Sat.Oct 22, 2022 - Fri.Oct 28, 2022

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Can Anyone Catch Nokia?

The Big Picture

Today’s edition of “ Nobody Knows Anything ” is about a once-dominant mobile phone maker. Exactly 15 years ago, Forbes’s new cover story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted: “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.

Economy 364
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Why The Value Of A Roth Conversion Is Calculated Using (True) Marginal Tax Rates

Nerd's Eye View

Roth conversions are, in essence, a way to pay income taxes on pre-tax retirement funds in exchange for future tax-free growth and withdrawals. The decision of whether or not to convert pre-tax assets to Roth is, on its surface, a simple one: If the assets in question would be taxed at a lower rate by converting them to Roth and paying tax on them today, versus waiting to pay the tax in the future when they are eventually withdrawn, then the Roth conversion makes sense.

Taxes 226
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Monday links: bond market losses

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How much has indexing saved investors in fees? (evidenceinvestor.com) Some investors may not understand when they take on leverage. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Companies Brad Gerstner on how to turn Meta's ($META) stock around. (medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. (theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation.

Marketing 227
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Are the Bond Vigilantes Back?

Pragmatic Capitalism

Bond vigilantes reflect the idea that bond investors can attack a government debt market and dictate terms that the government wouldn’t otherwise desire.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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How the Fed Causes (Model) Inflation

The Big Picture

My colleague Ben Carlson asked the question “ Why Isn’t Inflation Falling? ” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices.

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Tuesday links: the heat of the moment

Abnormal Returns

Markets Given the market downturn, why isn't the VIX higher? (ft.com) 52-week lows have dried up. (allstarcharts.com) Rates Why the rapid rise in short term interest rates is a big deal. (fortunesandfrictions.com) The 40 in 60/40 portfolio is looking a lot better these days. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Media Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) is taking a big content-related write-off.

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The One with Matt Levine and Mary Childs

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Mary Childs, Matt Levine, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss Matt’s epic cover-to-cover Bloomberg piece on crypto, Elon’s first moves as Twitter owner, Facebook’s collapse, the future of Credit Suisse, the best finance books, and more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to yo.

Marketing 130
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Dare Ya

The Big Picture

is Mr. Market daring Jerome Powell to keep raising rates? That’s one way to read into today’s surging market — Nasdaq up 2.9%, the Dow tacking on over 800 points (2.6%), and the S&P 500 added 2.5%. Despite the carnage in big-cap tech stocks like Facebook, Amazon and Google, the Nasdaq is up 2% for the past week. The S&P500 has gained nearly 4% for the week, and is up almost 7% for the past 30 days.

Planning 282
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Comparing Alternative RIA Custodians: The List To Consider Beyond The Big 2

Nerd's Eye View

The choice of an advisory firm’s custodial affiliation is easily one of its most important business decisions. The advisory firm is the front end of the client relationship, but it entrusts client assets, and key aspects of their service, to a custodian that safeguards the money and provides the underlying platform. And given the logistical challenges of switching between custodians, inertia often leads firms to stick with the same custodian for years or decades, even when a better fit mig

Retail 152
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Thursday links: on-demand delivery

Abnormal Returns

Markets Bitcoin has been boring of late. (ft.com) Not all (emerging) markets are created equal. (allstarcharts.com) Companies Zuck is running Meta ($META) into the ground. (ez.substack.com) Elon is trying to reassure Twitter ($TWTR) advertisers. (variety.com) Hedge funds Big money managers keep snapping up private credit shops. (ft.com) Multi-strategy hedge funds are the new fund of funds.

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Clips From Today’s Closing Bell

The Reformed Broker

Meta needs to focus on real revenue streams, not the Metaverse, says Ritholtz’s Josh Brown from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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2024 Rolls Royce Spectre EV

The Big Picture

The Rolls Royce Spectre is the first electric car to come from the luxe auitomasker (owned by BMW); its all-electric powertrain produces 577 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque. The stats are impressive: 0-to-60 mph = 4.4 seconds. Top speed of 155 mph. 577 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque. Total driving range 260 miles. Charge from 10-80% full in 34 minutes.

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#FA Success Ep 304: Leveraging Surge Meetings To Find Efficiency With Client Reviews And New Client Onboarding, With Chad Chubb

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 304th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Chad Chubb. Chad is the founder of WealthKeel, an independent virtual RIA based in Tampa, Florida that advises on over $100 million of assets for 110 client households. What's unique about Chad, though, is how he has not only implemented a “surge meeting” approach to meet with each of his ongoing clients during a two-month period twice a year, but has gone further to implement

Clients 130
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Personal finance links: transformative purchases

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Bob Seawright about how to make behavioral finance actionable. (peterlazaroff.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk FIRE with Kiersten and Julien Saunders authors of a new book called "Cashing Out: Win the Wealth Game by Walking Away." (morningstar.com) Investing Bear markets have a tendency to compress investor time frames.

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Stocks Always Bottom Before the Economy Does

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ?Stocks Rally, Yields Drop – Why would you be selling now if you haven’t sold already? ?Stocks Bottom First – Stocks will plunge way before earnings, GDP, and Payrolls do. ?

Economy 130
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Meta-Four

The Big Picture

We discussed how ephemeral and short-lived great success can be yesterday in Can Anyone Catch Nokia? As I was writing it, I had no idea it was a metaphor for what would happen a few hours later, a coincidental preface to a discussion about another mega-cap tech — META, aka Facebook. I asked Scott Galloway about which of the Four firms was most likely to falter, we (more or less) agreed that it was Facebook.

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Personal Income increased 0.4% in September; Spending increased 0.6%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).

Food 145
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Wednesday links: overweighting today’s news

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why investors have turned away from actively managed funds. (on.ft.com) Why so few investors utilize managed futures. (blog.validea.com) There really are only four outcomes to a trade. (allstarcharts.com) Innovation Nokia ($NOK) is an object lesson in the innovator's dilemma. (ritholtz.com) Newly minted unicorns are once again a rarity. (wapo.st) a16z is feeling the pain of the crypto crash.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Merck, Defense, Clearway Energy & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • For Diving FAANG Stocks, It’s the End of an Era : The five FAANG stocks are on track for their worst simultaneous losses ever, a far cry from their late-2021 highs. The stocks—Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet—have posted double-digit declines this year for the first time.

Startup 272
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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 36% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 13%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 22, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 36% above one year ago.

Sales 145
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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Friday links: the blah economy

Abnormal Returns

Bonds The bond market is setting all sorts of historical records this year. (ft.com) Why TIPS failed just when investor needed them the most. (morningstar.com) Twitter Elon Musk tried to wriggle out of it, but he is now the proud owner of Twitter. (axios.com) Twitter's time as a public company was a relative disappointment for shareholders. (finance.yahoo.com) Apple Apple ($AAPL) is working hard to rid itself of excess cash.

Economy 130
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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: GE, Wynn & Shake Shack from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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MiB: Marta Norton, Morningstar Investment Management

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Marta Norton, Chief Investment Officer for Morningstar Investment Management (MIM ). The firm manages or advises on about $250 billion in advisor assets. Norton’s responsibilities include equity, alternative and fixed income research, asset allocation, and portfolio management. Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Norton was an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a research analyst at LECG LLC.

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NMHC: Survey shows "Apartment Market Softens" in October

Calculated Risk

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Market Softens, Sales Put on Hold Amidst Rising Rates and Economic Uncertainty Rising interest rates caused by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to combat inflation continue to impact the multifamily business. However, it is worth noting that the overall apartment market has begun to revert to pre-pandemic trends as rent growth is decreasing.

Marketing 143
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Podcast links: planning a podcast

Abnormal Returns

The biz How an idea becomes a podcast: the case of the new 'Work Appropriate' pod. (annehelen.substack.com) Is listening to audiobooks really reading? (wired.com) How to write a podcast script. (casted.us) Business Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with Jeremiah Lowin of Prefect.io about making original mistakes. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Frazer Rice talks the business of online dating with Irina Manta of the 'Strangers on the Internet' podcast.

Planning 130
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Everyone Is Predicting a Recession But No One is Acting Like It (Yet)

A Wealth of Common Sense

Whenever the next recession happens, every human being on the planet can take credit for calling it in advance. Everyone and their brother has been predicting an economic slowdown for months now. I guess when the Federal Reserve tells you they are willing to throw the economy into a recession to slow inflation, you should believe them. The weird thing is it would be hard to say we’re in a recession right now.

Economy 130
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of BeanBox coffee, grab a seat in the lobby, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Rent Going Up? One Company’s Algorithm Could Be Why. Texas-based RealPage’s YieldStar software helps landlords set prices for apartments across the U.S. With rents soaring, critics are concerned that the company’s proprietary algorithm is hurting competition.