The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free. This takes place tomorrow (Friday) December 9th at 12 noon ET (11am CT). This is a presentation for wealth management and asset management professionals, you can reg.

Wealth Management 338

Wealth Management Assets Management 338

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.

Distribution 304

Distribution Economics Accounting 304

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Inflation data from St. Louis Fed amended with October data from other sources, chart by Mish. Yesterday, I commented on Inflation Around the World: How Does the US Compare to Canada and the EU? but have new sources for October data. Year-Over-Year EU Inflation Soars in October EU inflation is getting out of hand. For example, yesterday I said inflation in France peaked at 6.08 percent and fell to 5.55 percent ion September.

Economy 301

Economy Economics 301

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 3, 2022

EVs The Chevy Bolt EUV is a bargain electric vehicle. (arstechnica.com) Toyota's Prius used to be synonymous with hybrids. (ritholtz.com) Nissan once lead EV sales with the Leaf. Now it it is looking for a path forward. (axios.com) The U.S. charging network is a mess. (wsj.com) Autos Roundabouts are taking over America. (washingtonpost.com) American exceptionalism when it comes to road deaths is notable.

Food 217

Food Financial Advising Media Sales 217

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Accounting

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 3, 2022

We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience. Taping is December 16th at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. We’re reviewing the year that was and looking ahead to 2023.

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Mish Talk

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.

Banking 300

Banking Numbers Economics 300

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Podcasts Rick Ferri talks estate planning with Ryan Barrett and Mike Piper. (bogleheads.podbean.com) Michael Kitces and Carl Richards talk about the opportunity and limits of advisor automation. (kitces.com) Philanthropy Why business owners are adopting 504(c)(4)s to maintain control while pursuing philanthropic goals. (bloomberg.com) Charitable giving strategies are as varied as the client.

Financial Planner 207

Financial Planner Estate Planning Startup Communication 207

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2022

One of the reasons people in the investment community respect Howard Marks so much is he says what he believes and lets the chips fall where they may. His observations are always insightful, and over the years have becomeopular, but what really set him apart were his big contrarian observations, such as the Amazon dot Bomb in 1999. I did not get to his recent What Really Matters?

Investing 271

Investing Investments 271

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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Thanks to president Biden, The Pentagon Marches Off to Climate War. A little-noticed rule-making proposed by the Department of Defense, NASA and the General Services Administration last month would require federal contractors to disclose and reduce their CO2 emissions as well as climate financial risks. The rule would cover 5,766 contractors that have received at least $7.5 million from the feds in the prior year.

Nonprofit 287

Nonprofit Pharmaceutical Budgeting Manufacturing 287

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Trading Louis Sykes, "Some of the most intelligent and sophisticated traders on the planet lost everything in this market because they let ego get in the way of judgment and sound risk management processes." (allstarcharts.com) Why you likely can't just buy, and successfully use, some one else's trading system. (traderfeed.blogspot.com) Writing Nick Maggiulli's favorite investment writing of 2022.

Media 206

Media Financial Advising Risk Management Economy 206

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 6, 2022

I’m in Texas this week speaking at the Dynasty Investing Forum and seeing clients. The below was one of my best posts of the year, in my own humble opinion I wrote it at pretty much the worst moment for stocks in 2022, during the peak of the September sell-off that drove the S&P 500 to its lowest low – down about 25% on the year. Since this post, JPMorgan shares are up 26%.

Clients 269

Clients Investing Investments 269

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 9, 2022

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Tony Fadell Is Trying to Build the iPod of Crypto : The product guru made Ledger’s new hardware wallet—a tiny vault for digital cash—flashy and fun. Plus, with this gadget you’ll never get FTX’d. ( Wired ). • Bikeshare Roars Back From the Pandemic : The shared micromobility market has been resilient even as commuting patterns have shifted.

Media 271

Media Banking Portfolio Investing 271

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Bond yields from the New York Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes and Synopsis On the horizontal axis, F stands for Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR). The 3 and 6 represent months. I extrapolated rates between years equally. A few days ago the 10-year and 30-year bonds inverted and remain inverted. The EFFR is 3.83 percent. It is inverted with every bond of 5-years duration and longer.

Banking 224

Banking Economics 224

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that amid concern that retail investors are paying ‘hidden’ fees in the form of suboptimal execution of their trades, the SEC is preparing to propose a “Regulation Best Execution” rule that would, among other measures, establish a best execution standard for brokers.

Financial Planner 198

Financial Planner Recruitment Retirement Planning Retirement 198

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Next Friday, December 16th, we will be doing a live taping of The Compound and Friends at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square for an intimate audience of fans and friends. And we’re bringing our pals from the On The Tape podcast along with us – that’s Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Danny Moses. My whole podcast crew will be there t00 – Michael Batnick, Duncan, Nicole and John.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Wall Street’s 2023 Outlook for Stocks : There’s hundreds of pages of research and analysis that come with these strategists’ forecast. The general themes: Most Wall Street firms expect the U.S. economy to go into recession some time in 2023. Many believe forecasts for 2023 earnings have more room to get cut, and some believe those downward revisions mean lots of volatility for stocks in the early part of 2023. ( TKer ). • Burden of proof is on the

Commission 271

Commission Economy Banking Investing 271

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 3, 2022

Inflation data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Credit for the chart idea itself goes to the St. Louis Fed. I downloaded the data and created my own charts to better hone in on the data. Year-Over-Year Inflation Seven Countries Detail. Inflation data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. The EU lags badly when it comes to reporting most data releases.

Economics 212

Economics 212

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Markets U.S. gasoline prices are below where they were a year ago. (nytimes.com) Checking in on the state of the muni bond market. (morningstar.com) Strategy Six year-end financial moves to consider including 'tax loss harvesting.' (blog.validea.com) The questions for alternative assets: how much do you need to own to move the needle? (institutionalinvestor.com) Companies Companies really don't want you to call them.

Financial Advising 196

Financial Advising Media Assets Economy 196

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Bryn Talkington, and Downtown Josh Brown sit down in front of a live audience at the Dynasty Investors Forum discuss consumer strength, energy stocks, inflation coming down, BREIT, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Marketing 130

Marketing Marketing 130

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2022

My morning train WFH reads: • The Cult of the Retail Trader Has Fizzled : The GameStop and AMC manias are long gone, with individual investor returns falling 40% this year and digital currency prices tumbling. ( Businessweek ). • FTX’s Bahamas Headquarters Was the First Clue : Bankman-Fried is just the latest in a long string of notorious characters who moved their business to the island nation, from the pirate Blackbeard to organized crime figures and assorted “financial wizards.” ( Bloomberg )

Transportation 270

Transportation Retail Portfolio Assets 270

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Management

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

ISM data and discussion by permission from ISM. Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 percent. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.8 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower than the 56.2 percent reported in October.

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 9, 2022

The biz The top podcasts of 2022, per Apple Podcasts. (9to5mac.com) The case for quitting Spotify ($SPOT). (om.co) Business David Rosenthal and Benjamin Gilbert talk with Ben Thompson about the business of Stratechery. (acquired.fm) Roben Farzad talks with Felix Gillette and Joel Mier about the future of streaming. (podcasts.apple.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks economic trends with Mohamed El-Erian.

Portfolio Management 191

Portfolio Management Economics Economy Portfolio 191

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 6, 2022

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through December 6th. Lumber was at $413 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 54% from $907 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing 145

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Those regional differences from the ideal are eye-opening! Source: Nature. The post Healthy Eating appeared first on The Big Picture.

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269

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Banking

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Producer Price Index from BLS, chart by Mish. Last month I noted the PPI cools with first decline in services in two years. That didn't last long. Please consider the BLS Producer Price Index report for November 2022. PPI Key Month-Over-Month Details The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices also rose 0.3 percent in both October and September.

Food 187

Food Transportation Retail Advertising 187

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Markets Small cap stocks stand out for their cheap valuations. (morningstar.com) Why have energy stocks and oil prices diverged? (compoundadvisors.com) Strategy Ben Carlson, "We’ve never seen a market environment like this where both stocks and bonds were crushed simultaneously." (awealthofcommonsense.com) A Q&A with Bob Pisani author of “Shut Up & Keep Talking: Lessons on Life and Investing from the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Startup 191

Startup Marketing Marketing Financial Advising 191

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2022 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $143.3 trillion during the third quarter of 2022. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $1.9 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.8 trillion. Household debt increased 6.3 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2022.

Nonprofit 144

Nonprofit Assets Accounting 144