Thu.Nov 17, 2022

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Supply Chain Is 40% of Inflation

The Big Picture

. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?

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US Treasury Yield Curve Is One of the Most Inverted in History

Mish Talk

Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal. Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible I's unusual for the Fed to be this candid but Kansas City Fed President Esther George says Reducing Inflation Without a Rece

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train WFH reads: • Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced boy king of crypto, explained : He was a billionaire who had quickly amassed political and philanthropic influence. What happened? ( Vox ). • Electric Vehicles Start to Enter the Car-Buying Mainstream : While sales are still skewed toward affluent buyers, more people are choosing electric vehicles to save money. ( New York Times ) see also Toyota to Unveil New Prius as Hybrids Lose Luster to Battery EVs : Sales of the pioneering hybr

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Kitces & Carl Ep 99: What Does It Take For You To Find The Confidence To Take Action?

Nerd's Eye View

For many financial advisors, improving business development strategies can be a challenging task to address. With the myriad tools available to advisors that help them analyze the potential outcomes of their ideas and strategies, collecting the data to do so has become easier than ever. At the same time, though, over-analyzing strategies prior to implementing them can create a substantial gap between ideating a plan and actually putting it into motion.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Longform links: the rise of the influencer

Abnormal Returns

Book stores Jason Guriel, "The [book] shop’s most valuable contribution is its calm, authoritative curation." (longreads.com) How opening a book store made Ryan Holiday a better writer. (ryanholiday.net) Science Science PhDs increasingly head to industry instead of academia. (statnews.com) It's going to hard to avoid using GMOs as climate, and temperatures, change.

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Thursday links: crypto irrelevance

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. Treasury yield curve is firmly inverted. (axios.com) Average mortgage rates dropped nearly 50bp last week. (cnn.com) The magazine cover indicator: the U.S. dollar edition. (allstarcharts.com) Lessons Three lessons from the collapse of FTX including 'putting your emotions in check.' (pragcap.com) Betting on unknown quantities is the nature of venture capital.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: GM, CVS, Nextera & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 45% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 18%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 12, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 45% above one year ago.

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Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I’ve been minimally invested in bonds as a long-term investor but if I can get 5% or more interest, I’d love to allocate funds and lock that in for as long as possible. I’m looking at corporate investment grade new issues and they largely seem to be callable in a year. While I would be happy if rates came down and I got my principal back in a year, I’d also be happy holding them if they are not call.

Investing 135
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000 , a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 225,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average.

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12 Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Nov. 18, 2022)

Wealth Management

National Mortgage News looks at what 2023 might bring in the world of real estate investment financing. Bisnow looks at the challenges diversity officers face when it comes to CRE firms. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Adam Sachs Honored with the Inaugural NAIFA President’s Citation

NAIFA Advisor Today

NAIFA President Lawrence Holzberg , LACP, LUTCF, is pleased to announce that Adam Sachs , CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, CLTC, AIF®, a Financial Advisor with Centinel Financial Group , LLC, in Needham, MA, is the recipient of the inaugural 2023 NAIFA President’s Citation. Holzberg presented the citation to Sachs on November 14 at NAIFA’s Belong awards celebration at the Omni Shoreham in Washington, D.C. in front of over 300 NAIFA members.

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LPL Details Plans to Move Into Private Wealth

Wealth Management

Executives outline plans to roll out private wealth services, and move deeper into the enterprise market targeting trust banks and insurance companies.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Massachusetts ‘Millionaires’ Tax Applies to Sudden Wealth Events

Darrow Wealth Management

Taxachusetts is back. In November 2022, proponents of the Massachusetts ‘millionaires’ tax (question 1) won their bid to nearly double the income tax rate on individuals with taxable income over $1M a year. Starting in 2023, a 4% surtax will be applied to taxable income and capital gains over $1M. Currently, Massachusetts taxes ordinary income and long-term capital gains at a flat 5% rate whereas short-term capital gains are taxed at 12%.

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Why Real Estate Investors Are Paying More Attention to RV Parks and Campgrounds

Wealth Management

RV parks have grown in popularity with consumers during the pandemic. Investors have noticed the trend.

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Top Estate Planning Resources for Financial Planners

eMoney Advisor

It turns out that nearly a third of Americans would rather do anything else than create a will. 1 Even after Americans’ collective experience of loss during the 2020 onset of the pandemic, we resist thinking about our own mortality. A bit less than half of U.S. adults today (46 percent) have a will, which has been the case for the decades that Gallup has asked this question. 2.

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U.S. Housing Starts Drop with Pullback in Single-Family Projects

Wealth Management

Residential starts decreased 4.2% last month to a 1.43 million annualized rate after an upward revision to the prior month, according to government data released Thursday. Single-family homebuilding dropped to an annualized 855,000 rate, the lowest since May 2020.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Why you’ll be out of business unless you focus on what clients need next

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Corry Collins, CLU, CH.F.C. In my long career, I’ve found this important lesson to be true: If the rate of change outside your business is greater than inside your business, you are out of business. One area where we see a lot of change is technology, and using technology is no longer a choice. They say 80% of the internet is now video. We see robo-advisors, we find advice-free online sales of mutual funds and what was known as identity theft is now known as synthetic cyber identity creation.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: Steward Partners' Jim Gold on Why Supported Independence Is Thriving

Wealth Management

Steward Partners CEO and founding partner Jim Gold revisits the series to discuss the firm's evolution and growth, plus being the first to sign-on to the Goldman Sachs custodial platform, and more.

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The Compound and Friends: Worse Than Enron

The Irrelevant Investor

*Today’s show is presented by Liftoff® On today’s show we discuss: US regulators are probing FTX over the handling of client funds SBF tries to explain himself The wildest parts of the new FTX bankruptcy filing How SBFs crypto empire collapsed Before the FTX collapse, SBF poured millions into pandemic prevention Electric Candyland Building clean Speed of solar Listen here: Gregor Macdona.

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RIA Edge Podcast: Brandon Kawal on How to Win the War for Talent in the RIA Industry

Wealth Management

The principal of Advisor Growth Strategies details the keys to attracting, developing and retaining top talent in the RIA industry.

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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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 How Some Banks Avoid Paying You a High APY

Wealthfront

When you’re shopping around to find a good home for your cash, you might see some very high APYs advertised. At first, this probably seems like a good thing. However, if you dig into the fine print for some of these accounts, you’ll notice that the advertised rate can actually have all kinds of strings […]. The post <strong> </strong>How Some Banks Avoid Paying You a High APY appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.

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Dave Hagen on Accessing Data Seamlessly from Multiple Sources

Wealth Management

Dave Hagen, chief commercial officer of BridgeFT, explains how technology can make better data more easily available.

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Feasible Defeasance

Aleph

Photo Credit: gelbachdesigns || Pay less to pay off your debt. For some people/entities with home/commercial mortgages, for the first time in a while, it is possible to invest in US Treasuries at rates higher than the rate on your mortgage. Now there are complexities around this, but let me give an example of how this might work. I’m affiliated with a group that owns a building worth $3.5 million, with a first mortgage loan of $470K @ 3.8% AEY [Annual Equivalent Yield], and a second mortga

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Wealth Enhancement Group Adds BTR Capital Management, More Than $1B in Assets

Wealth Management

In its 12th acquisition this year, WEG adds a ninth office in Northern California.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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A Random Walk Down Wall Street” Still Holds Up Today

Validea

In a review for CityWireUSA , Alex Rosenberg maintains that A Random Walk Down Wall Street , written by Burton Malkiel and first published in 1973, is still “the best investing primer” that he knows. 40 years ago, index funds didn’t even exist, but Malkiel was advising his readers to buy and hold them—advice that was years ahead of its time. Malkiel believed that markets are unpredictable, and trying to beat the market is a waste of time.

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Family Offices With $182 Billion Eye More Big Gains on PE Bets

Wealth Management

Money managers for the ultra-wealthy plan to increase their allocation to private equity in 2023, according to a new survey.

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Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Activity Continues Decline

Advisor Perspectives

The latest index came in at -6, up 1 from last month, indicating contraction in November. The future outlook inched up to 0. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.