The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

What do the Great Depression, the Great Financial Crisis, the Stagflationary 1970s, and the upcoming 10-years have in common? If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot. At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. ICYMI: David Kostin and his team of strategists see a 72% chance the S&P 500 underperforms Treasuries, and a 33% possibility equities return less than inflation.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.7% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 34.0%), and down 21.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.6%).

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325

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Does it matter for regulation and the wealth management industry who wins on Election Day?

Wealth Management 311

Wealth Management Management 311

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 22, 2024

Trend following Why trend following is unique. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) If you want trend following returns just do trend following. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Research Want small cap exposure? Go microcap. (mailchi.mp) What ideal diversification looks like. (caia.org) AI is becoming table stakes for hedge funds. (alphaarchitect.com) European investors still prefer dividends over buybacks.

Portfolio 289

Portfolio 289

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Clients

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2024

 This week, we speak with Toto Wolff , Team Principal & CEO of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team. Prior to joining Mercedes, Toto spent time in the investment world, founding his own company Marchfifteen in 1998 and Marchsixteen in 2004. In 2009 Toto combined his passion for racing and business by investing in the Williams F1 Team. He eventually came to be the team’s Executive Director, helping to lead them toward their first win at the Spanish Grand Prix in eight years.

Healthcare 295

Healthcare Management Investing Investments 295

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2024

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales 311

Sales 311

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Markets Degeneracy has become a fixture of the current environment. (howardlindzon.com) The stock market's biggest winners started out as small caps. (freedomdaysolutions.com) Strategy How often do outlier 10-year forecasts turn out? (ritholtz.com) Why optimism makes sense over the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Cash was never meant to be a long-term investment.

Investments 288

Investments Investing Startup Financial Advising 288

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 23, 2024

While the financial advice industry has transformed in many ways over the past several decades, one aspect that has remained relatively constant is the use of the Assets Under Management (AUM) fee model as a common way for many advisors to get paid. Though in practice, while a 1% AUM fee is a common 'starting point' in the industry, the actual fee structure can vary based on the firm's approach; for example, some firms may reduce the fee for high-net-worth clients, or charge an additional fee fo

Clients 246

Clients Financial Advice Financial Planning Financial Advisor 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 23, 2024

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 18, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Sales 292

Sales Marketing Marketing 292

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 23, 2024

The tech firm has quietly become a key cog in the alternative investment ecosystem.

Investing 310

Investing Investments 310

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

Management

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 21, 2024

Podcasts Frazer Rice talks RIA marketing with Richard Heft, President of EXT Marketing. (frazerrice.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Ben Haas about how to conduct client 're-discovery' meetings. (podcasts.apple.com) Josh Brown and Michael Kitces talk about how a recent CFP ad campaign went wrong. (youtube.com) The biz Schwab Advisor Solutions will look to boost revenue, just not through custody fees.

CFP 289

CFP Communication Investment Advisor Management 289

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2024

 At The Money: BlackRock on Building a Bond Ladder (October 23, 2024) Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Karen Veraa is a Fixed Income Product Strategist within BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Group focusing on iShares fixed-income ETFs. She supports iShares clients, generates content on fixed-income markets and ETFs, develops new fixed-income iShares ETF strategies, and partners with the iShares team on product delivery.

Accounting 163

Accounting Investing Investments Portfolio 163

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 25, 2024

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 October The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. 13-19 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 70.1% (+1.6) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$169.85 (+2.5%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$119.01 (+4.2%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

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281

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 25, 2024

Kyle Wiggs, CEO of UX Wealth Partners, discusses the evolving role of TAMPs in wealth management.

Wealth Management 298

Wealth Management Management 298

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

Numbers

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Companies Google's ($GOOGL) big businesses are in a slow, decline. (wheresyoured.at) Starbucks' ($SBUX) new CEO is clearing the decks. (bloomberg.com) Walmart ($WMT) is expanding home delivery of pharmaceuticals. (fastcompany.com) Finance Howard Marks thinks nearly every investor should look at private debt. (on.ft.com) Banks are increasingly backing capital call loans.

Pharmaceutical 284

Pharmaceutical Financial Advising Media Banking 284

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 20, 2024

There are certain financial publications that you can just tell have a European bent to them. They use words with an extra “u” like favourite, glamour, or colour. They use cheque instead of check. And per cent has a space for some reason. The Financial Times and The Economist come to mind. The Economist has a new special report with a series of stories about how America is the envy of the world, economically s.

Economics 145

Economics 145

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.5% year-over-year compared to September 2023. This was the thirty-seventh consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

Sales 278

Sales 278

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 22, 2024

Holistic advisory services like succession planning, retirement strategies and estate planning are needed now more than ever.

Estate Planning 298

Estate Planning Retirement Planning 298

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 22, 2024

Strategy Why we diversify. (awealthofcommonsense.com) On the importance of portfolio rebalancing. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) Pessimists persist because we forget their poor predictions. (whitecoatinvestor.com) Crypto Stablecoins are emerging as the killer use case. (theblock.co) Why the identify of Satoshi matters. (bloomberg.com) The blockchain is coming for real estate.

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Startup Media Portfolio 277

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Retiring abroad can be a dream come true for many Americans, offering the opportunity to explore new cultures, enjoy different climates, and potentially stretch retirement savings. But moving to a new country involves significant financial planning. If you’re considering making the leap, there are key financial considerations you need to weigh before you make this major life change.

Retirement 143

Retirement Healthcare Taxes Medical 143

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Sales 277

Sales 277

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Nitrogen executives showed off platform updates that detail equity exposure and use artificial intelligence to convert client statements into actionable portfolios.

Portfolio 296

Portfolio Clients 296

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Accounting

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 20, 2024

Earlier on Abnormal Returns Celebrating our nineteenth blogiversary. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Five lessons from five great investing books. (dariusforoux.com) Stock market returns are rarely average. (tker.co) Diversification is more than just owning a lot of stocks. (fortunefinancialadvisors.com) Why you can't extrapolate market returns.

Insurance 195

Insurance Assets Investing Investments 195

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 24, 2024

We also answered questions about how to write engaging content, defining your audience when writing, how to balance stories vs. numbers in a presentation and more. Further Reading: 50 Ways the World is Getting Better 1The other choices were What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars and The Money Game. The post Am I a Permabull? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense.

Numbers 139

Numbers 139

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 22, 2024

Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales. At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales. Here is a graph of retail hiring for previous years based on the BLS employment report: Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

Retail 268

Retail Sales 268

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 21, 2024

With NEPC, Hightower and its affiliates will represent over $1.8 trillion in assets under advisement and $258 billion in assets under management.

Consulting 297

Consulting Assets Management 297

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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

Sales

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 22, 2024

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 408th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Maddi Keegan. Maddi is a Financial Advisor and the Director of Operations of Frazier Financial Advisors, an RIA based in Columbus, Ohio that oversees $860M in assets under management for 650 client households. What's unique about Maddi, though, is that after building a successful solo advisory firm, she then decided to merge her business with Frazier Financial Advisors, a mid-

Financial Advisor 130

Financial Advisor Clients Management Taxes 130

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 22, 2024

The U.S. stock market has been on fire of late. But it doesn’t feel like we’ve entered the euphoric phase of investor psychology just yet. In fact, many prognosticators have been lowering expectations. Goldman Sachs put out a research piece that posits the S&P 500 could return just 3% annualized over the next 10 years (just 1% after inflation): These are their baseline assumptions and they offer a range o.

Marketing 130

Marketing Marketing 130

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 23, 2024

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slid 1.0% in September Existing-home sales drew back in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions registered sales declines while the West experienced a sales bounce. Year-over-year, sales fell in three regions but grew in the West. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 1.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted ann

Sales 225

Sales 225

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Brendan McCurdy, managing director of Ares’ financial advisor solutions team, discusses the trend of investing in sports franchises.

Investing 293

Investing Investments Financial Advisor Management 293

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

Management