Sat.Dec 17, 2022 - Fri.Dec 23, 2022

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How “Probability Of Success” Differs Between One-Time And Ongoing Financial Plans

Nerd's Eye View

Monte Carlo simulations have become the dominant method for conducting financial planning analyses for clients and are a feature of most comprehensive financial planning software programs. By distilling hundreds of pieces of information into a single number that purports to show the percentage chance that a portfolio will not be depleted over the course of a client’s life, advisors often use this data point as the centerpiece when they present a financial plan.

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MiB: Robert Koenigsberger, Gramercy Funds Management

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Robert Koenigsberger , the managing partner and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management. A dedicated emerging markets investment manager, Gramercy Funds Management — which Koenigsberger founded in 1998 — now has more than $5 billion dollars in assets under management. We discuss how he first found his way into Emerging Markets Debt back in the 1980s, working in a small EM boutique.

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Sunday links: a power-law world

Abnormal Returns

Markets You can safely ignore all the year-end stock market forecasts. (nytimes.com) It's way too easy to kid yourself you saw what was coming down the pike. (wsj.com) Sam Ro, "The thing about certain risks is that the become less of a problem for markets the more market participants talk about them." (tker.co) Finance Cryptocurrency is the Segway of finance, heavily hyped and niche-only.

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What Company Will Be the Second to Lose $1 Trillion in Market Cap?

Mish Talk

Amazon AMZN Market Cap. Amazon is down from a peak of $1.88 trillion to $854.8 billion making it the first company to lose over $1 trillion in market cap. Who's next? Tesla TSLA Market Cap. Tesla has lost about $727 billion in market cap but it likely will not be next. Facebook META Market Cap. This is an impressive effort by Meta, down $759 billion in market cap from its peak.

Marketing 210
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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#FA Success Ep 312: Resetting Your Work/Life Balance By Getting Paid For Expertise Instead Of (Just) Effort, With Emily Rassam

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 312th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Emily Rassam. Emily is the Senior Financial Planner for Archer Investment Management, a virtual Independent RIA based in Austin, Texas, that oversees $170 million of assets under management for nearly 170 families. What's unique about Emily, though, is how after struggling for years at a position where responsibilities and pressure kept building (and kept deterring her from being present i

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Longform links: withstanding financial stress

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Wealth, Cost and Price in American Higher Education: A Brief History" by Bruce A. Kimball and Sarah M. Iler. (insidehighered.com) A Q&A with Jess Grose author of "Screaming on the Inside: The Unsustainability of American Motherhood." (annehelen.substack.com) Russia How Putin misjudged the war in Ukraine. (nytimes.com) Russia's mobilization was characterized by poor training an inadequate gear.

Education 229
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Two Associates of FTX Founder SBF Plead Guilty to Criminal Charges

Mish Talk

Noose Tightens Around Sam Bankman-Fried The Rats Rat on SBF The Wall Street Journal reports Caroline Ellison, Associate of FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried, Pleads Guilty to Criminal Charges Caroline Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm tied to FTX, and Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Dec 24-25)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that Congress appears poised to pass “SECURE Act 2.0”, a series of measures that will have significant impacts on the world of retirement planning. From gradually raising the RMD age to 75 to expanding opportunities to make Roth-style contributions, to increasing the annual limit for Qualified Charitable Distributions, this legislation will likely

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Powell Should Declare Victory & Go Home

The Big Picture

Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman & CIO and “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, discusses the Fed’s rate hikes and market reaction. Powell Should Declare Victory: Ritholtz. Source: Bloomberg , December 20th, 2022. The post Powell Should Declare Victory & Go Home appeared first on The Big Picture.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Research links: phase changes

Abnormal Returns

Managed futures Why trend following works during changing macroeconomic environments. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Managed futures work best during periods of market transition. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) Research What accounts for big stock price jumps? (papers.ssrn.com) Why 1/N diversification is hard to beat. (papers.ssrn.com) Diseconomies of scale in asset management are real.

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The Top in the US Dollar Is In. Where to From Here?

Mish Talk

US dollar index monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.com annotations by Mish. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly lifted its ceiling on 10-year government bonds from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. Japan 10-year bond yield courtesy of Trading Economics. The BOJ lifted the ceiling to stop an unwelcome slide in the yen. In response, bond yields also jumped in the US.

Banking 191
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What Are Eurodollars and Why do they Matter? (Video)

Pragmatic Capitalism

Here’s a new edition of 3 Minute Macro on the topic of Eurodollars.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Why Hot Wheels are one of the most inflation-proof toys in American history : Hot Wheels are a retail oddity. They remain one of the most affordable toys in the country at a time when inflation is chipping away at savings accounts and compounding credit card debt for many Americans. ( NPR ). • The Fed Is Making a Mistake—and the Stock Market Will Pay the Price : The central bank raised interest rates by half a point and promised to hold rates higher for

Retail 144
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Podcast links: the future of social media

Abnormal Returns

Best of lists The best finance podcasts of 2022 including 'Masters in Business.' (realreturns.blog) Why 'The Compound & Friends' was the best podcast of the year. (bigtechnology.com) The best podcasts of 2022 including 'Stolen: Surviving St. Michael’s. (newyorker.com) Ten of the best podcasts of 2022 including 'Things Fell Apart' by John Ronson.

Media 210
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Understanding Long Term Moves in Gold, What's Going On?

Mish Talk

8Chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish. A long-term chart suggests the real driver for gold is not inflation, not the dollar, not conspiracies, not China, and not oil, but rather faith in central banks. Timeline Synopsis Nixon closed the gold redemption window on August 15, 1971. The price of gold was $35 an ounce. Faith in the dollar and central banks collapsed.

Banking 187
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Personal Income increased 0.4% in November; Spending increased 0.1%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).

Food 145
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An Incredible Chart of the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Think back to 2010. After you got done signing up for some new app called Instagram and finished 17 shows and movies about vampires, maybe you finished reading The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo trilogy. Once all that pop culture consumption was done, you would have needed some non-fiction to keep up with the intellectual crowd so you moved on to The Big Short by Michael Lewis.

Marketing 138
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Friday links: bubbled up anger

Abnormal Returns

Content Some Substack newsletters that some prominent writers recommend including 'Doomberg.' (petition.substack.com) Blair duQuesnay's favorite female-created financial content from 2022. (blairbellecurve.com) What some Morningstar ($MORN) analysts recommend from 2022 including “The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All” by Mary Childs.

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Tesla is Battered, Down 64% From the Top, Is the Bottom In?

Mish Talk

Tesla TSLA weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. Tesla bounced off weekly support at the 220 level then quickly crashed strong support at the 180 level with nary a bounce. Next support is the 140 level, then 100, then 60, then 23. Tesla Monthly Support Levels. Tesla TSLA monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. At the monthly level, things look grim.

Sales 176
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Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sales to Weaken Again in December"

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Weaken Again in December; Inventory Set to Rise (pay content). Brief excerpt: If Winter Storm Elliott is as bad as predicted, it will create another headwind to December deliveries on top of inventory-related issues, fear of recession and rising prices and interest rates. Conversely, because the bad weather is hitting broad swaths of the U.S. at a time when most vehicle assembly plants will be closed anyway for the holiday season, production losses sho

Sales 139
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What’s Going to Happen in the Stock Market Next Year?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I know no one can predict the future…yada, yada, yada, but just between us – what’s going to happen with the stock market next year? I’m not sure I can handle another year like 2022. Life would be a lot easier if I knew the answer to this question. I guess the good news is there really isn’t much connective tissue from one year to the next in terms of one year’s price action impacting the next y.

Marketing 136
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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week What is the bond market saying about the economy right now? (awealthofcommonsense.com) What is going to happen to home prices if mortgage rates stay above 6%? (awealthofcommonsense.com) This is the best present to yourself and others. (allaboutyourbenjamins.com) What Oaktree Capital types are reading including "How the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We’re Going" by Vaclav Smil.

Economy 157
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How Did Covid Impact the Minimum Wage Someone Would Accept for a Job?

Mish Talk

Reservation wage data from the New York Fed. The Reservation Wage is the minimum wage a person working would accept for switching jobs or a non-working person would accept for taking a job. Please consider the New York Fed report SCE Labor Market Survey Shows Average Reservation Wage Continues Upward Trend The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2022 SCE Labor Market Survey shows a rise in the average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—t

Food 130
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Housing December 19th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.5% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Active inventory decreased last week. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -13.5K 2021: -13.1K 2020: -14.4K 2019: -18.1K Altos reports inventory is down 2.5% week-over-week and down 9.6% from the peak on October 28th. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

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Well-exercised writers are better writers

Investment Writing

Have you resolved to exercise more? With that in mind, I’ve updated this list of free and low-cost online exercise classes that I originally created during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. I am grateful to my writer friends who suggested these resources to me. My current exercise favorites. My go-to website for low-impact cardio exercise is Team Body Project.

Investing 119
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Wednesday links: the sea change

Abnormal Returns

Markets Four things that mattered for portfolios in 2022. (morningstar.com) Gasoline prices are ending 2022 below where they were a year ago. (compoundadvisors.com) Media stocks have had a miserable year. (on.ft.com) Companies Whatever the explanation, Tesla ($TSLA) shorts have cashed in this year. (wsj.com) Amazon's ($AMZN) Fresh store push has stalled out.

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As Interest Rates Rise, Shopping Centers Look More Attractive to Investors

Wealth Management

With property fundamentals in their best shape in quite some time and attractive cap rates, some investors are looking to put their money into shopping and power centers.

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November"

Calculated Risk

Note: This is as of November 30th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 350,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.