The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

For the first half of this year, I have steadfastly refused to join Club Recessionista. I have not believed we were already in a recession, and I was hopeful that a moderate Fed gradually raising rates to throttle inflation could execute that soft landing. No longer. As I mentioned to Tom Keene last week, Nick Timiraos in the Wall Street Journal revealed the Fed’s intention to raise rates 75 basis points brought a reckoning to my hopes of a non-recessionary growth slow down.

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The Reformed Broker

JULY 28, 2022

It’s been an honor and a pleasure writing, recording and filming for you guys all year. 2022 has been incredibly challenging as an investor, a financial advisor, an investment advisory CEO and a professional market commentator. Tough all around. Like everyone else, I’ve gotten some stuff right and some stuff wrong this year. Based on this week’s reaction to large cap technology company earnings and the F.

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Abnormal Returns

JULY 29, 2022

The biz Nonfiction podcasting has a plagarism problem. (theracket.news) Audiobook functionality will arrive inside Spotify ($SPOT) “quite imminently.” (variety.com) 45 podcast episodes to help you learn about investing. (overlookedalpha.com) The 15 best tech podcasts including the 'Techmeme Ride Home.' (fastcompany.com) Business Will Thorndike talks with Nick Howley who is the Founder and Executive Chairman of TransDigm ($TDG).

Investing 240

Investing Investments Management Marketing 240

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 27, 2022

Financial planning is both an art and a science. While an advisor needs technical financial planning knowledge to create and implement plans for clients, soft skills that involve effective communication and relationship building are also crucial to both relate to prospects and clients and to understand their needs. Further, one of the most important qualitative ways an advisor can add value to clients is by helping them identify and select meaningful goals.

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Accounting

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Today is Fed day, when we get the 75 bps increase that dramatically increases the odds of a recession. The main storyline is inflation, but the overlooked subplot here is Wages. I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic.

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Abnormal Returns

JULY 24, 2022

Top clicks this week Why most people will not run out of money in retirement. (mrmoneymustache.com) Five things to do as an investor in your 20's. (peterlazaroff.com) Why you should stop reading the news. (experimentalhistory.substack.com) Kids cost money, a lot of it. (rootofall.substack.com) Investing in stocks is bet on human ingenuity. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Jonathan Clements, "There’s what we think we want from our money—and then there’s what we truly want.

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Nerd's Eye View

JULY 26, 2022

Welcome back to the 291st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Amy Irvine. Amy is the owner of Rooted Planning Group, an independent RIA based in Corning, New York that oversees $67 million in assets under management for 175 client households. What's unique about Amy, though, is how she managed the complexities of starting her own RIA focused on Gen X women, and then dealt with unexpected growing pains as her business development worked ‘too wel

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The Big Picture

JULY 23, 2022

This week, we speak with Graham Weaver, who is the founder and CEO of Alpine Investors, a private equity firm in San Francisco that invests in software and services. Graham has been in private equity for over 20 years, having started Alpine in his dorm room at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. We discuss how he launched a PE company in his dorm at Stanford’s GSB, and proceeded to “make every mistake in the book.” But his investors stayed with him, impressed by his commu

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Communication Investing Investments Marketing 302

The Reformed Broker

JULY 26, 2022

Final Trades: NXP Semi, Broadcom & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Banking

Abnormal Returns

JULY 29, 2022

Strategy John Rekenthaler, "Avoid portfolio managers who claim to know how “this time will be different.” It probably won’t be. Even if it is, it may not match their expectations." (morningstar.com) Ben Carlson, "Investing would be easier if markets followed a set pattern but that’s not how things work. Humans are unpredictable so the stock market is as well.

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Nerd's Eye View

JULY 27, 2022

Financial planning is both an art and a science. While an advisor needs technical financial planning knowledge to create and implement plans for clients, soft skills that involve effective communication and relationship building are also crucial to both relate to prospects and clients and to understand their needs. Further, one of the most important qualitative ways an advisor can add value to clients is by helping them identify and select meaningful goals.

Financial Planning 222

Financial Planning Planning Clients Retirement 222

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter.

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Government Economy Economics Marketing 290

Pragmatic Capitalism

JULY 28, 2022

1) Are we in a recession? 2) The housing downturn is only just beginning. 3) Is the Fed pivoting to easing? .

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Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2022

Books Five insights from Kathryn Judge's new book "Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source." (nextbigideaclub.com) An excerpt from Paul Pringle’s new nonfiction thriller "Bad City: Peril and Power in the City of Angels." (hollywoodreporter.com) Climate change Climate change denial has been an organized PR effort on behalf of industry.

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Government Economy Economics Investing 130

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 28, 2022

Financial advisors are often innately inclined to set long-term goals and stay on the course to help their clients achieve their goals, as the advisor understands the bigger picture of having a financial roadmap and its benefits. However, when long-term goals in a financial plan are too rigid, many clients may not be naturally inclined to stick with those goals or even with the financial advisor.

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Financial Planning Financial Advisor Clients Communication 201

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession : Even if gross domestic product figures show a shrinking economy, a recession won’t officially have begun unless the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. ( Washington Post ). • Why doesn’t the Fed just hike 200bp all at once? The cases for and against bold, abrupt moves ( Noahpinion ). • Despite Headwinds, Institutions See Opportunities Private market returns have come down off th

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Startup Economy Economics Planning 289

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% In May The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

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Management 144

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2022

Markets The 2020s are shaping up as the most volatile decade for the stock market. (politicalcalculations.blogspot.com) Trend following strategies have historically thrived during periods of higher inflation. (ft.com) Strategy Stop chasing for some 'holy grail' investing strategy. (novelinvestor.com) Why you should 'zoom out' when thinking about investing.

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Nerd's Eye View

JULY 25, 2022

2022 was a year that began with high hopes as households were slowly re-emerging from pandemic shutdowns, markets were reaching new highs, and most advisory firms had growing momentum. Within just a few months, though, Omicron had led to another wave of at least partial shutdowns, inflation began to rear its ugly head in a way not seen in decades, and the market fell to its worst first-half start since 1970.

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The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The Q4 E-Tron and Q4 E-Tron Sportback are geared toward first-time EV buyers who want a mainstream, well-made, luxury SUV. Based on the same MEB electric platform as the parent company Volkswagen, it’s similar to the VW ID.4. Unlike their EV competitors, Audi is simply electrifying their current line of ICE SUVs. Compared to futuristic and spacey models like 2023 Genesis GV60 and the Kia EV6 , Audi’s crossovers present as very familiar vehicles that just happen to have an electric p

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Taxes 281

Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

The DOL reported : In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for s easonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000 , a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 251,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average.

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Management

Abnormal Returns

JULY 27, 2022

Markets When the risk-free rises, a lot of calculations change. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Putting your investment losses into perspective. (allstarcharts.com) Technology Mark Zuckerberg has put Facebook ($META) employees on notice. (theverge.com) The semiconductor shortage is easing, but it is not across-the-board. (wired.com) Twitter ($TWTR) is cutting back its office space.

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The Reformed Broker

JULY 27, 2022

Meta misses on top and bottom from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bel appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

My back-to-work a recession is coming morning train WFH reads: • Inverted Yield Curve: A Recession Alarm Is Ringing on Wall Street : An inversion of the bond market’s yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century. It is happening again. ( New York Times ). • There Was Never Anything Wrong With Value : How the influence of popular value benchmarks challenges investor faith in the style and even the business of some value managers. ( Institutional Investor ) see also The

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Medicine Engineering Valuation Management 143

The Irrelevant Investor

JULY 26, 2022

The bad news is that the percentage of companies beating earnings is the lowest it’s been since 2015. The good news, at least in the short term, is that not bad might be good enough. Google, which missed on the top and bottom line for the second quarter, is up 3% in the after hours. The stock was down 30% from its highs going into the print, so it appears that investors had discounted the disappointment.

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Banking

Abnormal Returns

JULY 27, 2022

HNW Money lessons learned from the Vanderbilts. (humbledollar.com) Why wealthy investors love real estate so much. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Securities-based lending continues to grow despite of a bear market. (wsj.com) Real estate Home renovations are not a great investment. (awealthofcommonsense.com) A new options for retirees looking to age in place.

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Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $133.5 billion (0.6 percent) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $120.4 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $181.1 billion (1.1 percent).

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Food Economics 133

A Wealth of Common Sense

JULY 26, 2022

A reader asks: Many right now are saying real estate is the only way to get a real return in a safe manner. Will you post some data on real estate vs. bonds vs. stocks? You always have to be careful when you use the word “safe” when it comes to investing. An investment that feels safe now could be very risky in the future and vice versa.

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