September, 2022

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You’re not good at this.

The Reformed Broker

A recession so contrived and man-made that every economist, politician, business owner, college student, CEO, rapper and professional athlete has been able to see it coming in real-time for months and months… Take a picture, you may never see anything so obviously about to happen ever again. A child could have foreseen it. At a certain point, a person who is charge of price stability should probably look in the mirr.

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The First Totally Honest Stock Market Story

The Big Picture

The First Totally Honest Stock Market Story. FRIDAY’S MARKETS. By Vinnie Foster Wynans III. Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal. The market rallied early this morning for reasons nobody understands and nobody predicted. CNBC analysts confidently asserted it had something to do with the Senegalese money supply but others pointed to revised monthly figures showing a poor tuna haul off the Peruvian coast.

Marketing 341
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The Most Tax-Friendly States For Retirees: How To Compare State Income Tax Options For Retiring Clients

Nerd's Eye View

As an individual begins planning for retirement, one of the factors often considered is whether (and where) they might relocate to enjoy their retirement. When evaluating their potential options across the U.S., a state’s income tax rules can have a significant impact on where they might choose to live. The perception of a state as having high or low taxes could make it more or less attractive for someone choosing where to relocate, and those perceptions are often skewed by the state’

Taxes 246
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What is the Fed Doing?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Don’t fight the Fed used to be a positive slogan. That’s not the case anymore. If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. How do I know this? Because Fed officials are literally telling us this every time they speak.

Economy 145
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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30-Year Mortgage Rates at 6.30%; 14 Year High

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Boring Day For Rates, But Not "Good" Boring The mortgage market is no stranger to excitement in 2022. Unfortunately, it hasn't been the good kind of excitement. That's especially true of the past few weeks as rates pushed back up to long term highs. After yesterday's upside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (a key inflation report that frequently causes volatility in markets), rates surged up to match the highest levels in 14 years.

Marketing 145

More Trending

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Value Creation

The Reformed Broker

All of the value creation for investors comes from the actions they take in falling markets, not rising ones. If you’re not yet in retirement and not finished putting money into your retirement accounts, every 5% the market falls is an increased opportunity for you to buy things that will be worth much more in the future when you eventually sell them.

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RIP Financial Conferences

The Big Picture

The traditional finance conference was murdered this week. A stake was driven through its heart by innovators tired of the old ways. It was, to be fair, a mercy killing. Living in the past, running on inertia, nobody bothered to tell the patient that it was time to say your goodbyes before we pull the plug. The industry had forgotten why it even exists: To serve an audience that wants to get out of the office, hang with its peers, and learn how to be better at what it does.

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#FA Success Ep 297: From $0 To $70M In 2 Years By Leveraging Facebook Groups To Share Authentic Expertise, With Andy Panko

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 297th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Andy Panko. Andy is the owner of Tenon Financial, a virtual independent RIA that oversees $70 million in assets under management for 43 retired client households. What's unique about Andy, though, is how, shortly after launching his practice, he created a Facebook group so that he could share his expertise directly with the types of clients he wanted to serve… which unexpectedly beca

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Living Like Nothing Matters

A Wealth of Common Sense

According to Bill Bryson, the visible universe is a million million million million miles across. That’s a 1 with 24 zeroes after it (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000). That sounds rather large. But the universe beyond what we can see is even harder to comprehend: The number of light years to the edge of this larger, unseen universe would be written not “with ten zeroes, not even with a hundred, but with million.

Numbers 145
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 11th.

Economy 145
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The Worst Year Ever

The Irrelevant Investor

One of these things is not like the others. A 60/40 portfolio just experienced the worst eight-month stretch to start a year going back to the inception of the Barclay’s aggregate bond index in 1976. One year ago the 10-year rate was 1.32%. It’s 3.35% today. The last time it experienced a 12-month increase that large was in January 2000!

Portfolio 144
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Bear in mind

The Reformed Broker

Okay don’t press the <Buy> because of this but maybe reconsider pressing the <Sell> button if you haven’t already… The AAII sentiment poll hit 60% Bears this week. History says the more pessimistic the investor class becomes, the better the prospective returns look six months out. The way I think about this is that the only thing that could make investors really bearish is a big sell-off in t.

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Inflation Expectations: A Dubious Survey

The Big Picture

One of the things we know about inflation expectations is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell relies heavily on them. He thinks about expectations, gives speeches on them, and uses the data series when enacting Federal Reserve policies to combat inflation. The problem is that all consumer surveys (including inflation expectations) are deeply problematic.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Our Plans to Remain an Independent Company

Wealthfront

Today we announced that together with UBS we decided to terminate our pending acquisition and will instead remain an independent company. We are continuing to explore ways to work together in a partnership and UBS has given us $69.7 million in financing at a $1.4 billion valuation. I am incredibly excited about Wealthfront’s path forward […]. The post Our Plans to Remain an Independent Company appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.

Planning 139
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Why I Remain Bullish on the United States of America

A Wealth of Common Sense

Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 a number of macro doom-and-gloomers began predicting a collapse of the U.S. dollar. The Fed was “printing” trillions of dollars. Interest rates had never been that low before. It was an appealing narrative if you were someone stuck in the negative feedback loop of the biggest economic crash since the Great Depression.

Economics 144
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Housing September 26th Update: Inventory Increased 0.9% Last Week; Hits New Peak for 2022

Calculated Risk

Active inventory increased for the 2nd consecutive week, increasing 0.9% last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years: 2022: +4.9K 2021: -3.7K 2020: -5.2K 2019: -0.3K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 131% since then. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 28.7% year-over-year.

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Animal Spirits: Powell Wants You to Lose Your Job

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts and Tropical Brothers: See here for YCharts September Fund Flow Report See here for tropical gear, free shipping, and sunglass straps on all orders On today’s show we discuss: Weekly market commentary via BlackRock Fed hikes could add $2.1 trillion to deficits 14 charts that explain inflation Full Stack Economics on leaning out of a career to support a signifi.

Economics 139
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Changes in Global Wealth 2021

The Big Picture

Every year, Credit Suisse puts out an in-depth look at wealth around the world (I often pull a chart or two for the reads). The data always has some interesting findings about how the very wealthy are investing, consuming, and otherwise spending their time and money. I don’t always reference it, but intriguing and anomalous findings are always worth sharing.

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Ben Inker, GMO – Dispelling Myths in The Value vs. Growth Debate (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)

Meb Faber Research

Ben Inker, GMO – Dispelling Myths in The Value vs. Growth Debate (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6) Author: Ben Inker is co-head of GMO’s Asset Allocation team and a member of the GMO Board of Directors. Summary: Each year, our team carefully sorts through tons of research from some of the most respected money […]. The post Ben Inker, GMO – Dispelling Myths in The Value vs.

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Navigating the Pain of Your First Bear Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Earlier this week I posted a chart showing how volatile the stock market has been this year: Things have gotten even more volatile since then. This post prompted the following response from someone on Twitter experiencing their first bear market: Yes, there is precedent for this. These are all of the bear markets since World War II: If anything, it’s surprising the current iteration isn’t down more.

Marketing 143
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $6.1 Trillion in Q2

Calculated Risk

The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2022 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $143.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2022. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $7.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.4 trillion. Household debt increased 7.4 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2022.

Nonprofit 145
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It’s All Relative

The Irrelevant Investor

“Did you like it?” The answer to one of the most common questions in the world is not just about whether you liked the thing in question. Your response will depend on reality exceeding or falling short of expectations. How did you like it relative to how you thought you would like it? One of my colleagues told me he enjoyed the new Jurassic Park movie and I absolutely could not believe it.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Happy Labor Day Weekend! We did some amazing stuff on the blogs and podcasts this week. Volatile markets really bring the best out in our writers. Hope you’ve been checking out Ben’s blog, Nick’s blog, Animal Spirits, Portfolio Rescue and all the rest this summer. I think we’re balancing a dose of realism about the current situation with plenty of constructive commentary and some optimism about the.

Portfolio 258
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Labor Day Weekend Employment Charts

The Big Picture

So, it was just Labor Day Weekend, and while we all should be out NOT laboring, I spent part of the long holiday weekend thinking about a few of my favorite FRED charts. Rather than include all of my favorites, I set a challenge for myself: Limit the list to the three most telling charts: U3 Unemployment Rate : When has unemployment been lower than today?

Economy 329
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Episode #445: Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs – Why ESG May Make This Commodity Supercycle Different From Past Cycles

Meb Faber Research

Episode #445: Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs – Why ESG May Make This Commodity Supercycle Different From Past Cycles Guest: Jeff Currie is Goldman Sachs’ global head of Commodities Research. Date Recorded: 9/16/2022 | Run-Time: 47:04 Summary: In today’s episode, Jeff shares why he called for a commodity supercycle almost two years ago and where […].

Investing 128
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How the Fed Screwed Up the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’m not a fan of blaming the Fed for everything you don’t like about the markets or the economy. Markets have always been rigged or manipulated. Truly free markets are a pipe dream. You have to invest in the markets as they are, not as you wish them to be. Having said that, the Fed deserves some blame for what’s going on in the housing market.

Marketing 134
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CoreLogic: House Prices up 15.8% YoY in July

Calculated Risk

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Year-Over-Year Home Price Growth Dips Again in July as Higher Mortgage Rates Cool Demand CoreLogic®. today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for July 2022.

Marketing 145