The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Today and tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold its 7th Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year. It is given that we will see a 75-basis point increase Wednesday, but what gets said about the meeting on December 13-14 is even more important. The hopes are the Fed indicates a slower pace of rate increases, perhaps as low as 50 basis points in December.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Research Low volatility portfolio returns are regime-dependent. (advisorperspectives.com) How asynchronous trading affects measures of risk. (alphaarchitect.com) A look at strategic diversification of tactical strategies. (priceactionlab.com) Long-short hedge funds are in secular decline. (mathinvestor.org) Future earnings growth is hard to forecast.
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The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Fed Seen Aggressively Hiking to 5%, Triggering Global Recession : Survey of economists sees 75 basis-point hike, then slowing Three-quarters say the Fed will err by doing too much. ( Bloomberg ) see also Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer Buoyed by pandemic-fueled savings, consumers and businesses are proving less sensitive to tighter credit—complicating the Fed’s job. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Revenge of the Dow : Chang
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Markets How major asset classes performed in October 2020. (capitalspectator.com) Don't be surprised to see the stock market rally before the economy bottoms out. (finance.yahoo.com) Strategy Joe Wiggins, "There is a stigma attached to saying “I don’t know”, not just in the investment industry but in many walks of life." (behaviouralinvestment.com) Nick Maggiulli, " The present is redefining your past.
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Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Welcome back to the 305th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Mindy Crary. Mindy is the owner of Creative Money, an independent RIA based in Seattle, Washington, that offers a unique 12-month financial planning engagement – or as Mindy puts it on her homepage, “financial planning that doesn’t suck” – which has allowed her firm to work with nearly 400 client households just this year.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
CapWealth went up against an SEC staff of eight attorneys, jury experts and two paralegals, and won a rare victory related to share class disclosure conflicts. “This is David and Goliath,” the firm's co-founder said.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Final Trades: Pharma, Chevron, Uber & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red).
The Irrelevant Investor
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Masterworks and AcreTrader: See here to learn more about investing in contemporary art and here for important disclosures* See here for more information on how to invest in farmland On today’s show we discuss: Three things dampening the pain (The Irrelevant Investor) Cash-rich consumers could mean higher interest rates for longer The economy is still in a post-pande.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings increased to 10.7 million on the last business day of September , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The number of hires edged down to 6.1 million, while total separations decreased to 5.7 million. Within separations, quits (4.1 million) changed little and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) edged down. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, D
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
I’m not a huge fan of the Federal Reserve’s current policy choices. They obviously had to do something about the persistently high inflation but I think they run the risk of overdoing it. The magnitude of their interest rate hikes increases the risk of something breaking in the financial system. The Fed is in a tough spot because they acted too late but also because they don’t want inflation to get so ba.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during September 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,811.1 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,807.0 billion. The September figure is 10.9 percent above the September 2021 estimate of $1,632.9 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
Indigo Marketing Agency
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
On his podcast Bridging The Gap , host Matt Reiner recently welcomed our founder, Claire Akin, to dig into the basics of embracing a speciality and the importance of marketing “you” as a person and not necessarily “you” as a brand or company—just to scratch the surface! This is a must-listen for any advisor wondering how to grow their business more naturally and in a way that benefits everyone.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2023? A brief excerpt: The Official Limits will be released On Tuesday, November 29th. This graph shows the CLL since 1979. Note that during periods when house prices decline, the CLL is not reduced. The CLL was at $417,000 from 2006 through 2016, and only increased slightly in 2017 as the house price index caught back up to the previous high reached during the housing
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Our panel of industry experts explores when and why it may make the most sense for financial planners to include advice and insurance services in their menu of client services.
Integrity Financial Planning
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
During your saving years, your main goal is to accumulate wealth so that you have the resources to achieve a comfortable retirement. But that is just half the battle. How you use your savings to cover your living costs is the real key to living the retirement you dream of. You may have done some research on what strategies you can use to provide yourself with the income and liquid cash you need to cover your expenses in retirement and come across a few general, cookie-cutter strategies, such as
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Dr. Preston Cherry is the founder of Concurrent Financial Planning, president of the Financial Therapy Association and head of financial planning at the Austin E. Chofrin School of Business and director of the Charles Schwab Center for Personal Financial Planning.
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Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: While Buyer Demand Cools, Home Prices Dropped by 0.5% in September From the Previous Month CoreLogic®. today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2022.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Multiple publications look at the impact of rising interest rates on various aspects of the commercial real estate business, including debt availability and office valuations. Apartment evictions are back on a grand scale as federal emergency measures have run out, reports Bisnow. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
No exposure to domestic equities. No exposure to international equities. No exposure to REITs. Full exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds. DIY Trend-Following Allocations: November 2022 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
One Shein distribution center, located in Whitestown, Indiana, is already operational and could reduce shipping times by up to four days. It currently has 800 employees, with plans to have 1,000 by the end of this year. A second facility is expected to open in Southern California by the spring of 2023.
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All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
The catalyst for this post is the following chart I saw on Twitter. We've been talking about merger arbitrage as a bond proxy in the various places where I've blogged and written for more than 10 years. Here's maybe a more practical comparison via Portfoliovisualizer. Portfolio 1 is 60% SPDR S&P 500/40% iShares Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and Portfolio 2 is 60% SPY/40% Merger Fund (MERFX).
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
The move allows the company to focus solely on the wealth management business; Blucora stock climbed 9% on the news.
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
By Kou Takaku By taking advantage of online meetings, we can handle any case at any point in the process, no matter where the client is and no matter how busy prospects are. Online meetings are ideal for quick drop-in virtual visits with prospects, which is important for building relationships with them. For example, you can ask a client to introduce prospects to you so they can participate in the first 10 minutes of the meeting.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Mark D. Cunningham said he joined with the RIA after seeking out a potential partner that would “anchor on financial planning.
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Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.
Investing Caffeine
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Halloween is a scary time, and the stock market has experienced a frightening 2022 as well. If you turn on the television or read the news, you may think Armageddon has arrived, the last battle of biblical proportion between good and evil. Fortunately, reality is often less dire than the headlines make it appear. Given the horrific -19% decline in the stock market (S&P 500 index) this year, arguably much of the current and future dreadful news is already expected and discounted into today’s
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Which markets saw the highest office investment volumes in the first three quarters of the year?
MazumaBusinessAccounting
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Starting a business is a dream that many people have. The idea of creating something that is your own, being your own boss, and being able to turn your passion into a full-time job is compelling. In order to be successful and make your small business idea come to life, you have to take time to figure out all aspects of your business to see if it has potential.
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