3 in December. from last month to 62.3,

Sales 108

Sales 108

Advisor Perspectives

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.8% However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 1.1% and up 0.65% year-over-year. MoM and down 2.38% year-over-year.

Retail 104

Retail Sales 104

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for May this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 15.05 from the April sales rate, and up 19.6% This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red). However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues. from May 2022.

Sales 144

Sales Marketing Marketing 144

Advisor Perspectives

DECEMBER 28, 2023

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. Pending home sales were expected to increase 1.0% The index was flat in November at 71.6, keeping the index at its lowest level since the NAR began tracking data in 2001. last month.

Sales 89

Sales 89

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 5, 2024

The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward 45 years, it is now down 38.5% from that peak.

Sales 59

Sales 59

Calculated Risk

APRIL 24, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales to Post Strong Growth; Inventory to Fall from March (pay content). million units, sales volume is forecast to rise a robust 13% year-over-year in Q2. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for April (Red). From WardsAuto: April U.S. The Wards forecast of 15.5 from a year ago.

Sales 98

Sales Marketing Marketing 98