Fri.Sep 23, 2022

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You’re not good at this.

The Reformed Broker

A recession so contrived and man-made that every economist, politician, business owner, college student, CEO, rapper and professional athlete has been able to see it coming in real-time for months and months… Take a picture, you may never see anything so obviously about to happen ever again. A child could have foreseen it. At a certain point, a person who is charge of price stability should probably look in the mirr.

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2023 Ferrari Purosangue

The Big Picture

The Devil must be strapping on his ice skates: Ferrari just introduced the Purosangue, a 4-door, 4-seater SUV crossover. We should not be surprised. Other sports car makers have embraced the SUV to great success: The Cayenne (literally) saved Porshe from bankruptcy; Lamborghini Urus helped drive the company’s worth to ~$11 billion. That Maranello wants some of that juice reveals how the modern world of ultra-luxury playthings works.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Sept 24-25)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the SEC has issued a risk alert putting advisors on notice that examiners will be conducting a number of reviews to evaluate how firms are complying with the Commission’s new marketing rule, which it will begin to enforce starting November 4.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week autumnal morning reads: • Navigating the Pain of Your First Bear Market : In the coming 40-50 years I’m planning on experiencing at least 10 or more bear markets, including 5 or 6 that constitute a market crash in stocks. There will also probably be at least 7-8 recessions in that time as well, maybe more. ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • Your City’s Housing Boom Could Go Bust : A national decline in home prices is unlikely, but markets that have experienced outsized increases over t

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Podcast links: nuclear misconceptions

Abnormal Returns

The biz Are the days of the blockbuster podcast long gone? (vulture.com) Frederick Geischen talks with Patrick O'Shaughnessy about building Colossus into a self-perpetuating learning machine. (manual.withcompound.com) Spotify ($SPOT) is going to start offering audiobooks on the platform. (theverge.com) Business Nilay Patel talks supply chains with Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen.

Economy 130

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Navigating the Pain of Your First Bear Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Earlier this week I posted a chart showing how volatile the stock market has been this year: Things have gotten even more volatile since then. This post prompted the following response from someone on Twitter experiencing their first bear market: Yes, there is precedent for this. These are all of the bear markets since World War II: If anything, it’s surprising the current iteration isn’t down more.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 28% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 10%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 17, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, and improved 28% above one year ago.

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How Are CRE Lenders Responding to the Fed’s New Loan Workout Recommendations?

Wealth Management

The Federal Reserve, in tandem with several other government organizations, recently asked the industry for feedback on its new proposal for dealing with troubled loans.

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Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: There is a significant difference between measures of inventory, and this is leading to some confusion. Here is a graph comparing the year-over-year change in Realtor.com’s active inventory, the NAR’s inventory, and Realtor.com inventory including pending sales.

Sales 96
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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DeVoe Summit Dealmakers Offer Advice to Would-Be Sellers

Wealth Management

Industry leaders at the DeVoe & Co. M&A+ Succession Summit discuss the importance of seeing beyond valuations to successfully seal a deal and fuel inorganic growth.

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Why clients should be forever clients

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Bryce Sanders In my opinion, all your clients should be forever clients. I understand some people do not think that way. When they are starting out (and new to the business) they claim, “I will take anyone.” As they become successful and their practice moves upmarket into the high-net-worth space, they drop their “little clients” who were with them from the beginning.

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RIA Edge Podcast: Lisa Salvi on The Secrets of Top-Performing RIAs

Wealth Management

Schwab Advisor Services' Lisa Salvi offers insights into the human capital and professional management approaches driving the growth of the industry’s top firms.

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Meet Our #XYPNLIVE 2022 Exhibitors!

XY Planning Network

10 MIN READ. Every year at #XYPNLIVE we have a one-of-a-kind Exhibit Day. What makes it so special? We're not interested in wasting your time—that's why we've done the research and invited only those who are most relevant to your practice. Re:inventing your practice with the help of the best partners available just got easier. Exhibit Day provides attendees with an entire day dedicated to connecting with representatives from top companies in our industry, and it's one of the most action-packed d

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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WealthStack Roundup: News From Elements, Skience, Fidelity, Docupace, Pontera and Northern Trust

Wealth Management

From personnel updates—Pontera gets a CMO—to a one-page plan from startup Elements, it was a busy week in advisor tech.

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6 Key Tips For Living Debt Free!

Clever Girl Finance

Living debt free in today’s world can sound like a tough proposition. From student loans to credit cards to car notes, the opportunities to take on debt are endless. But if you’re committed to a debt free lifestyle, it’s certainly possible with the right mindset and a solid strategy. Let’s check out the good and bad of debt free living, then dive into some tips for making it happen and living a debt free life!

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Preserving Retirement Funds During Inflation

Wealth Management

Asset classes like equities and real estate generally outgrow inflation.

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Bearish Managers Flee Stocks

Validea

Worried about a possible global recession, “super bearish” fund managers are swiftly exiting equities and taking refuge in cash, reports an article in CityWireUSA that cites the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. The survey shows managers who are growing more and more concerned about a recession, and have increased cash allocations from 5.7% to 6.1%.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Fourteen Top Destinations For Remote Work

Wealth Management

Here’s how to apply for some of the most popular digital nomad visas around the world.

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50 Money Affirmations That Work Fast To Change Your Mindset

Clever Girl Finance

With so many messages bombarding us from every direction, it can be tough to stick to our goals. But when you can focus your mind on the things that matter most, it makes all the difference. That’s why money affirmations that work fast can be so powerful. Money affirmations that you repeat to yourself on a regular basis can help you to make better financial decisions.

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Is Congress Considering a Charitable Deduction Revival?

Wealth Management

An update on philanthropy legislation from Capitol Hill.

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Dalio: 4.5% Rates Would Tank Stocks 20%

Validea

In a dismal forecast, founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio wrote that interest rates will need to rise into the 4.5% to 6% range in order to truly combat inflation, which will drag private sector credit growth, spending and the entire economy down. He made the prediction in a LinkedIn piece that is cited in a Bloomberg article. Even just increasing rates to 4.5% would result in equity prices plummeting 20%, Dalio said.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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LA Port Traffic: Inbound Declined in August

Calculated Risk

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

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Stock Trade Prices Vary Widely Among Brokers

Validea

Investors get a wide range of prices of stock trades depending on which broker they use, according to a study that’s cited in an article in The Wall Street Journal. Out of the half a dozen most popular brokerages, TD Ameritrade offered the best prices while Interactive Brokers Group, which caters to day traders, had the worst. Most investors aren’t aware of the disparities in the prices between brokers, the lead author of the study, Christopher Schwarz of the University of California, Irvine, to

Numbers 59
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Q3 GDP Tracking: Close to 1%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: On net, August data on housing starts and existing home sales boosted our tracking estimate for residential investment modestly. After rounding, however, our 3Q US GDP tracking remained unchanged at 0.8% qoq saar. [September 23rd estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.2% (qoq ar). [September 21st estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third qu

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Value Investing Opportunities in Asia

Validea

In an interview with Bloomberg TV , Ken Wong of Eastspring Investments said that because the Fed’s interest rate hikes aren’t necessarily factoring in the continuing war in Ukraine, China’s ongoing strict Covid policies and the high minimum wage in the U.S., the central bank could choose instead to ease up on monetary policies or introduce QE if more extreme measures are necessary.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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The Latest on the Economy, Interest Rates and the Stock Market

Mullooly Asset Management

The state of the economy continues to make headlines here in 2022. So in this week’s podcast, Tom, Brendan and Casey discuss what is actually happening in the economy. They share their thoughts on the latest moves by the Federal Reserve and breakdown what they are seeing with interest rates, stock market earnings, housing and […] The state of the economy continues to make headlines here in 2022.

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Rising Bond Yields Cause Trouble For Stocks

Validea

Bond yields could threaten a shaky market as they rise to their highest trading levels in over 10 years, reports an article in The Wall Street Journal. As interest rates have been raised, yields across the whole of the Treasury market have climbed so high that less than 16% of stocks in the S&P 500 are yielding dividends greater than the 2-year U.S.

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DeVoe Summit Deal-Makers Offer Advice to Would-Be Sellers

Wealth Management

Industry leaders at the DeVoe & Co. M&A+ Succession Summit discuss the importance of seeing beyond valuations to successfully seal a deal and fuel inorganic growth.