A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 12, 2023
Here is a headline about what happens after a bull market: And here is a headline about what happens after a bear market: Both of these pieces were written by the Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig. The bull market piece about ARK came out a little more than a year ago not long after the fund had seen spectacular returns. The bear market piece about covered calls came out this past week after that strategy outperfo.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 16, 2023
Do you want to continue working from home? Is it past time to return to the office? How much collaboration can you do remotely? How much screen time are you wasting in the office? This has become a contentious debate between senior management at large companies and their staffers; it is especially true for younger employees. As always, there are much broader factors driving this issue than what appears on the surface.
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The Reformed Broker
FEBRUARY 11, 2023
It was a wild and wonderful week in stock-land and we covered pretty much everything that happened across all the firm’s blogs and shows. We know you can get your news and insights about the market from anywhere, so we appreciate that so many of you turn to us for all the breakdowns and write-ups. If you haven’t been reading Nick, Ben and the rest of the gang lately, you’re missing some amazing stuff.
Nerd's Eye View
FEBRUARY 15, 2023
Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) feature useful tax advantages that make them a popular savings vehicle. In addition to allowing for tax-deductible contributions, tax-free growth, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses (the so-called ‘triple tax benefit’), HSA funds can be invested and allowed to grow for the long term – which has led many people to treat their HSA as a de facto retirement account by saving and investing the funds to be used for healthcare costs
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Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
Crypto The SEC continues to push back against crypto companies. (bloomberg.com) Susquehanna Advisors Group and Citadel Securities have reported stakes in crypto-friendly bank Silvergate Capital ($SI). (theblock.co) Everyone is lining up to try to close the NAV discount for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC). (wired.com) Spotify Spotify ($SPOT) invested big in podcasting and is struggling to make it all work.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 11, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 70% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, on par with the yearly gains we saw last week.
Nerd's Eye View
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the SEC is proposing to expand the adviser custody rule beyond securities and funds to cover all assets in a client’s portfolio, including private securities, real estate, derivatives, and cryptoassets.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
Markets European natural gas prices are back down to Q4 2021 levels. (ft.com) Zero day options are growing in popularity. (marketwatch.com) Strategy Copycat investing is blind alley. (rationalwalk.com) Share buybacks aren't good or bad, they just are. (wsj.com) Fund management With other mutual funds companies adopt Vanguard's approach to ETFs? (morningstar.com) Index funds now own more Tesla ($TSLA) shares than Elon Musk.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • It’s a Richcession, Not a Recession. Most economic downturns hit lower-income Americans hardest, but this time is different. The stock market’s winners and losers will be different too. Here’s your investing playbook. ( Wall Street Journal ) • From Math Camp to Handcuffs: FTX’s Downfall Was an Arc of Brotherhood and Betrayal : Gary Wang and Sam Bankman-Fried are offering dueling accounts of the FTX fiasco and of who’s ultimately to blame. ( Bloomberg ) s
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Rates Maintain Strength in First Full Week of February U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 11. Feb. 5-11, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 57.8% (-8.7%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $150.97 (+13.4%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $87.21 (+3.6%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
As a staunch proponent of thinking and acting for the long-term as an investor, the following chart from Ben Laidler at eToro cuts deep: The average holding period for an individual stock in the U.S. is now just 10 months, down from 5 years back in the 1970s. The average mutual fund holding period is longer at two-and-a-half years but that still feels way too low for my taste.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 13, 2023
Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Tom Howard about behavioral finance vs. behavioral investing. (standarddeviationspod.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Dasarte Yarnway about the importance of diversity in financial services and how to increase it. (peterlazaroff.com) Michael Kitces and Carl Richards on why you need to be clear, upfront about your minimums.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 11, 2023
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the window, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How HBO’s creatives survived corporate chaos Authors Felix Gillette and John Koblin explain how your favorite shows kept HBO afloat. ( The Verge ) • What is ChatGPT and why does it matter? Here’s everything you need to know : This AI chatbot’s advanced conversational capabilities have created quite the buzz.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 16, 2023
The DOL reported : In the week ending February 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 194,000 , a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 196,000 to 195,000. The 4-week moving average was 189,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
I started A Wealth of Common Sense 10 years ago. Before ever hitting the publish button on my first piece, I created a list of topics and blog posts to write about. Based on that list I thought this blog might last 6 months max. I certainly didn’t think I would still be writing on a regular basis a decade later. And never in my wildest dreams did I think starting a blog would completely change my career trajectory a.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with Dwarkesh Patel of 'The Lunar Society' podcast about how to become a better podcaster. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Matt Russell and Dom Cooke talks podcasting with Eric Nuzum is the co-founder of Magnificent Noise (joincolossus.com) Private equity Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks with Dan Rose of Coatue Ventures about how the best founders operate.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 13, 2023
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • How State Street Has Used AI to Find ‘Hidden Gems’ Since 2018 : Natural-language processing used in stock picking: Bartolini Wanted something forward-looking, dynamic, he says of the ETF. ( Bloomberg ) • What Recession? Some Economists See Chances of a Growth Rebound. The Federal Reserve has raised rates rapidly.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in January. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 15, 2023
In failing to hold all those who provide financial advice to a comprehensive fiduciary standard, the SEC enacted Reg BI to enforce a “best interest” standard. Do your clients understand what that means and its implications?
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 16, 2023
Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever. (bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. (theblock.co) Companies Cory Doctorow, "In its nearly 25-year history, Google has made one and a half successful products: a once-great search engine and a pretty good Hotmail clone. Everything else it built in-house has crashed and burned.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 15, 2023
My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • All Markets Are Uncertain : The Forecasters’ Hall of Fame Has Zero Members: In any given year, someone, simply due volume of forecasts, is “right”. I have yet to see anyone who can repeatedly, accurately forecast market outcomes. What we can say, with all certainty, looking backward, is that the S and P (and virtually every other market) has inexorably risen.
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Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
Investments like real estate and other private markets can generally weather difficult market conditions better than their more liquid counterparts and, over the long run, have historically provided higher returns and lower volatility.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis , after increasing 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for foo
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for January was down 0.3% from the December's final figure of 110.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 12, 2023
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • Rudy Then and Rudy Now : None of his doofus mishaps endear him to his detractors. His toxicity levels are too high. When Giuliani was revealed as a mystery contestant on Fox’s The Masked Singer, one of the judges, Ken Jeong (Knocked Up, the Hangover movies), walked off the set in disgust.
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Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.
Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
The Mortgage Bankers Association has lowered its 2023 forecast for commercial mortgage production, predicting a 15 percent decline. Kroger and Albertsons will sell off 300 stores in order to complete their merger, reports GlobeSt.com. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 14, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market: Overview for mid-February A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s January Housing Trends Report showing new listings were down about 5% year-over-year in January. Although new listings are at a record low for January, the year-over-year decline was smaller in January than in Q4 2022.
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 13, 2023
It’s common for a mutual fund to outperform its benchmark over a short time horizon – a few years – as happened with Cathie Wood’s ARKK. But new research shows that mutual funds fail dismally when performance is measured over the long horizons that retirement-focused investors face.
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