November, 2022

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Supply Chain Is 40% of Inflation

The Big Picture

. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?

Medicine 363
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Twitter is cigarettes

The Reformed Broker

A lot of reporters and public intellectuals were writing their obituaries for Twitter this weekend. First, we saw the revolt of the Blue Checkmarks. Then, the first inklings of an advertiser exodus. The timing of all this – on the eve of a midterm election that will determine whether or not Americans actually care about democracy – could not have been more ominous.

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Huge Layoffs Including Thousands at Amazon and FedEx in Peak Shipping Season

Mish Talk

Amazon Layoffs Amazon Set to Lay Off Thousands of Corporate Workers The layoffs come as Amazon is undertaking a broad review of costs, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. That review has focused on the devices unit, which the Journal reported has lost $5 billion annually in some recent years. The layoffs could affect about 10,000 employees, though that number could change, the person said.

Numbers 337
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Small Business Retirement Plans – SEP-IRA vs. Solo 401(k)

The Chicago Financial Planner

One of the best tax deductions for a small business owner is funding a retirement plan. Beyond any tax deduction you are saving for your own retirement. As a fellow small businessperson, I know how hard you work. You deserve a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan for your own retirement who will? Two popular small business retirement plans are the SEP-IRA and Solo 401(k).

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Adviser links: a winning model

Abnormal Returns

Podcast Michael Kitces talks with Mindy Crary, owner of Creative Money, about making it clear about fiduciary marketing. (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Kurt Brown, CEO and CIO, of TownSquare Capital. (standarddeviationspod.com) Compliance Jason Zweig, "In 30 years of writing about the financial-advice industry, I never learned that advisers can provide less-comprehensive disclosures than stockbrokers.

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The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…

The Big Picture

Since it is late on a Friday, I thought I might share some quick thoughts about the week. I have been wondering, more than usual, about the disconnect between what we see in falling prices and the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation actions. It is difficult to reconcile Fed rhetoric with the actual price of Goods. One can reach only so many conclusions: Perhaps the Fed is right and everybody else is wrong.

Economy 352
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Glamour

The Reformed Broker

Glamour is a supernatural form of mental compulsion or influence that is specific to vampires. Glamouring is similar to hypnosis, and while all vampires have this power, it needs to be taught as it does not appear to come naturally… The process of glamouring begins with eye contact between a vampire and a respondent. Once eye contact is made, the respondent is held in a trance, making them susceptible to the pow.

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Bitcoin Hits a New 52-Week Low, Where to From Here?

Mish Talk

Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It's now under $16,000. That's OK because 6 months doesn't matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC. Bitcoin Log Chart.

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Boring is Beautiful in Investing

A Wealth of Common Sense

Boring is better this year in the markets. The more exciting your portfolio, the worse your performance is in this bear market. Those old stodgy blue chip stocks in the Dow that pay dividends and have stable cash flows are crushing the innovation-led stocks that have more potential than profits in 2022. This is in stark contrast to the FOMO days of 2020 and 2021 when it felt like the only place to put your money was the.

Investing 143
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Episode #456: Marc Cohodes on SBF, Fraud, & The FTX Death Spiral

Meb Faber Research

Episode #456: Marc Cohodes on SBF, Fraud, & The FTX Death Spiral Guest: Marc Cohodes is a famed short seller with 40-years of experience. He’s best known for exposing fraud at mortgage lender Novastar Financial. Date Recorded: 11/21/2022 | Run-Time: 1:06:23 Summary: Earlier this year, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes, who has investigated and brought […].

Investing 143
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AIA: Architecture Billings Index "decreases considerably" in October

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7, the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings).

Investing 145
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Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?

The Big Picture

My views on inflation continue to evolve: I was correct in identifying inflation during the mid-2000s; during the post-crash 2010s I remained appropriately skeptical about rising prices. The price dynamic during and after the pandemic appeared to be troublesome but my expectations were that inflation would be resolved relatively quickly as supply chains reopened and life returned to normal. “ Transitory ” turned out to be too optimistic, and I was wrong in my expectations for a faster decline in

Economics 335
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This Week On TRB

The Reformed Broker

Just wanted to start by saying thanks to everyone who made a donation to our Long Island Cares food drive for Thanksgiving. The money really goes a long way, we’re going to be making a big difference in the lives of people who need help this holiday season. We shattered the goal dollar-wise and I’m hoping to see a few hundred donated meals this weekend at our drop.

Food 278
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Huge Tech Layoffs Begin, More Coming, Who's On the Chopping Block?

Mish Talk

Twitter Axe Last Friday, Elon Musk cut about half of the company’s work force. That's approximately 3,700 jobs. Many employees did not know until they saw their corporate access blocked. I saw some Tweets in which managers did not even know which of their subordinates were axed. The managers sent emails to their subordinates asking if they still had access.

Planning 328
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The S&P 500 is Not the Economy

A Wealth of Common Sense

Technology stocks make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500. And that number is probably understating things since many of the biggest companies aren’t technically in the tech sector. Amazon and Tesla are two of the biggest holdings in the consumer discretionary sector. Facebook, Google and Netflix are in the communications sector. Many of these companies are now such a part of our lives that it’s difficult to cla.

Economy 140
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The Fingerprints of History

The Irrelevant Investor

There are a handful of times in my life where the first encounter with somebody stayed with me forever. One of those moments was in 2014 (15?) when I met Scott Krisiloff. At the time, Scott was running an asset management company, but the thing that hit me had nothing to do with his day job. He told Josh and I that he was in the process of reading every issue that Time Magazine had ever published, starting in 1923.

Assets 143
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Update: Framing Lumber Prices Close to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through November 8th. Lumber was at $447 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 33% from $663 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Which is Worse: Inflation or Unemployment?

The Big Picture

You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “ Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.”. It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to think about it – and so we have overlooked this for decades. 1. Stop for a moment and consider the original Misery Index formula as invented by the economist Arthur Okun : add the 3.7% unemployment rate ( BLS NFP ) to the 7.7% inflation rate as measured by the c

Economics 322
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Worse Than Enron

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Gregor Macdonald, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the latest on the Sam Bankman-Fried saga, the inverted yield curve, electrification of the power grid, the growth of electric vehicles, peak oil, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Marketing 277
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The Crypto Space Plunges Second Day, The Bottom Was Not In for Bitcoin

Mish Talk

Image from Investing.com yellow highlights and comments are mine. Market Still Reeling From Collapse of FTX Yesterday I noted Crypto Crash Is Led by a Whopping 88 Percent Plunge in FTX Here is the chart I posted yesterday. Today's chart will follow. FTX chart courtesy of CoinDesk. Price points added by Mish. Valuation Plunge The 44 percent rally was due to the announcement of a deal with Binance.

Valuation 306
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Why Are There So Many Cheaters These Days?

A Wealth of Common Sense

It feels like we can’t go a week without some crazy cheating scandal popping up. First, there were the professional fishermen who put lead weights and raw fish fillets into the fish they caught to literally tip the scales in their favor. Then there was the bizarre chess cheating affair where one of the top players in the world was accused of using a vibrating device placed in his rear end.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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RIA CapWealth Wins Legal Battle With SEC Over 12b-1 Disclosures

Wealth Management

CapWealth went up against an SEC staff of eight attorneys, jury experts and two paralegals, and won a rare victory related to share class disclosure conflicts. “This is David and Goliath,” the firm's co-founder said.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 42% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 20%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 5, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 42% above one year ago.

Sales 145
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Six Degrees of Separation

The Big Picture

I wonder how far my view of the universe is from (objective) reality. My pal Dave Nadig suggests that we are all much further away from any sort of recognition of the true universe than we suspect. We chatted about this last week, and the more I thought about it, the further away from reality it turns out that we actually are. Best I can figure, we may all be at least six degrees 1 away from truly comprehending, well, anything: 1.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

We made some industry news this week with the hiring of Ritholtz Wealth Management’s first President. You can read about it at Investment News here. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 (October: 48.2). 3-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 (October: 47.8). 3-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (October: 50.7). 30-month low.

Economy 290
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Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I’ve been minimally invested in bonds as a long-term investor but if I can get 5% or more interest, I’d love to allocate funds and lock that in for as long as possible. I’m looking at corporate investment grade new issues and they largely seem to be callable in a year. While I would be happy if rates came down and I got my principal back in a year, I’d also be happy holding them if they are not call.

Investing 135
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The Wealthfront Cash Account Now Offers $2M in FDIC Insurance

Wealthfront

Today, we’re excited to announce we’ve doubled the FDIC insurance you get on your deposits in a Wealthfront Cash Account. Your Cash Account deposits are now insured for up to $2 million through our partner banks, which is 8x the amount available in a traditional bank account. For joint accounts, Cash Account deposits are now […]. The post The Wealthfront Cash Account Now Offers $2M in FDIC Insurance appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.

Insurance 133