Sat.Oct 15, 2022 - Fri.Oct 21, 2022

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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

At the beginning of each quarter, I prepare a short but in-depth conference call for RWM clients. The team & I put together the most revealing and informative slides. In that half hour, I blow through ~40 slides that capture and explain what is going on. About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This is atypical. The reason we emphasized real estate this Q is that housing is very often where we see FOMC policy having its most immediate effect.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Hey guys, didn’t get a chance to do any writing this week but we did two really good shows on the YouTube / podcast front I wanted to make sure you don’t miss… And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Research links: cutting drawdowns

Abnormal Returns

Research Are index funds to blame for the lack of investment in oil and gas production? (ft.com) On the relationship between asset growth and lottery stock status. (alphaarchitect.com) The problem with growth: persistence is fleeting. (mailchi.mp) Why companies see a jump in their stock price when they hire a black CEO. (wapo.st) Is democracy good for the stock market?

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The 9 ‘Best’ Financial Advisor Conferences (For Scaling Up) In 2023

Nerd's Eye View

After more than 2 years of ongoing disruptions, from the original COVID-19 outbreak, to wave after wave of variants as the pandemic rolled on, 2022 proved to be the year that advisor conferences were “back”, as events ceased canceling or rescheduling in response to new variants and powered forward… often with virtual options for those who still felt uncomfortable traveling, but with most events actually reaching or even exceeding their pre-pandemic highs as advisors showed that

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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AI Steve Jobs interviewed by AI Joe Rogan

The Big Picture

This is pretty mind-blowing: a podcast that is entirely generated by artificial intelligence where Joe Rogan interviews Steve Jobs. One of the most important women in Apple’s history never worked for Apple Margot Comstock took her winnings from a TV game show and bought a computer. It led to a magazine, which turned into a major hub for the nascent community of developers and fans of one of the most important computers in history.

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Friday links: generative AI

Abnormal Returns

Finance Per AngelList, the Q3 drop in venture activity was substantial. (angellist.com) Questions keep getting raised about TikTok's data practices. (forbes.com) Fidelity is not abandoning crypto. (bloomberg.com) InstaCart has paused its IPO. (axios.com) Global Why isn't Japan raising rates? (nytimes.com) The backlog of container ships off the coast of Southern California is effectively gone.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 97: Talking Clients Down From Making Politically Motivated Portfolio Changes

Nerd's Eye View

In recent years, politically charged topics have become the forefront of news and media, and with the rise of access to digitally distributed media, it has become commonplace for clients to have concerns about the possible impact of political events on their portfolios. These concerns have compelled many clients to reach out to their advisors, urging them to make changes in response to the political environment.

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Global Real Estate Bubble Index

The Big Picture

Which cities have the greatest housing bubble risk? That is the basis of this very interesting graphic from UBS. The full PDF is well worth your time to peruse through – you can find it here: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Source : UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2022. The post Global Real Estate Bubble Index appeared first on The Big Picture.

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The Best Places to Invest Cash Right Now (Video)

Pragmatic Capitalism

In this new episode of Three Minute Money I discuss some of the best options for investing cash right now.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Thursday links: community not just creators

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Diversifiers don't always work. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Another example of why running money is difficult. (ft.com) Crypto The vast majority of El Salvador thinks its Bitcoin experiment was a mistake. (barrons.com) IPOs Aside from Airbnb ($ABNB), gig economy stocks have been a disaster. (oversharing.substack.com) Newly public real estate startups have been a disaster as well.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Oct 22-23)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that Congress appears poised to pass a series of changes affecting retirement planning, dubbed “SECURE ACT 2.0”, by the end of the year. Provisions in the proposed legislation include gradually increasing the age for RMDs from 72 to 75, allowing extra ‘catch-up’ contributions to workplace retirement plans, and permitting companies to ma

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What’s Ailing Tesla’s Stock?

The Big Picture

US equity markets are off about 25% YTD; Tech-heavy Nasdaq is off 32%; But the poster child for the past few years has been Tesla (TSLA), which is down 38.5% YTD and is 46.9% off of its 2021 highs. From a fundamental perspective, Tesla is doing quite well: In the third quarter, Tesla sold a record 343,000 vehicles. They also have an advantage over traditional automakers: An ability to quickly reprogram the firmware of chips.

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The Only Question Now That Matters

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ?Earnings Season – It has begun. ?Midterms – “The S&P 500 has historically posted strong returns following a Midterm election on average.” ?

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Longform links: concentrated bets

Abnormal Returns

Business Why Mark Cuban teamed up with Alex Oshmyansky to try to disrupt the pharmaceutical industry. (dmagazine.com) Apartment property management companies are increasingly using YieldStar software to set rents. (propublica.org) How TikTok came to rule the Internet. (wapo.st) How the TMZ model works. (trungphan.substack.com) Society Like it or not, West Virginia's future is in being able to move beyond coal.

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How To Register Your RIA: State Vs SEC Registration And When Notice Filing Is Required

Nerd's Eye View

In the United States, Registered Investment Advisers (RIAs) are required to register in one of 2 ways: with the Federal government (namely the SEC) or with one or more state securities regulatory agencies. While SEC-registered RIAs are governed by the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (and its associated regulations), state-registered RIAs are subject to the individual rules of the states (which have their own securities laws and regulations) where they are registered.

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Sussing Out Probabilities

The Big Picture

Why are markets rallying and/or falling every other day? They make gains only to give them back, or they sell off hard only to subsequently regain the losses. I suspect it is because the dispersion of likely future outcomes is so unusually wide. Meaning, what investors imagine as the most likely outcomes are all over the map. Perhaps a weather analogy may help explain : Since its October, let’s imagine a typical weather report: 80% chance of sunshine, with a slight chance of showers overni

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Clips From Today’s Closing Bell

The Reformed Broker

IBM beats on earnings and revenue, hikes full-year revenue outlook from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week How millionaires invest. (alphaarchitect.com) The all-weather portfolio has not fared well in 2022. (blog.validea.com) Jason Zweig, "Try to watch a tree growing, and you see nothing; yet it is growing all the same. It can send out new branches and green foliage for several human lifetimes. Prune it back properly, and you make it stronger.

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#FA Success 303: Pivoting From ‘Robo’ Investment Management To Financial Planning In South Africa, With Louis van der Merwe

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 303rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Louis van der Merwe. Louis is the Director of WealthUp, an independent advice practice based in Cape Town, South Africa, that oversees the U.S. equivalent of nearly $60 million in assets under management for 115 client households. What's unique about Louis, though, is how he and his partner (in anticipation of a shift in the financial advisory industry to more automated client services nea

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MiB: Tom Rampulla, Vanguard’s Financial Advisor Services Director

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Thomas Rampulla, managing director of Vanguard’s Financial Advisor Services. The division provides investments, services, education and research to more than 1,000 financial advisory firms representing more than $3 trillion in assets. Rampulla has held a variety of management positions at Vanguard since he joined in 1988.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Nike, Domino’s, SL Green & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Personal finance links: possibilities vs. goals

Abnormal Returns

Investing A bear market provides different opportunities for different generations. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why now is a great time to get started investing. (dariusforoux.com) College More states are requiring high school seniors to complete the FASFA application. (nytimes.com) Student loan debt forgiveness is now open to applications. (npr.org) Pets Don't underestimate the costs of taking care of a dog.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 34% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 15, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 34% above one year ago.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Bean Box coffee, grab a seat by the lake, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin Culture: Crypto’s first token created a culture and then a monster. ( CoinDesk ). • The computer errors from outer space : The Earth is subjected to a hail of subatomic particles from the Sun and beyond our solar system which could be the cause of glitches that afflict our phones and computers.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Barclays says buy restaurant stocks here from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Podcast links: IP theft

Abnormal Returns

The biz How is the Spotify ($SPOT) exclusive podcast model working? (simonowens.substack.com) Claims of IP theft in podcasting are nothing new. (theguardian.com) Business Tim Ferriss talks with Aryeh Bourkoff, Chairman and CEO of LionTree, an independent investment and merchant bank. (tim.blog) Howard Lindzon talks with Dave Finocchio founder of Bleacher Report and co-founder of The Cool Down.

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Housing October 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased, New High for 2022

Calculated Risk

Active inventory increased again, hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining at this time of year ): 2022: +5.0K 2021: -2.4K 2020: -0.9K 2019: -10.9K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 135% since then. Altos reports inventory is up 33.7% year-over-year.

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • The Problem with Pulling Out of China : Many U.S. and other nations’ companies are thinking about transferring elsewhere. Easier said than done. Investors could be collateral damage. ( CIO ). • US Chip Sanctions ‘Kneecap’ China’s Tech Industry : The toughest export restrictions yet cut off AI hardware and chip-making tools crucial to China’s commercial and military ambitions. ( Wired ) see also Xi Jinping, forever : China has shackled itself to…this o

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