I find that Global warming or Climate Change is the number one believed conspiracy theory.
oee
1 year ago
It is not fearmongering. The Missippi River is dry so there will be costs to shipping. The MS river is one of the world’s most important waterways. Also, you have hurrine damage in SW Florida which wiped out business and will raise insurance costs for everyone if FLA is you can find it.
Also, the crab fisheries have collpased in Alaska.
We’re in a three-peat La Nina, a very rare event. This is what’s causing the very recent, multi-year drought conditions that’s drying up the MS river et al. Now, I totally accept that MMGCC is happening and is real. But, La Nina means cooling of the equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific. I propose that science also shows us that the last three solar cycles are winding down towards a minimum. The current cycle 25 will tell us in about two years if we’ve reached / reaching the bottom or not. The scary thing is that if sunspots start to ramp back up in about 10 years, then we’re in for a nasty middle of the century. Everyone is yammering about lower birth rates. I say BS! We need the planet’s population to go into a long gradual decline.
alexwest
1 year ago
Meanwhile, the WSJ notes that China emits two-thirds more CO2 than Europe and the U.S. combined.
Proof that people don’t really care about the environment when it comes to costing them more money.
8dots
1 year ago
In Japan rates up to 3Y are negative. Between 3Y and 10Y they rise moderately. From 10Y to 40Y gravity with US is pulling it up sharply up, mostly between the 10Y and 15Y. It look like a cliff. In US all rates between 3M and 1Y are sharply up, because the German front end is up. US 10Y minus 3Y is minus (-)0.72, the max. Japan long duration might invert. The 40Y will be under the 30Y, before going under 20Y, while the front end will popup when Kuroda will be snorkeling in Sharm El Sheich, looking at the most beautiful fish in the world. It used to be an Israeli resort town until they left.
I fail to see how any ‘loss and damage” payments are going to mitigate climate damage. For example, would such payments have stopped the massive flooding that Pakistan recently suffered from? The answer is no.
Fining 1st world countries for supposed damage to the climate that are our fault doesn’t solve any underlying problems and therefore is the wrong approach.
Loss and damage payments are not intended to mitigate climate damage, but to penalize wealthy nations and pay for loss and damage suffered by poor nations. The fundamental rule applies: when you tax something you generally get less of it, and when you subsidize something, you get more it. There were be more, and bigger claims for damage from global climate change events….
correction: “penalize the taxpayers of wealthy nations” No sweat off the back of the global elites.
8dots
1 year ago
If TY move lower to 105/95, before 83/85 it means that US 10Y will move higher. Currently gravity pulled the US10Y below US1Y.
When kuroda will be out, since madam ECB cont to raise rates moderately, the spread between all those 3 central banks will shrink. All three will be able to raise rates in unison, in stepping stones. JP will be able to raise rates > the rate of inflation. It’s not a conspiracy theory or an evil secret engineering plan. Look at your charts.
M2 is down in a sucking sound since since NAFTA, it will rise. Zero rates are good for buybacks and executive perks. Moderate rates Provide money to small businesses, especially to businesses that innovate. Moderate rates protect them from the sharks. Sequoia vc invested in Sam Beckman Fried, because his promised 15%/y is higher than zero. Madoff also promise 15%/y. Michael Milken 15% was good enough for innovations
After all these years of negative/zero rates, do you seriously think Japan can raise rates to 6-7% without imploding?
Mary
1 year ago
COP27 took place not far from Mount Sinai, a site that is central to many faiths and to the story of Moses, or Musa. It’s fitting.
The fervor, the pearl clutching, I wonder if any in the audience swooned. I still pine for the old days when we raved about the new museum exhibit of Piltdown Man and declared we had found the missing link. Science completed, now all go home there is nothing more to see here
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
We live in a predatory society. A conspiracy is “a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful”. That explains the American Bankers Association. To wit:
“I know of no model that shows a transmission from bank
reserves to inflation” – DONALD KOHN – former Vice Chairman of the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
“Reserves don’t even factor into my model, that’s not what
causes inflation and not how the Fed stimulates the economy. It’s a side
effect.” – LAURENCE MEYER –a Federal Reserve System governor
from June 1996 to January 2002
The DIDMCA of March 31st 1980 is prima facie evidence. It
created the S&L crisis. Like the old, thrift-school, now forgotten, saw
goes: “Disintermediation is made in Washington” See: Barron’s: “One Crunch Too
Many”, May 22, 1978
There have been 12 boom/busts in real-estate since WWII
(along with 12 recessions). These BuB originally thought the S&L crisis was
a capital crunch. He has now recanted.
Bernanke, Ben S., and Cara S. Lown (1991). “The Credit
Crunch,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991:2, pp. 205-39.
His ignorance (not knowing a credit from a debit), produced
FOMC schizophrenia: Do I stop because inflation is increasing? Or do I go
because R-gDp is falling?
“Matthew O’Brien of the “Washington Post” undertaking a
simple yet illuminating word count in a blog post for the Brussels-based
Bruegel think tank. He found that, in the run-up to the Lehman collapse, the
mentions of “inflation” in the transcripts vastly outnumbered those for
“systemic risks/crises”: 468 versus 35 at the June 2008 FOMC meeting and 322
versus 19 at the August meeting. Even more notable: “At the September 16, 2008
meeting [that is the day after Lehman failed] there were 129 mentions of
inflation…and only 4 of systemic risks/crisis”.
“…There have been 12 boom/busts in real-estate since WWII
(along with 12 recessions)….”
From 1945 to 2022 is 77 years. Divided by 12, is 6.4 years per cycle on average. BTW, a lot of those cycles are ‘related’ to oil prices–not necessarily causal.
Schumpeter and others identify the following cycles (wikipedia-we know all):
The Kitchin inventory cycle of 3 to 5 years (after Joseph Kitchin)
The Juglar fixed-investment cycle of 7 to 11 years (often identified as “the” business cycle). A range of periods rather than one fixed
period is needed to capture business cycle fluctuations, which may be
done by using a random or irregular source as in an econometric or
statistical framework.
The Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle of 15 to 25 years (after Simon Kuznets – also called “building cycle”)
The Kondratiev wave or long technological cycle of 45 to 60 years (after the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev)
Perhaps of more interest to you: ‘… simple compound interest mandates the cycling of monetary systems… Dimitry Orlov
The NBFIs are the DFI’s customers. The elimination of Reg. Q Ceilings flies in the face of this truism. It was true that MMFs impacted the NBFIs, but high interest rates were due to a faulty FED policy prescription, i.e., the FED FUNDS BRACKET RACKET.
“As any unbiased banker should know, all the money
taken in by the money funds goes right back into the banks, in the form of CDs
or bankers acceptances or other money market instruments; there is no net loss
of deposits to the banking system. Complete deregulation of interest rates
would simply allow a further escalation of rates by the banks, all of which
compete against each other for the same total of deposits.”
Written by Louis Stone whom the movie “Wall
Street” was dedicated to – Vice President Shearson/American Express
re: “There are numerous sources of business cycle movements such as rapid and significant changes in the price of oil or variation in consumer sentiment that affects overall spending in the macroeconomy and thus investment and firms’ profits. Usually, such sources are unpredictable in advance and can be viewed as random “shocks” to the cyclical pattern, as happened during the 2007–2008 financial crises or the COVID-19 pandemic.”
2007-2008 was no “random shock”. Bankrupt-u-Bernanke drained legal reserves for 29 contiguous months, turning safe assets into impaired assets, i.e., it was the greatest contraction in money flows since the GD.
We need more blankets for the cold and shivering people!
Webej
1 year ago
Three mitigating factors:
The funding is not clear, which means nobody will be pitching any money, waiting for others to throw the first dollars (Dollars?)
The losses are very difficult to establish, and will be good for years of wrangling
The attribution will be be the subject of decades of scientific discussion: Although it is possible to say something about the likelihood of climatic parameters and possible shifts in them, probability statistics are impossible to prove for concrete events.
“All analysis is a model” – Nobel Laureate in Economics Dr. Ken
Arrow.
My “unified theory” is based upon American, Yale Professor Irving Fisher –
1920 2nd edition: “The Purchasing Power of Money”:
“If the principles here advocated are correct, the purchasing power of money
— or its reciprocal, the level of prices — depends exclusively on five definite
factors:
…“In my opinion, the branch of economics which treats of these five
regulators of purchasing power ought to be recognized and ultimately will be recognized
as an EXACT SCIENCE, capable of precise formulation, demonstration, and
statistical verification.”
Scientific
evidence “is
proof, which serves to either support or counter a scientific theory or
hypothesis. Such evidence is expected to be empirical evidence and in
accordance with scientific method” – Wikipedia
Scientific method is “a method or procedure…consisting in
systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation,
testing, and modification of hypotheses”
Both Shadow Stats and Divisia Monetary Aggregates gets this right:
Change is good : SCO built a wall to replace the dollar. Change is good : the wind and sun will replace coal and oil. Moderation is better than radical changes. Biden & Xi met for 3 hours to moderate the tension between the two great nations. // TY was stopped by a support
line coming from 1987 to Jan 2000 low. The trend is down, the trend is strong. // When the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ will cooperate and coordinate their movements, when gravity between them will be low, JP without much friction will be able to raise rates to 6%-8% to fight inflation.
Change is good. The Fed is no longer stand a alone mountain. Central banks in unison will raise rates, moderating the spread between them. The real rates in US, EU and Japan will be above the CPI.
So engineering a global crisis is a good idea? Do you not understand the inherent danger in central banks colluding and what this will do to the US dollar? More importantly, exactly where does Klaus Schwab fit into the grand scheme?
DXY failed to breach the 115.43/126.02 trading range. DXY is hovering above Jan 1974 fractal zone : 109.50/ 105.90. // Currently DX is trying to reach/ breach the daily trading range : 107.67/110.78 from below. It might move up in a sling shot. If fail it will cont lower.
Dave
1 year ago
Should I write an apology letter to Pakistan because I made their floods happen?
The generally accepted view is “The accident was triggered by the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, which occurred in the Pacific Ocean about 72 kilometres (45 mi) east of the Japanese mainland at 14:46 JST on Friday, 11 March 2011”
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
“Justice for those on the frontlines who did so little to cause the crisis – including the victims of the recent floods in Pakistan that inundated one-third of the country.”
Pakistan is $hithole with no population control, and they are the victims? Yes, the victim of her own population’s backwardness.
That the so called climate conference doesn’t even mention that fact, is cause enough to doubt this will go anywhere.
Everything else about fouling up of the ecosystem, and that includes climate, is correct. Only problem is that the idiots are in charge of addressing the problem.
RonJ
1 year ago
“In case you are wondering about the Secretary-General’s statement
regarding a loss and damage fund, John Kerry signed up for it at the
conference.”
So Kerry is going to deposit his personal fortune into the loss and damage fund? Oh, that’s right, he is going to deposit other people’s money. He will hang on to his fortune. How generous of him. How much money does the middle class have, to pay for all of this generosity?
billybobjr
1 year ago
The New King of England has the servants put the toothpaste on his brush everyday and the Royals are exempt
from the taxes the people are required to pay . That is all you need to know about how out of touch these people are.
Climate change formerly known as global warming and before that global cooling is just the
repackaged narrative to screw the average people out of money and create a crisis to divide people.
These people at that conference intend to keep living the way they are spewing many thousands
of times the carbon that the average person does . They could have had the conference via Virtual
and saved all that jet fuel and fossil fuels that were burnt but then again this is not what that is about .
It is about control and there are a big percentage of people who actually believe it and become activist
Touring Karnak, Luxor and the Great Pyramids on a virtual screen is just not the same as being there.
Being an Elite has its perks.
xbizo
1 year ago
We are quite privileged to think that 100 year droughts don’t happen or that we can prevent them. History says different. We should be rolling out De-sal and nuclear. De-sal to address the coming problems. Nuclear as a hedge against carbon being the cause.
Completely agree, we obviously need more potable water, especially for agriculture where aquifers are drying up.
We also need cheaper energy, not just nukes though.
It’s a ridiculous waste of time to debate whether or not climate change is real, or what the cause is when we know there’s a problem that can be addressed and both sides will agree.
What if a 3 degree Celcius increase in temperature increases evaporation from the seas, with a corresponding increase in rainfall–something like the rains that occurred millions of years ago, when the planet was thriving on high levels of CO2?
RonJ
1 year ago
“We can and must win this battle for our lives.”
It’s a propaganda campaign that Goebbels would be proud of.
“800 private jets flew to Egypt to tell you to ride your bike to work.”
The elitists want us to believe we are all in this together.
Like abortion is used to drive votes for the left. The federal issue could have been solved 2-3 times when the Dems had control in the past. They need and want abortion to be an ongoing issue to rally their base. We have a very smart and deliberate political class. Dems are a little smarter though.
Yes, the apparent controversy is due to the fact that the idiots have taken up the cause.
That doesn’t translate that the cause doesn’t exist, only that it is doomed with these cretins in charge.
MarkraD
1 year ago
I strongly disagree with funding countries for climate disasters, that’s akin to taking responsibility to buy LED’s for countries that stocked incandescent lights.
As technology changes we can’t be held to account for consequences of older technology, 3rd world countries are going to be lining up for free money if we open that door.
It’s all about control of the people. Climate is their excuse to impose global socialism. The G20 discussed vaccine passports for permission of international travel, under the WHO. This to be tied into a digital ID. What is your social credit score? Don’t leave home without it.
RonJ
1 year ago
“Instead of a burning bush, we face a burning planet.”
I guess they didn’t see the story about the huge snowfall in Buffalo.
It shows that children still grow up knowing what snow is. Climate has never been static. The U.S. was hot in the 1930’s, then got colder into the 1970’s. Climate alarmists want people to think that climate only goes in one direction.
Looks like you’re sold on the idea that increased temps for the last 150 years is natural, not CO related.
We’ll get nowhere if I debate that, just wanted to point out that a single snow storm does not disprove global warming
IMO, it’s too late to change global warming fast enough to account for agriculture, I think we should be prioritizing agriculture to adapt to climate change.
Where it seems you at least acknowledge temps increasing, seems maybe that should be your priority too.
There were droughts all across the globe this year, that can’t be ignored.
“Climate alarmists want people to think that climate only goes in one direction.”
Actually no. That is the great con. Global warming was easy to test as an hypothesis–the global temperature had to go up over time (the infamous hockey stick). But the evidence, despite what we are told, is far from reliable. Climate change on the other hand is virtually ‘proven’ by constructing a faulty hypothesis. Any weather event, mild or not, hot or cold, can be compared to no change from some ‘ideal’ climate. This is so the media can get the simpletons to accept. The true test would be to look at the variance (distribution) of weather over prolonged time. Even then, more 100-year events is proof of change as are fewer 100-year-events. Climate change will always be proven given the weather.
randocalrissian
1 year ago
If China could onboard nuclear at their preferred rate, yellowcake would already be well over $100/lb. Not that it is a valid excuse, but their coal is probably not a permanent and long-term solution. At least let’s hope they curtail it.
We might as well kick our certain extinction can as far down the road as we can so that only 10,000 years from now when all containment fails and the world is poisoned by nuclear waste, we’ll probably have snuffed our torch by then anyway.
KidHorn
1 year ago
Every bad weather event is blamed on higher levels of greenhouse gasses. Scientifically, higher greenhouse gases should do the opposite. There should be fewer bad weather events since the temperature gradient between the poles and tropics will be less. And the data actually shows this.
The US thinks we’re in charge of the world and we can dictate what everyone has to do. May have been true in say 1990, but it’s clearly not true now. A lot of countries are going to side with the BRICS and shut us out. Most of the world hates us but until recently have been too scared to show it publicly.
Why don’t you learn something about thermodynamics or physics before posting nonsense. Did you know the hottest places on earth have little to no weather.
And can you explain to me how greenhouse gasses add energy to a system?
I had pegged you as somebody with at least a high school education. Maybe you have the paper, but you don’t have the education. You’re hereby downgraded to GVK, or Garden Variety Kook along with RonJ.
I fully expect you to tearfully insist that the laws of physics have been stolen by liberals to further their nefarious agenda. Let the darkness flow through you!
None of your responses are relevant. Trapping energy doesn’t add energy. It impedes the decrease of energy. And your post about stability has nothing to do with this topic.
Proof?” WSJ July 21, 2022
Link: Daniel L. Thornton, Vice President and
Economic Adviser: Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working
Paper Series:
“Monetary
Policy: Why Money Matters and Interest Rates Don’t”
Thornton:
“the interest rate is the price of credit, not the price of money”
“Today “monetary policy” should be more aptly
named “interest rate policy” because policymakers pay virtually no attention to
money.”
reserves to inflation” – DONALD KOHN – former Vice Chairman of the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
causes inflation and not how the Fed stimulates the economy. It’s a side
effect.” – LAURENCE MEYER – a Federal Reserve System governor
from June 1996 to January 2002
created the S&L crisis. Like the old, thrift-school, now forgotten, saw
goes: “Disintermediation is made in Washington” See: Barron’s: “One Crunch Too
Many”, May 22, 1978
There have been 12 boom/busts in real-estate since WWII
(along with 12 recessions). These BuB originally thought the S&L crisis was
a capital crunch. He has now recanted.
Bernanke, Ben S., and Cara S. Lown (1991). “The Credit
Crunch,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991:2, pp. 205-39.
His ignorance (not knowing a credit from a debit), produced
FOMC schizophrenia: Do I stop because inflation is increasing? Or do I go
because R-gDp is falling?
“Matthew O’Brien of the “Washington Post” undertaking a
simple yet illuminating word count in a blog post for the Brussels-based
Bruegel think tank. He found that, in the run-up to the Lehman collapse, the
mentions of “inflation” in the transcripts vastly outnumbered those for
“systemic risks/crises”: 468 versus 35 at the June 2008 FOMC meeting and 322
versus 19 at the August meeting. Even more notable: “At the September 16, 2008
meeting [that is the day after Lehman failed] there were 129 mentions of
inflation…and only 4 of systemic risks/crisis”.
(along with 12 recessions)….”
period is needed to capture business cycle fluctuations, which may be
done by using a random or irregular source as in an econometric or
statistical framework.
“As any unbiased banker should know, all the money
taken in by the money funds goes right back into the banks, in the form of CDs
or bankers acceptances or other money market instruments; there is no net loss
of deposits to the banking system. Complete deregulation of interest rates
would simply allow a further escalation of rates by the banks, all of which
compete against each other for the same total of deposits.”
Written by Louis Stone whom the movie “Wall
Street” was dedicated to – Vice President Shearson/American Express
The FED controls
monetary flows, the volume and velocity of money. Alan Blinder is wrong about
oil (supply shocks).
Thus
my prediction for the bottom in oil was:
are constants but “K” is not. K is the reciprocal of Vt. The bottom isn’t Dec.
but Jan. (like last year)”
troughed in Jan this year as long-term money flows fell by 80 percent from
1/2013 to 1/2016. Oil fell by 70 percent during the same period.
“All analysis is a model” – Nobel Laureate in Economics Dr. Ken
Arrow.
My “unified theory” is based upon American, Yale Professor Irving Fisher –
1920 2nd edition: “The Purchasing Power of Money”:
“If the principles here advocated are correct, the purchasing power of money
— or its reciprocal, the level of prices — depends exclusively on five definite
factors:
…“In my opinion, the branch of economics which treats of these five
regulators of purchasing power ought to be recognized and ultimately will be recognized
as an EXACT SCIENCE, capable of precise formulation, demonstration, and
statistical verification.”
evidence “is
proof, which serves to either support or counter a scientific theory or
hypothesis. Such evidence is expected to be empirical evidence and in
accordance with scientific method” – Wikipedia
Scientific method is “a method or procedure…consisting in
systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation,
testing, and modification of hypotheses”
regarding a loss and damage fund, John Kerry signed up for it at the
conference.”