Fri.Nov 25, 2022

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The Best 50-Year-Old Investing Advice Money Can Buy : Nearly 50 years ago, the economist Burton Malkiel came out with a book that said, in effect, that all of us should be in index funds. The stock and bond markets incorporate new information into prices almost instantly, so trying to beat them is a fool’s errand, Malkiel wrote.

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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 (October: 48.2). 3-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 (October: 47.8). 3-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (October: 50.7). 30-month low.

Economy 290
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Grinch: Ignore Black Friday Retail Forecasts

The Big Picture

It’s Black Friday and you know what that means: Lots of promotional sales and lots of holiday retail spending forecasts. You can rely on the latter being ubiquitous and wrong; some by a little, most by a lot. At least, that’s what the statistically likely outcome is. As we have seen historically , holiday sales forecasts tend to be a reflection of people’s mood at the moment — not an actual measure of intended holiday spending.

Retail 290
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Past Performance

The Reformed Broker

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Of course it isn’t. Things change. Especially if we’re referring to the past performance of a particular investment strategy, portfolio manager, mutual fund or individual stock. But past performance of asset classes should be well understood. Especially the kind of past performance that’s taken place over longer stretches of time.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Friday links: old patterns

Abnormal Returns

Markets How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. (awealthofcommonsense.com) FTX Is the FTX blow up the end of crypto? (economist.com) Why did so many people have a blind spot for FTX? (on.ft.com) Why does Alameda Research own a stake in Farmington State Bank? (nytimes.com) LedgerX is one of the few FTX subsidiaries that did not file for bankruptcy.

More Trending

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Podcast links: revisiting Moneyball

Abnormal Returns

The biz Spotify's ($SPOT) Anchor now allows creators to use a 'one-button voice isolation feature.' (engadget.com) You have to invest upfront to create evergreen content. (casted.us) Companies Ben Thompson talks housing with Eric Wu, CEO of Opendoor ($OPEN). (stratechery.com) Matt Reustle talks with Nima Shayegh who is Managing Partner at Rumi Capital Partners about the business of Brookfield Asset Management ($BAM).

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The S&P 500 is Not the Economy

A Wealth of Common Sense

Technology stocks make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500. And that number is probably understating things since many of the biggest companies aren’t technically in the tech sector. Amazon and Tesla are two of the biggest holdings in the consumer discretionary sector. Facebook, Google and Netflix are in the communications sector. Many of these companies are now such a part of our lives that it’s difficult to cla.

Economy 140
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How to Create a Video Content Plan

Twenty Over Ten

Video marketing is no stranger to modern businesses-87% of marketing professionals use video as a marketing tool. For good reason, too: an impressive 85% of internet users in the United States regularly watch video content.

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Case-Shiller, FHFA House Prices Indexes and Conforming Loan Limits will be released on Tuesday

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller, FHFA House Prices Indexes and Conforming Loan Limits will be released on Tuesday Brief excerpt: Last week, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that median house prices were up 6.6% year-over-year (YoY) in October. This is down from the peak growth rate of 25.2% YoY in May 2021.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Random Thoughts on the Russian War in Ukraine (Hint: It’s Not Going Well for Russia)

Advisor Perspectives

The following is a loose collection of random thoughts and observations on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rather than a coherent article, I offer some insights that have emerged as the war has dragged on.

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Taking RMDs This Year Doesn’t Mean You Have to Sell at a Loss.

Yardley Wealth Management

The post Taking RMDs This Year Doesn’t Mean You Have to Sell at a Loss. appeared first on Yardley Wealth Management, LLC. Taking RMDs This Year Doesn’t Mean You Have to Sell at a Loss. A lot of people are concerned with taking their Required Minimum Distributions from their IRA this year because everything is down. If you don’t need the money to live on, though, it doesn’t need to be a concern.

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COVID Nov 25, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays. On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data has switched to weekly. Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666. COVID Metrics Now Week Ago Goal New Cases per Week 2 ?? 305,082 281,691 ?35,000 1 Hospitalized 2 21,293 21,578 ?3,000 1 Deaths per Week 2 ?? 2,644 2,266 ?350 1 1 my goals to stop weekly posts, 2 Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths ??

Numbers 52
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Three Income Themes for Multi-Asset Investors in 2023

Advisor Perspectives

In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.

Assets 52
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Google's Helpful Content Update: What Advisors Need To Know

Advisor Websites

One of the biggest discussions this year in the SEO sphere has been Google’s “Helpful Content” update in August 2022.

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Investing for the Next Decade

Advisor Perspectives

Franklin Templeton recently hosted an investment forum in Singapore, and much of the dialog pointed to a growing gap in growth outlook emerging between Asia and the West.

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Alternatives Often Shine When Stocks and Bonds Burn with David Copeland

Steve Sanduski

David Copeland is a principal and co-founder of Strategic Wealth Partners , an RIA firm with approximately $3.7 billion in assets under advisement as of December 31, 2021. He founded Strategic Wealth Partners in 2008 after serving as Senior Managing Director with Mesirow Financial for 21 years. He has also held investment positions with Merrill Lynch and commercial banking positions with Harris Bank.

Assets 52
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US Jobless Claims Hit Three-Month High as Labor Market Cools

Advisor Perspectives

Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week to a three-month high amid a wave of layoffs at technology companies, a sign of cooling in a tight labor market.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 20 States in October

Calculated Risk

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2022. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 36 states, decreased in 11 states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 50. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states , decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, for a one-month diffusion index of -4.

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SEC to Push Bond and Option Brokers for Better Prices on Trades

Advisor Perspectives

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s draft plans to overhaul rules for the stock market would also expand its oversight of bond and options trading.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Nov 26-27)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the Biden administration’s Department of Labor (DoL) is planning to propose its own ‘fiduciary rule’ that seeks to create higher standards than the rule put in place by the Trump administration (though perhaps not as tough as the Obama administration’s original ‘fiduciary rule’ proposal).

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Tesla a Bargain as It Nears Morgan Stanley Bear Case

Advisor Perspectives

After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts are saying the share-price decline has gone far enough.

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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Markets Mixed in Return from Holiday

Advisor Perspectives

U.S. equities are mixed in pre-market trading, but the markets are on track to post weekly gains for the holiday-shortened week.

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Buy Chinese Stocks and Sell Big US Tech Brands, BofA’s Hartnett Says

Advisor Perspectives

The chorus of strategists turning bullish on Chinese stocks is getting louder by the day, with Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett the latest to recommend the nation’s equities as a top buy for 2023.

Banking 59
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Looking Up

Advisor Perspectives

Vivek Tanneeru, portfolio manager, sees structural and cyclical tailwinds converging for emerging markets equities.

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Thanksgiving Is Getting To Be An Expensive Habit

Advisor Perspectives

Inflation has spread to our holiday celebrations.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Will Crypto Survive?

Advisor Perspectives

With a storyline full of celebrities, politicians, sex, and drugs, the future looks bright for producers of feature films and documentaries about the astonishing collapse of FTX.

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Student Loan Borrowers Lose Faith in Biden’s Forgiveness Plan

Advisor Perspectives

For student loan borrowers, President Joe Biden’s forgiveness plan seemed too good to be true. And now they fear that maybe it was.