Wild Oil Price Swings on an OPEC Rumor Followed by a Denial

Image courtesy of BarChart.Com annotations by Mish

The Wall Street Journal reports OPEC+ Eyes Output Increase Ahead of Restrictions on Russian Oil

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers are discussing an output increase, the group’s delegates said, a move that could help heal a rift with the Biden administration and keep energy flowing amid new attempts to blunt Russia’s oil industry over the Ukraine war.

After The Wall Street Journal and other news organizations reported on the discussions Monday, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman denied the reports and said a production cut was possible instead.

The White House said the production cut undermined global efforts to blunt Russia’s war in Ukraine. It was also viewed as a political slap in the face to President Biden, coming before the congressional midterm elections at a time of high inflation. Saudi-U.S. relations have hit a low point over oil-production disagreements this year, though U.S. officials had said they were looking to the Dec. 4 OPEC+ meeting with some hope.

The Denial 

Just minutes after the WSJ article now revised to include the denial, Reuters reported Saudi denies oil output hike discussion, says OPEC+ may cut if needed

Saudi Arabia on Monday said that OPEC+ was sticking with oil output cuts and could take further measures to balance the market amid falling prices, denying a report it was considering boosting output, according to state news agency SPA.

The Wall Street Journal earlier on Monday reported an output increase of 500,000 barrels per day was under discussion for the next meeting of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on Dec. 4. The report cited unidentified OPEC delegates.

“It is well-known that OPEC+ does not discuss any decisions ahead of the meeting,” Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman was quoted by state news agency SPA as saying, referring to the group’s next meeting in December.

The WSJ said talk of a production increase has emerged after U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration told a federal court judge that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign immunity from a U.S. federal lawsuit related to the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

It’s difficult to say if the team Biden sponsored this rumor or if it was some sort of trial balloon by OPEC. 

Either way, the reaction was not welcome by OPEC. 

Meanwhile the Biden administration Presses Allies to Tighten Up Sanctions Enforcement on Russia

“There are public reports that Russian money laundering is active in the Arab world,” Ms. Rosenberg told a Union of Arab Banks conference late last month, using unusually pointed language that U.S. officials say was intended as a warning. “This is something we all have a vested interest in preventing, investigating and eliminating.”

Western officials and some senior compliance officers are concerned that banks in Austria, the Czech Republic, and Switzerland—a non-European Union member that has adopted the EU sanctions—are taking a relaxed view of sanctions enforcement. 

If you want much higher oil prices then you should be cheering team Biden here. If not, well, you figure it out.

Comments of the Day

President Biden, the UN, and the Climate Lobby Seek to Spread More Fossil Fuel Misery

In case you missed it, please see President Biden, the UN, and the Climate Lobby Seek to Spread More Fossil Fuel Misery

China says it needs more coal power for energy security and, unlike Europe and the U.S., it won’t commit climate suicide.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Nothing to see here. Gaps will close and then an orderly decline in oil prices will resume.
RonJ
RonJ
1 year ago
“…U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration told a federal court judge
that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign
immunity from a U.S. federal lawsuit related to the killing of Saudi
journalist Jamal Khashoggi.”
It was only recently that the U.S. government allowed compensation for injury caused by the contaminated water at Camp Lejeune, decades ago. Only six people so far, have been approved for compensation for their Covid injection injury. The government is in a state of denial over the vast majority of the injuries.
One of the fictional Lethal Weapon movies had sovereign immunity as a theme.
prumbly
prumbly
1 year ago
The Shuffling Zombie seems to be receiving a ot of “political slaps in the face” these days. Remember when the US had respect in the world? Remember the days when we were led by real statesmen who could negotiate peace deals and trade deals and get people to work together to make the world a better place? And now we having Biden’s temper tantrums, the sanctioning of everyone the administration decides to hate today, and a blank, stupid refusal to negotiate anything.
johnny
johnny
1 year ago
I do have to say, however, that I think oil is due for a significant pullback. I trimmed a lot of my positions down recently. I expect that the 30 year Treasury Bond is going to be the story here in the near future. Long term though, like rest of the 20’s, is going to be good for the King of Commodities and probably the Barbarous Relic as well. I worry that these idiots will trod the well worn ‘road to hell’ though and introduce Windfall Taxes and Price Controls a la Tricky Dicky (may he not rest in peace). Biden is just another version of Nixon, albeit with substantially less faculties. I don’t wanna come off too sanguine here: these are dangerous times. Probably the place to be might just be the Hussman Strategy and hold T-Bills. I just don’t see how we avoid a recession. Anybody else see how we avoid a recession here?
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  johnny
“I do have to say, however, that I think oil is due for a significant pullback.”
Oil prices have already pulled back from $120 to $80. Yet demand is still strong.
Oil demand keeps rising, even during most recessions. Only during severe and deep recessions, does oil demand drop.
World oil demand has grown by an average of 1 Mbpd per year for decades now and is expected to keep growing by 1 Mbpd per year for the rest of this decade.
The problem is going to be: where will the supply come from to meet this growing demand?
Supply is very constrained.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Turkey is the first relay station for Russian oil. From Turkey to Kalamata Greece and from there to anywhere, including : Immingham UK.
Putin have many enemies, but business is business. Enemies always traded with each other, even if they kill each other.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
The only way to get an immediate FED policy response is to drain legal reserves.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
Did you see in 11/21/2022 WSJ: FED’s aggressive rate hikes are a game changer? Monetary policy usually acts on the economy with long and variable lags?
Nothing has changed in 100 years.
Dr. Philip George’s blog The US can weather another interest rate hike (philipji.com)
The US can weather another interest rate hike. Until a couple of years ago I used to regularly post graphs of the monetary measure that I called Corrected Money Supply (CMS). An important part of this measure was that it estimated the amount of precautionary savings held in M1 deposits and subtracted that to arrive at an accurate measure of money.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago

Richard G. Anderson, world’s leading guru on reserve balances: “Spencer, this is an
interesting idea. Since no one in the Fed tracks reserves…”

Bernanke contracted legal
reserves for 29 contiguous months which directly caused the GFC.

It’s exactly as Lawrence K. Roos, Past
President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and past member of the FOMC (the
policy arm of the Fed) as cited in the WSJ April 10, 1986:
“…I do not believe that the control of
money growth ever became the primary priority of the Fed. I think that there
was always and still is, a preoccupation with stabilization of interest
rates”.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
There are always supply shocks, but how the FOMC handles them determines the outcome. In the 70’s, the FED overcompensated. If the FED hadn’t overcompensated with the inelastic price of oil, there would have been a depression in other consumer staples.
“Ben Bernanke’s research team concluded, “an important part of the
effect of oil price shocks [in the 1970s] on the economy results not from the
change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary
policy”.
I.e., Bernanke doesn’t understand inflation. Neither does Scott Sumner: ““I don’t view the monetary aggregate
data as having much predictive value.”
Long-term money flows are decelerating, tightening. June 23 is the likely bottom. But the next couple of months CPI should show a marked decline, as the Cleveland FED’s inflation forecast predicts.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
1 year ago
I was looking at the longer term intraday chart for WTIC this morning. I observed the Elliott wave count was small wave 4, so the larger wave was almost done with a countertrend consolidation to begin. Rumors and denials were only a coincidence.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Where is India on the chart
prumbly
prumbly
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
It isn’t on the chart
Mish
Mish
1 year ago
Comments of the Day
CRS65
CRS65
1 year ago
So, do we ever learn our lessons? In the 1960’s and early 1970’s the medical community had concluded that smoking caused cancer in humans. Instead of policymakers jumping in feet first on behalf of the well-being of Americans, the policymakers prioritized the financial well-being of the large tobacco companies, who were large employers, large taxpayers, and large campaign contributors. How many decades did policymakers take no substantial actions to curtail industry from dumping chemicals and other toxic waste into our rivers and oceans for it got so bad that politicians could no longer ignore the problem. Scientists in the climatology field almost unanimously agree that carbon emissions in the atmosphere trap heat, which is then absorbed into the oceans, causing changes to climate patterns, causing rising sea levels, and causing the acceleration in the melting of glacier ice and polar ice sheets. Are we going to do it again? Are we not going to learn lessons from the past? Are we going to ignore the problem because the solution is inconvenient and potentially costly to certain important employers, large tax payers and campaign contributors?
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  CRS65

The world is not ignoring the problem. In fact, the world is currently attempting a transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy.But it isn’t going well. It is much more difficult than most people expected. We are not building enough renewables to even meet our additional energy demands each year. Which is why our demand for fossil fuels continues to grow every year (or 18 out of the last 20 years anyway). Yet the oil companies got the signals loud and clear to reduce capex spending and slow the supply growth of oil. The result is that we are now in a situation where supply is not going to meet demand as this decade progresses.Which is why I have been heavily invested in oil and gas companies for the last few years. There will be upward pressure on oil and gas prices for the rest of this decade. I can’t change what is happening. But I can recognize what is happening and I can profit from it.

Mish
Mish
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Excellent comment PapaDave
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Mish
Thank you.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Succinct and to the point.
Thank you PapaDave.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Thanks.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Let’s get serious about politicians and existential crises. Being seen to be doing something is far more important that actually doing anything. It gets politicians reelected, and brings in $$$.
I agree on your ‘capex’ and signaling effect, however, this is only part of the problem. We have a disaster in the immediate making, not the result of global climate change, but (liberal) politicians’ responses to it without considering all of the consequences, and the multiplicative effect of non-included risk/uncertainty–it becomes very easy to ‘screw up.’
As I’ve said in the past, the problem with politicizing anything, is that critical thinking stops on both sides. Repeat the message long enough, and even the most stalwart minds succumb, and believe. The purpose of mind control is to establish massive group think–note that I am NOT taking sides. Group think does NOT solve problems. At the end of the day, the result is a farce.
This winter, people in the EU will burn firewood and coal, among other things, to stay warm, offsetting how much green technology? A typical forest fire season in California sets that state (and the USA) back how many years? Throughout the US, people will light their fires and burn wood, sending plumes up the chimney and spreading ash over their solar panels. All over the place, people are burning off this Fall’s leaves… The US still does not have a consistent plan for nuclear energy….. Instead, we have the US assuming liability for other nation’s natural disasters. The potential for fraud is of global scale.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
And yes, I am fully aware of the argument that ‘burning wood’ is not the same as burning ‘fossil fuels.’ However, we are talking EXISTENTIAL CRISIS. It is not an existential crisis if I can can continue to do something, which if not done, would significantly change the crisis and buy more time. IMHO, that is a farce..
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
It won’t be long before the EU bans burning wood and pellets. I give it 3-5 years.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  CRS65
Thanks for the religion. You’d have been great in the Middle Ages.
johnny
johnny
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Denial, like hope, is not a very good strategy. It takes about 40-50 years to transition to a new energy source & that’s ASSuming that the energy sources in question are even viable, which currently they most assuredly are not, unless you’re talking nuclear.
I do like people like you, though. I’ve made a killing on oil, gas & COAL haha.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Actually, he is spot on. Humans are going to continue to add greenhouse gasses to our atmosphere for decades to come and worsen the problem of global warming and climate change.
Again, there is nothing I can personally do to prevent this from happening. I am just one of the 8 billion who contribute to the problem.
But at least I am willing to recognize that the problem exists.
CRS65
CRS65
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
I have no quarrel with any of your comments. My comment above was in response to Mish’s blog post and the tone that he uses relative to global policy makers and their extremely difficult mission to find ways to lower global carbon emissions.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  CRS65
And I was in agreement with almost everything you said. Thank you for the clarification.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  CRS65
“Are we going to ignore the problem because the solution is inconvenient and potentially costly to certain important employers, large tax payers and campaign contributors?”
This and almost all that’s wrong with America stems from campaign funding used as bribery.
“Merchants of doubt” is a great read.
.
prumbly
prumbly
1 year ago
Reply to  CRS65
Burn the witches!
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
“If you want much higher oil prices then you should be cheering team Biden here. If not, well, you figure it out.”
Go team Biden! Lol!

You’ve got to love the volatility. I bought 9 different oil and gas names this morning in my trading account. Sold 4 of them already for big gains.

The story made no sense to me. I figured it would be denied by OPEC eventually.
johnny
johnny
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Go Brandon! He’s helping Energy Investors & helping to bring down an evil empire simultaneously. My popcorn budget has increased commensurately along with my energy & TOBACCO profits.
prumbly
prumbly
1 year ago
Reply to  johnny
By “evil empire” you mean the US, right?
Matt3
Matt3
1 year ago
I had to laugh when I read about “Russian money laundering in active in the Arab world”.
How about US money laundering continuing in Ukraine? I guess that’s just the status quo.
Mish
Mish
1 year ago
Reply to  Matt3
Russia oil is indeed laundered in the MidEast
I wrote about that somewhere.
I think the WSJ chart is bogus. Much more Russian oil is getting through than the chart implies. It has to do with the way we account for country of origin.
Hoot of the Day: Russian Oil Gets to US Via Sanction Loophole
johnny
johnny
1 year ago
Reply to  Mish
How do we get to dictate who can buy oil from whom?
Moreover, how can these Fascists (US & Vassals) cancel out legally purchased & owned Russian Equities in our freedom loving capitalist utopia.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  johnny
Countries can decide to boycott Russian oil, non NATO countries are still buying it.
I personally don’t mind the higher price, instead of wondering what despot or terrorist group my money’s being funneled to.
..
prumbly
prumbly
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
NATO is 30 countries. Out of 195 in the world. So who is it that is isolated?

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