Mon.Nov 21, 2022

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Which is Worse: Inflation or Unemployment?

The Big Picture

You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “ Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.”. It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to think about it – and so we have overlooked this for decades. 1. Stop for a moment and consider the original Misery Index formula as invented by the economist Arthur Okun : add the 3.7% unemployment rate ( BLS NFP ) to the 7.7% inflation rate as measured by the c

Economics 322
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President Biden, the UN, and the Climate Lobby Seek to Spread More Fossil Fuel Misery

Mish Talk

Please consider these COP 27 Closing Statements by the Secretary-General. COP27 took place not far from Mount Sinai, a site that is central to many faiths and to the story of Moses, or Musa. It’s fitting. Climate chaos is a crisis of biblical proportions. Instead of a burning bush, we face a burning planet. Justice for those on the frontlines who did so little to cause the crisis – including the victims of the recent floods in Pakistan that inundated one-third of the country.

Taxes 260
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Increasing Financial Planning Efficiency With A Systematized Annual Process

Nerd's Eye View

A common service model for many financial advisory firms is to schedule annual client meetings throughout the year where the advisor meets with each client in the month they started working with the firm, and conducts a comprehensive review of all planning topics for the client. Which means that on any given workday, advisors might find themselves reviewing one client’s portfolio and another’s estate plan in the morning, and having a meeting with a third client later in the afternoon

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Monday links: taking short positions

Abnormal Returns

Strategy The best uncorrelated asset in a downturn is mindset. (thewaiterspad.com) Why you should spend as little time on investing as possible. (moontower.substack.com) Crypto Coinbase ($COIN) is feeling the effects of the FTX blowup. (observer.com) The discount on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) keeps widening. (theblock.co) Companies Big Tech made the same problem: expecting Covid era behavior to continue.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Wild Oil Price Swings on an OPEC Rumor Followed by a Denial

Mish Talk

Image courtesy of BarChart.Com annotations by Mish. The Wall Street Journal reports OPEC+ Eyes Output Increase Ahead of Restrictions on Russian Oil Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers are discussing an output increase, the group’s delegates said, a move that could help heal a rift with the Biden administration and keep energy flowing amid new attempts to blunt Russia’s oil industry over the Ukraine war.

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Housing November 21st Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -3.0K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -8.9K 2020: -10.5K 2019: -14.7K Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5% from the peak on October 28th.

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Socially Responsible Firms Demand High-Quality Audits

Advisor Perspectives

Socially responsible firms pay more for the external audits of their financial statements, thereby lowering risks to investors. But those lower risks also mean lower returns for investors.

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When Should a Financial Advisor Hire a Junior Advisor?

Prosperity Coaching

When Should a Financial Advisor Hire a Junior Advisor? When you reach 80% of capacity, this is the time to think about and plan to hire your junior advisor. The post When Should a Financial Advisor Hire a Junior Advisor? appeared first on The Prosperous Advisor Coaching Blog.

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Legal Help for Small Investors Is Disappearing

Wealth Management

The number of pro bono legal clinics for retail investors harmed by bad investment advice has fallen dramatically over the past decade, leaving many small-dollar claimants to face arbitration panels alone or, more often, do nothing at all.

Retail 98
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Inflation, Interest Rates and Retirement Planning

Advisor Perspectives

Lifetime annuities in concert with allocations to stocks, TIPS, bond ladders and other diversified investments help retirees weather changing conditions regarding inflation and interest rates.

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Expect Big Enforcement Actions for SEC Ad Rule, According to Former Unit Chief

Wealth Management

As C. Dabney O’Riordan departs the SEC's Asset Management Unit for Quinn Emanuel, she spoke with WealthManagement.com on what the industry can expect from regulators in the coming year around enforcement of new rules: 'I expect the SEC is going to want to send a message.

Assets 98
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Chicago Fed: "Index suggests slower economic growth in October"

Advisor Perspectives

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.05 in October from +0.17 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in October, and three categories deteriorated from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.09 in October from +0.19 in September.

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Top 20 Markets for Forecasted Multifamily Rent Growth

Wealth Management

Even as rent growth slows down compared to earlier in the year, many markets are still seeing strong numbers.

Marketing 123
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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5 Investment Management Options To Consider When Launching Your RIA

XY Planning Network

8 MIN READ. Thinking is free. This is something I occasionally like to remind the entrepreneurs I work with when I begin to sense someone slipping into a mild (or not-so-mild) panic over the seemingly endless list of things to figure out and decisions to make when starting a business. After working with small business owners for over a decade, I am no stranger to the pressure so many people feel to get their ducks in a row, launch, and grow as quickly as possible.

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Eight Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Nov. 22, 2022)

Wealth Management

Investors continue to view commercial real estate favorably in the current market environment, reports Chief Investment Officer. JLL would like to become an SFR landlords, according to The Real Deal. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 20th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

Economy 86
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12 Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Nov. 21, 2022)

Wealth Management

CFO looks at how a new push for corporations to cut expenses is reducing demand for office space. MBA Newslink conducted a roundtable with special servicers on what to expect if a recession takes hold. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October"

Calculated Risk

Note: This is as of October 31st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased by 1 basis point from 0.69% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.70% as of October 31, 2022.

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Seeking Yield and Return Potential With Flexible Multi-Asset Investing

Wealth Management

Market uncertainty, high inflation and rising interest rates have emphasized the importance of flexibility in seeking compelling investment opportunities. A flexible, multi-asset approach can enable investors to adapt to changing market conditions and pursue their objectives.

Assets 98
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Why Non-Transitory Recession is Coming and How to Face it as an Investor

Advisor Perspectives

Recessions are like forest fires – small ones are healthy for the forest. However, the longer you suppress fire, the more dead material the forest accumulates. Eventually, when it does pay a visit, it is more devastating and its effects are more long-lasting. The recession that is coming could be a big fire.

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After a Year of Rapid Rental Hikes, Support for Rent Controls Increased

Wealth Management

Voters in the midterms in a handful of states enacted new rent stabilization measures. What does that mean for multifamily investors?

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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Does Momentum work in Option Markets?

Alpha Architect

This paper explores the question of option momentum by examining what the research says about the performance of option investments across different stocks. Does Momentum work in Option Markets? was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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U.S. Banks Are Tightening Lending Standards, Raising the Risk of a Recession

Wealth Management

The proportion of U.S. banks tightening terms on loans for medium and large businesses and for commercial real estate rose last quarter to levels usually seen during recessions, according to a Fed survey of lending officers released earlier this month.

Banking 97
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Weekly Market Insight – November 21, 2022

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Weekly Market Insights: Markets Down Ahead Of Thanksgiving Holiday. Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC. The stock market edged lower last week as it digested a crosscurrent of conflicting economic data and contrasting comments from Fed officials. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat (-0.01%), while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined by 0.69%.

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Investors Eying Real Estate Shift Focus to Preferred Equity Vehicles

Wealth Management

With lenders becoming more conservative, opportunities have emerged in the capital stack for investors willing to shoulder added risk.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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The Housing Market is Worse Than You Think

Advisor Perspectives

In this letter I’d like to explore the impact interest rates will have on the economy and especially the housing market.

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Six Family Legacy Planning Lessons From NFL Owners

Wealth Management

Lessons learned from professional football team owners on business succession.

Planning 104
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Bond Market’s Inverted Yield Curve Has Something for Everyone

Advisor Perspectives

Right now, investors are getting worried because the yield curve has gotten very inverted — more inverted than it was in the lead-up to either the 2001 or 2008 recessions.

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